Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s prominent unsigned prospects.
On this edition of the Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp, we will be analyzing breakout AHLer Jeremy Bracco.
Drafted back in 2015 in the second round, Bracco has been a top prospect since his arrival in the organization. After switching from the NCAA to the CHL, Bracco spent two seasons in the OHL with the Kitchener Rangers and the Windsor Spitfires.
He joined the Toronto Marlies in 2017 as a depth forward, evolving into a major offensive contributor this past season. Bracco has cemented himself within the Toronto Maple Leafs top prospect lists, but his future in the organization is uncertain for a multitude of reasons. Let’s jump into what makes Jeremy Bracco such a fascinating player.
Season in Review
Bracco had an intriguing rookie season in the AHL in 2017-18. In a depth role, he failed to find the scoresheet often enough to earn promotion up the lineup. When Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen found themselves in the NHL, however, Bracco excelled, posting point per game totals down the stretch.
Still, it wasn’t enough to keep him in the lineup for the Calder Cup Playoffs, which he watched from the press box as the Marlies went on to win the championship.
With the number of graduates up front, Bracco was going to be tasked with becoming a dynamic offensive scorer for the Marlies in 2018-19 if they were to have any reasonable amount of success.
That’s exactly what Bracco did. Paired with Chris Mueller on the top line, Bracco burst out for 22 goals and 79 points in 75 games to lead the team in scoring, falling just three points shy of the league lead.
His year-long scoring prowess was vital for the Marlies. Mueller missed 16 games, Sam Gagner and Carl Grundstrom left the team midseason after being traded, and Trevor Moore earned a callup. This left the Marlies with Dmytro Timashov third in scoring, a whopping 30 points behind Bracco’s 79 point mark.
Bracco’s scoring didn’t dry up in the playoffs either, as he was a significant reason for the team’s surprisingly deep run. In 13 games, Bracco’s 16 points were the most on the Marlies by six. Among players making it past the first round, he was the fourth most productive league-wide, behind Brad Malone (13 points in 10 games, 1.30 PPG), Andrew Poturalski (23 points in 18 games, 1.28 PPG), and Sonny Milano (10 points in 8 games, 1.25 PPG).
What really made Bracco stand out from the rest of the pack was his powerplay abilities. He led the league in powerplay points with 39, with five more assists on the man advantage than the next best in Cal O’Reilly and Seth Griffith (both of which are former Marlies, funny enough).
In the postseason, Bracco also led the league in powerplay points despite playing nine fewer games than the Chicago Wolves.
Statistically Speaking
From an analytical perspective, Jeremy Bracco both really excites me and worries me at the NHL level.
79 points in the AHL is impressive. Doing so at 21 years of age upon receiving top-line minutes is exactly what you would want from a player such as Bracco. Where my concern lies is his even-strength play and his reliance on the powerplay to generate points.
Nearly half of Bracco’s points this past season came on the man advantage. That’s promising for his future on the powerplay at the NHL level, but it leaves you wanting more from the rest of his game.
From The Faceoff Circle, Bracco’s 5v5 Corsi-for percentage relative to his teammates was a disappointingly low -5.7%, among the lowest for regulars on the Marlies in his 40-game tracked sample.
Compare this to Trevor Moore, who in his 32 game sample posted a team-high + 9.4 percent CF%rel.
There’s no denying Bracco’s elite offensive skillset, though, which revolves around his passing ability.
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In this chart from Mitch Brown, we can see the data backs up the eye test on Bracco’s game.
His passing is what drives his game. He ranks in the 98th percentile in shot assists per 20 minutes, while his individual expected goals per 20 are down in the 21st percentile.
This makes complete sense when watching Bracco play. He is a wizard in the offensive zone, using his incredible edge work to dance around the perimeter in order to create space for his teammates and feather passes through defenders. When a passing lane doesn’t emerge, low-quality shots are thrown on the net.
Bracco’s possession style is also evident in the data. He has lots of success when entering and exiting zones with control, another factor in his powerplay success.
It’s clear using both the eye test and analytics as to why Bracco is so effective on the powerplay, yet lacks an element to his game at even strength. Bracco’s passing abuses the defence when the opposition is a man down. His ability to create shots with his playmaking is NHL quality.
While this is a fantastic skill to own, it might not be enough to crack an NHL top six, especially on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Bracco doesn’t have the defensive game to play a traditional bottom-six role and his playmaking might not be enough on its own to get him that high up in an NHL lineup.
We’ve seen this in his two seasons with the Marlies. Bracco was lackluster in a depth role in 2017-18 when he finished the season with 32 points in 50 games, which was boosted by his 15 points in the final 13 games when he received top-line minutes.
Whether there is a formula for Bracco to be effective at the NHL level remains to be seen, but there is no denying he could fail to reach the next level and become a “AAAA” forward.
Contract
Jeremy Bracco’s contract situation makes it even tougher for him to make the Toronto Maple Leafs out of camp.
In the final year of his entry-level contract, Bracco does not require waivers for the 2019-20 season.
With the sheer number of waivers eligible depth pieces brought in to the organization over the past month, from Pontus Aberg to Nick Shore, it looks like the writing is on the wall for Bracco.
Additionally, Bracco’s cap hit of $842,500 could increase up to the maximum $925,000 with performance bonuses. Given the fact the Leafs will be using long term injured reserve, any performance bonuses would result in an overage that is placed upon the 2020-21 cap for Toronto.
Bracco’s waivers status combined with his minimal, but still existent performance bonuses mean he’s all but certain to be heading back to Coca-Cola Coliseum for 2019-20. The Toronto Maple Leafs simply have too much depth on the right-wing and are not forced to keep him on the roster due to waivers.
Profile (via EliteProspects)
Age: 22 (Mar 17, 1997)
Height: 5-foot-9 / 175 cm
Weight: 181 lbs / 82 kg
NHL Draft: Second Round, 61st Overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs
2019-20 Season Outlook
It’s unfortunate for Jeremy Bracco coming off of a monster 79 point season in the AHL, but he will be going back down for a third season with the Marlies in 2019-20.
He will be tasked with leading the Marlies offence once again, looking to build on his even-strength game as well as his defensive capabilities.
At this point in his career, serious questions need to be asked about his value to the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the team’s depth on the right-wing, including William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Kapanen as locks in the lineup longer term, there simply isn’t much room to work with.
This begs the question, is Bracco more valuable to the Leafs in a minimal role at even strength while providing powerplay minutes, or is he more valuable as an asset in a trade?
I do think that Bracco should be given a shot with this Leafs team, especially out of the gate this season with the injury to Zach Hyman and the uncertainty surrounding Marner.
Personally, I would rather see Bracco be given a shot alongside Auston Matthews or John Tavares, just to see what they actually have in the 22-year-old winger.
Additionally, Bracco could see NHL minutes in a Sam Gagner-esque role. Back in Columbus, Gagner posted a 50 point season playing fourth-line minutes but receiving significant powerplay opportunities. If Toronto chose to use Bracco to spark their stagnant PP1 unit, or awaken the dormant PP2 unit, he could become a useful NHL piece for the team.
The way management has stockpiled depth pieces likely means this is all but a pipedream, that Bracco will be heading back down to the Marlies and this scenario only becomes a possibility in 2020-21, if he hasn’t been traded of course.
With the Marlies, Bracco will have a new two new linemates. The left-wing position on the top line was in flux for most of the 2018-19 season for the Marlies and Mueller is headed to Syracuse.
At this point, my roster projections have Dmytro Timashov and Kalle Kossila lining up with Bracco to start the year, while one of Kenny Agostino or Aberg will take the left-wing spot upon the return of Hyman and Marner.
Simply put, Jeremy Bracco doesn’t have much left to prove in the AHL. He will need to keep his head down and continue to perform if he wants to be given a shot with the Toronto Maple Leafs as an injury replacement this season, or as a regular in 2020-21.