Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s prominent unsigned prospects.
On this edition of the Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp, we reach the most exciting new addition to the lineup in Tyson Barrie.
Just as the dust was settling on July 1, Toronto and the Colorado Avalanche combined to drop a bomb on the hockey world, when Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen were sent to Denver, with Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot returning the other way.
It was a massive decision that is easily the biggest non-John Tavares move Kyle Dubas has made to this point in his tenure as Maple Leafs GM. Not only did he (finally) go out and get a premier right-handed defenceman, he also sent the longest-tenured Maple Leaf on the roster out the door.
With so much riding on this trade for the success of the 2019-20 season for the Toronto Maple Leafs, let’s jump into who Tyson Barrie is and why Leafs fans should be excited.
Season in Review
Heading into the 2018-19 season, Barrie was coming off of the best offensive season of his career. Racking up 57 points in 68 games for the Avalanche, the surface would tell you he had an incredible season.
And while 57 points as a defenceman are nothing to scoff at and provides real value, his defensive metrics were abysmal. This left a lot of uncertainty as to how effective Tyson Barrie really was, as a high scoring but net negative player for the 2017-18 season.
What Barrie was tasked with for the 2018-19 year was to prove that 2017-18 was an anomaly, that his results previous were more indicative of the player he truly is. Prior to 2017-18, Barrie’s defensive metrics had always been slightly below average, a result that you are more than willing to take when you get the offensive production you do from Barrie.
While his scoring rate dipped from 0.84 points per game to 0.76 PPG, his defensive game returned back to his previous norm, posting his best goals for percentage in four years.
Barrie was a key component of a Colorado team that started well, faltered midseason, but rebounded enough to grab the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. He finished fourth in team scoring, over 30 points better than the next highest scoring defenceman in Samuel Girard.
His impressive play didn’t end in the regular season either. Colorado knocked off the number one seed Calgary Flames in the first round, of course, and Barrie was a major piece in finishing the series. Though he went pointless in the first two games, he picked up an assist on the opening goal of Game Three and the game-tying goal of Game Four.
The final game of the series was Barrie’s most effective. He once again assisted on the opening goal and sealed the game with two powerplay assists at the end of the second period and the start of the third as the Avalanche pulled off the upset.
Barrie finished the playoffs with eight points in 12 games after the Colorado powerplay cooled off in the second round, but his impact on the Avalanche’s playoff run was mighty. If not for Colorado’s red hot powerplay in the first round, which was quarterbacked by Barrie, it’s a much closer series that certainly goes past Game Five. At five-on-five, Colorado excelled with him on the ice as well, scoring 62.5% of the goals.
The questions that surrounded Barrie were all put to rest during the 2018-19 season. Now in Toronto, new questions regarding his fit on this team and his defensive issues have arisen once again. Barrie proved them wrong in 2018-19 and signs would point towards it occurring once again in 2019-20.
Statistically Speaking
As mentioned earlier, Tyson Barrie was coming off of an abysmal defensive season in 2017-18.
"View post on imgur.com"
(Data from Natural Stat Trick)
At 42.92 percent expected goals for, Barrie was among the bottom four players in the league (min. 1000 minutes) in the statistic, sharing company with the likes of Brooks Orpik, Dion Phaneuf, and Cody Ceci.
What’s most intriguing about these results is the way Barrie has been able to outperform his expected goals for. Every season, outside of Colorado’s all-time terrible 2016-17 campaign, Barrie’s actual 5v5 goals for has been five to nine percent better than expected. This shows that his offensive output is so great that it can, and has, made up for his defensive woes in the past.
In 2018-19, though, his xGF% and actual GF% were nearly identical as there was just a 0.68% difference. It was also the highest xGF% of his career.
So the question that the Toronto Maple Leafs have gambled on is this: Can Barrie sustain his 2018-19 defensive output (slightly below average) while continuing to be among the best offensive defencemen in the league? On a team like the Leafs, where the team is built around the transition from defence to offence, rather than traditional defending in your own zone, it could be a fantastic recipe.
While Barrie may be lacking in the way we generally think of defence, he is a beast in the newer ideology regarding transition play, such as breakouts and carry-ins.
"View post on imgur.com"
As shown in this graphic from The Point (one of the most underrated follows in hockey) with data from SportLogiq, Barrie excels in areas Toronto covets. He was second among NHL defencemen in offensive zone possession, lead all defencemen in offensive zone passes, and ranked in the top 50 in completed stretch passes (which we know the Leafs love), as well as controlled exits out of the defensive zone.
Barrie’s adjustment into Mike Babcock’s system will be fascinating. The Leafs now have a right-handed blueliner that can move the puck with the best in the league, an asset they have not had in ages. In fact, Barrie’s 2018-19 offensive production would rank as the second-best in Leafs history for a right-handed defenceman, only behind Harry Cameron‘s 1.10 era adjusted points per game in *checks notes* 1921-22. You read that correctly. 1921-22. This was pre-Toronto Maple Leafs even, as Cameron did it for the St. Patricks.
A player the quality of Barrie, at his position and handedness, is something that has escaped the Toronto Maple Leafs throughout the franchise’s history. They finally have one and it will be remarkably entertaining to watch this year.
Profile (via EliteProspects)
Age: 27 (Jul 26, 1991)
Height: 5-foot-10 / 178 cm
Weight: 190 lbs / 86 kg
NHL Draft: Third Round, 64th Overall by the Colorado Avalanche
Contract (via CapFriendly)
Much has been made about Tyson Barrie’s contract situation following the Toronto Maple Leafs move to acquire him.
Barrie has just one year remaining on the four-year contract he signed back in 2016. He will be an unrestricted free agent come season’s end, meaning there’s a very real possibility Barrie is “one and done” in Toronto.
For the one year that is guaranteed, the Leafs will be getting a bargain.
In the trade that sent Barrie and Kerfoot to Toronto, the Avalanche retained half of Barrie’s salary. He carries a cap hit of just $2.75 million this season, an incredible amount of value for his contributions. For context, these are the ten defencemen with a similar cap hit ($2.5 million to $3 million) for the 2019-20 season.
"View post on imgur.com"
Points are not the best indicator of a good defenceman (looking at you Rasmus Ristolainen), but we do know that scoring defencemen cost quite a bit. At $2.75 million, Barrie is an absolute steal, even if it is for just one season.
An interesting note is that all of Barrie’s current contract came in base salary. There were no signing bonuses throughout the entirety of the four-year deal. One would have to imagine that will change in a big way come July 2020.
2019-20 Season Outlook
As soon as the trade broke, speculation into where Tyson Barrie would fit best into the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup was rampant. Top four minutes are a certainty. Who they come with is where things get very, very interesting.
Babcock could choose to run Barrie with Morgan Rielly, creating the best puck-moving pairing in the NHL, or with Jake Muzzin for a more balanced duo.
With Travis Dermott missing the start of the season, I would imagine we will see a fair amount of rotation in the pairings throughout the first month. I would anticipate both Rielly-Barrie and Muzzin-Barrie to get looks. Not only would this allow the Leafs to see what works and what doesn’t prior to the return of Dermott, but it also would allow them to have a sample, as small as it may be, for a scenario when someone goes down and adjustments need to be made.
For the course of the season, however, Muzzin and Barrie seem like a perfect match for this Leafs team. Muzzin’s defensive game meshes seamlessly with Barrie’s offensive, puck-moving style. We saw in the last week of the season and into the playoffs Nikita Zaitsev‘s game improve when paired with Muzzin. Give him an electrifying offensive weapon instead of a replacement-level defenceman and the results could be immense for this team’s ceiling.
A Muzzin-Barrie pairing would also open up easier minutes for Rielly to feast upon, either on a pairing with Ceci (likely for the first month) or with Dermott (likely after he returns to the lineup).
Coming off of a near 60 point season in Colorado, Barrie will have every opportunity to match or possibly even exceed Rielly’s 72 point mark from this past campaign ahead of a massive payday on July 1, 2020. Tyson Barrie is everything that this management team is looking for in a defenceman, so get ready for even more high flying Toronto Maple Leafs action when he’s on the ice.