The Toronto Maple Leafs might have to cough up quite a bit if they choose to re-sign Frederik Andersen when his contract expires.
On July 1st, 2021, Andersen will become an unrestricted free agent. He will be due for a huge payday and it might be a challenge to keep him in Toronto.
Over the past couple of years, goaltenders have been signing huge contracts. The Montréal Canadiens re-signed Carey Price to an 8 year deal with a $10.5 million AAV. Earlier this off-season, the Florida Panthers inked Sergei Bobrovsky to a 7 year deal with a $10 million AAV. In December of 2013, the New York Rangers re-signed Henrik Lundqvist to an 8 year deal with an $8.5 million AAV.
Dependable goaltenders aren’t signing contracts to $5-6 million AAV deals anymore. The tides have turned and elite goalies are getting paid.
In addition, Andersen could possibly get paid more than Price and Bobrovsky. Anything is possible. On July 1, 2020, Washington Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby, Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray and Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will hit the market. If the salary cap continues to go up, it’s possible that Holtby, Murray or Vasilevskiy could score a new contract with a ~$12-13 million annual pay-out.
When you take a look at the seven goaltenders listed above, all of them posted similar numbers last season. Their high danger save percentage (HDSV%) varied from 78% to 83%, their medium danger save percentage (MDSV%) varied between 89% to 92% and their low danger save percentage (LDSV%) varied from 96% to 98%. If Holtby, Murray, Vasilevskiy and Andersen’s agents pay attention to HDSV/MDSV/LDSV, they would have quite a bit of ammo when it comes to contract negotiation.
With that being said, the Maple Leafs might be in a tough bind. They may have to spend somewhere between $10-12 million per season to keep the Danish goaltender in Toronto.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs choose not to renew Andersen’s contract, they could look at one of their goaltending prospects to take over in net.
Maple Leafs’ Goaltending Development
The lesson learned from the goaltender AAV increase is simply that goaltenders are a hot commodity. While you could go out and draft a plethora of goaltending prospects, there is no guarantee that any will turn into a dependable NHL starter.
Goaltender development is a challenge. Many goaltenders who get drafted don’t pan out.
Over the years, the Toronto Maple Leafs have drafted quite a few goaltenders and not many of them have panned out. Since 1995, the Maple Leafs have selected 17 goaltenders in the draft. Aside from Ian Scott, Joseph Woll and Zachary Bouthillier (who have been drafted over the past few years), 8 out of those 14 goaltenders never played in the NHL. The other 6 goaltenders never became franchise goaltenders for the Maple Leafs.
James Reimer played in Toronto for a few seasons and proved to be reliable, but he wasn’t a true starter. Reimer was more of a fringe starter. There were high hopes that Justin Pogge would become the Maple Leafs’ franchise goaltender and that didn’t pan out. The only goaltender who truly blossomed was Tuukka Rask. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, Rask was dealt to the Boston Bruins for Andrew Raycroft in 2006.
Fortunately, since Kyle Dubas joined the Toronto Maple Leafs organization, they have been drafting some pretty talented goaltending prospects. Ian Scott and Joseph Woll are both coming off of great campaigns and one could emerge as a clear candidate to take over for Andersen. There is also a good chance that neither could turn into a franchise goaltender.
If Scott and Woll both fall off of the wagon, the Maple Leafs need to ensure that they have a decent amount of cap space to retain Andersen. Otherwise, the Maple Leafs could in trouble.
stats from naturalstatrick.com, corsica-hockey and hockey-reference.com