Can Travis Dermott be the Toronto Maple Leafs New Top Pairing Defenseman?

The Toronto Maple Leafs recently acquired Tyson Barrie from the Colorado Avalanche.

While Tyson Barrie (and his 59 points) is a no-doubt top-pairing NHL defenseman, the presence of Morgain Rielly on the Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line will likely see Barrie play on the second pairing with Jake Muzzin, in what is probably going to be one of the best d-pairings in the NHL, and which is a top-pairing in it’s own right.

Morgan Rielly has established himself as one of the best defenseman in the NHL in recent seasons (and I maintain he is the rightful 2019 Norris Trophy Winner) and so , the top pairing is whatever line Rielly plays on.

But who plays with him?

I’d love to see him paired with Tyson Barrie.  I believe that the dynamics of this pairing would far outweigh the terrible defense, but I would bet any amount of money that Mike Babcock will never pair them together on purpose for an extended period of time.  I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it.

While I fear that Babcock will saddle Rielly with Cody Ceci, this is an objectively bad idea – Rielly has earned the right to finally have a good partner.  I think it’s doubtful that Timothy Liljegren or Rasmus Sandin will win a job in camp, let alone a top pairing position.

And the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t appear to have the money to bring back Jake Gardiner (whose career stats, when paired with Morgan Rielly, are extremely impressive) or sign anyone else.

That pretty much just leaves Travis Dermott.

Travis Dermott and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Travis Dermott would be a shoe-in for this position, if he wasn’t injured.  Dermott had shoulder surgery and will be out until at least November.

When he returns, he probably won’t jump to the top of the lineup.

But after a month, as the calendar turns to 20/20, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dermott take the job and run with it.

Yes, he’s a lefty, but so was Ron Hainsey.  Who cares?

So why should Travis Dermott be considered for a top pairing role?

Short Answer: He’s been quietly very good (excepting this year’s playoffs where he was bad, but injured) and at 22, stands to get even better.

Long Answer:

Dermott is a career 54% player.  That means that when he’s been on the ice, the Leafs have gotten 54% of the possession.  Yes he’s played a bottom-pairing role, and yes he is playing against “easier” competition, but there’s a couple things to note about that:

1. A player’s teammates have 5x more effect on his game than his opponents, so playing with Rielly and Tavares is going to help him more than the competition hurts him.

2. There are no easy minutes in the NHL.

Another reason to like Dermott is that his PDO was under 100 last year, but he still managed to be on the ice for more goals for than against. (allstats from naturlstattrick.com). With a little luck, the Leafs could have been truly dominant last year when Dermott was on the ice.

For both seasons in the NHL so far, Dermott has made it so the Leafs have more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances, and goals than they allow.

Basically, they usually win the part of the game when Dermott plays.

And since he’s barely scored, his impacts are almost entirely defensive.  In 101 career games, Dermott has just over 30 points.

In those games, his most common linemates have been Igor Ozhiganov and Connor Brown.  Given his deployment, it’s likely he’ll score more when he moves up the lineup, which, given his skillset, would just be a bonus.

So far, Dermott has been one of the most effective bottom-pairing defenseman in the NHL.  Everything we know about him suggests he’ll thrive if moved up the lineup.

Once he recovers from his surgery and gets his legs back, he is the perfect top pairing candidates.  You know, unless Jake Gardiner re-signs.