The Toronto Maple Leafs sure do love depth moves lately.
Jordan Schmaltz is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Crazy, right? Who would have ever thought this day would come; the prodigal son returning home to Toronto and fulfilling his destiny.
Wait, Schmaltz isn’t from Toronto? He’s not the prodigal son? And the reason for why no one thought this day would come is that they had no idea who Schmaltz was until the Maple Leafs traded Andreas Borgman to the St. Louis Blues for him last night?
Yeah, that sounds about right.
At the moment, Schmaltz has two distinct things going for him: Handedness (he shoots right) and a pre-existing relationship with new Leafs assistant coach, Dave Hakstol.
Both give him a good starting point for his Leafs tenure and will undoubtedly be pretty important for the soon-to-be-26-year-old tweener entering an organization that has become crowded with exactly that.
If you’re looking for the low-down on Toronto’s newest rearguard, here it is.
Schmaltz joins the Leafs with 42 total games of NHL experience under his belt. He’s never scored a goal, never averaged over 14 minutes of ice time, and sits with a mere five assists. Throughout Schmaltz’s three separate NHL cameos up with the Blues – nine games in 2016-17; 13 games in 2017-18; 20 games in 2018-19 – he has never been relied upon to a meaningful extent and his overall usage is what some would deem “abhorrently sheltered” – 56.2% oZS% in 2016-17; 60.6% in 2017-18; 57.8% in 2018-19, per HockeyReference.
Given how limited of a sample size Schmaltz’s career offers us to this point, quantifying and, ultimately, judging his possession numbers is a fruitless endeavour. There just isn’t enough runway for them to be accurate.
As a result of this, Schmaltz’s metrics are scattered. He’s cracked the 50% barrier in CF/60 at 5v5 once during his three big-league seasons, while being a positive CF% rel player in two. The 50.9% CF/60 Schmaltz put up in 2017-18 is, far and away, a personal best, with his success in that regard bottoming out last season to the tune of 42.4% in a career-high 20 games.
The closest thing to a regular defence partner Schmaltz experienced during his most recent NHL audition was Jay Bouwmeester, with whom he spent 68:03 last season. According to Natural StatTrick, the pair combined for a CF/60 at 5v5 of 37.19% together. And for those who don’t fully understand the metric, those results are, uh, not good. Horrible, even.
The ability of both Schmaltz and Bouwmeester to drive play eventually improved upon being separated from each other, however – although not by much. In 100:39 of ice apart, Schmaltz improved to 46.19% while Bouwmeester jumped to 46.91%.
Therefore, when looking at the degree to which Schmaltz impacts those he plays with, an answer emerges: Not much.
So, where does this leave him? Was the trade worth it? What can the Maple Leafs expect from their newest blueliner? This answer to that last one is more or less the same as the one listed above.
Schmaltz will very likely serve the role of “spot-duty candidate” and “occasional load management fill-in” on Toronto’s blueline next year. His familiarity with Hakstol, who is set to run the Leafs’ defence corps, is sure to give him a leg-up when it comes to learning a whole new system, but for anyone to foresee Schmaltz moving the needle all that much, if at all, would be a stretch.
The fact that he needs waivers is yet another factor that is working in Schmaltz’s favour here. No longer waiver exempt, the Maple Leafs can’t send Schmaltz down to the Marlies without also welcoming the risk of losing him to another team for free, which then would ultimately mean they forfeited Borgman for nothing, too. Good asset management, that is not.
Is there a decent chance of Schmaltz going unclaimed by all 30 other organizations? Probably. He’s not exactly a top prospect (or a prospect at all) and could very likely sneak through the wire if the situation ever dictated it. But that is a gamble. And given how the Leafs’ post-training camp waiver debacle unfolded just last year, it’s one Kyle Dubas likely isn’t too keen to make.
So, Schmaltz is a good bet to start the year off as a Maple Leaf.
The team needs right-shot defenders and, lucky for him, that is an archetype Schmaltz happens to fill. Any predictions beyond that point, though, are the equivalent to shots in the dark. Schmaltz simply doesn’t have enough of a sample size to paint a picture of his effectiveness in the NHL, and even the brief glimpses he’s had thus far don’t do him many favours, either.
Temper your expectations with this new arrival. Although, do so knowing that, in hockey, anything can happen.