Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp: Frederik Andersen

Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.

We reach the fourth instalment of the Countdown to Camp series and our first heavy hitter. After two players drafted in the 2019 Draft and a depth signing, the focus has now shifted to the starting goaltender for your Toronto Maple Leafs, in Frederik Andersen.

There’s really not too much to introduce when it comes to Andersen. You know all about him.

Acquired three years ago, Andersen has posted near identical save percentages each season in Toronto. While much can be made about nearly every aspect of the Leafs roster construction, Andersen’s position and importance to the team are unanimous.

Even with John Tavares‘ 47 goal season, even with Mitch Marner‘s breakout 94 point season, even with Auston Matthews‘ second straight point per game campaign, it’s Andersen who is consistently the choice for Team MVP.

Let’s dive into his 2018-19 season and look at why this is the case.

Season in Review

After two consecutive slow starts to his seasons, Toronto Maple Leafs fans expected another poor October from Andersen. Instead, we saw him post a .919 save percentage and take off from there.

With a 6-4-0 record in the opening month of the campaign, Andersen put his name squarely in the Vezina conversation with an incredible November. He followed up his .919 October with an incredible .942 November, easily the best start to a season he has had a Leaf.

In 2017-18, Andersen finished November as the second star of the month with a .938 SV%. Though he didn’t receive the honour this time around, his record of 8-3-0 in the second month of the season meant his reputation of being a slow starter is gone by the wayside.

Following that incredible month came a down December and an injury. Following nine starts and a disappointing .903 SV% in those games, Andersen missed a start on December 28. Most expected him to appear the next night against the New York Islanders on Hockey Night in Canada, but when Sparks started the second night as well, injury concern immediately shot through Leafs Nation.

Out with a groin injury (and a case of the flu), Andersen didn’t return to the lineup until January 14.

Upon his return, he rebounded strongly. In minimal action in January, he posted a .919 SV%, followed by a .922 SV% in February. Things were trending upwards for Andersen and a potential Vezina Trophy nomination, or even win, was legitimately in his sights.

A rough patch in March all but destroyed those hopes. A brutal 11 game stretch where Andersen stopped just 89% of the shots he faced cratered his save percentage and the Vezina hype he was receiving.

Though he finished the year strong with a .925 SV% across his final three starts, the damage was done in March. He received just one third-place vote for the Vezina, down from 12 total points and a fourth-place overall finish in 2017-18.

Come the postseason, Andersen was stellar. Though he finished with a losing record, Andersen was among the top netminders in the first round, finishing with a .922 SV%. He faced a lot of criticism in the 2017-18 first round defeat, where he posted a .896 SV%. The same could not be said for 2018-19, yet Toronto was still sent packing in April.

Fantastic performances in Games One, Three, Five, and Six were not enough to get the Toronto Maple Leafs through to the second round. He got shelled in Game Four, allowing five goals on 30 shots, but more than made up for it the rest of the series. Even in Game Seven, where his .900 SV% leaves a lot to be asked for, the rest of the team didn’t show up to make it even remotely a worthy talking point.

Statistically Speaking

Getting back to the regular season, Frederik Andersen was dominant in the first half of the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. A .923 SV% in his first 30 starts, to go with a 20-9-1, were huge in the Leafs keeping pace with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins through the first 41 games of the season.

His first half was not that unlike 2017-18, however. He played slightly more a season ago (33 games vs. 30 games) and had a slightly lower save percentage (.921 SV% vs. .923 SV%).

Once again, the major difference came in how his season ended. With an injury and a dismal March, Andersen’s second-half numbers come in leaving a lot to be missed. A 16-7-6 record is respectable, but his .911 SV% left a lot on the table compared to his first-half numbers and was a reason for the falloff in point accumulation as the season went along for Toronto. In 2017-18, Andersen also saw a drop in performance in the second half, down to a .914 SV% the year previous.

It would appear that fatigue has played into Andersen’s performance as the season goes on, which will undoubtedly bring load management back into the conversation.

Looking at some more advanced numbers drives home how good his 2018-19 was on the whole. Though he faced the largest workload in the league yet again, Andersen was stopped a higher percentage of shots than expected. While his expected save percentage at even strength was down at .923, his actual save percentage at even strength was a much better .929.

In terms of goals saved above average, Andersen excelled again, according to Natural Stat Trick. His 15.86 GSAA was good for fifth in the league, only Ben Bishop, Matt Murray, and the Islanders duo of Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner. Among starters on a per 60 basis, Andersen remains fifth, behind Jordan Binnington, Bishop, Murray, Lehner.

One thing that is interesting to note is how Andersen’s save percentage breaks down. He had a subpar high danger save percentage at just .817, 36th among goaltenders with 1000 minutes played. Andersen’s medium danger save percentage improves vastly, up to 16th league-wide with a .924, but where he really makes up for his lack of HDSV% is in low danger stops. Andersen allowed only 1.6% of the low danger opportunities past him, ranking among the likes of John Gibson and Carey Price.

It’s important to note that multiple other notable goaltenders struggled in terms of HDSV%. Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Devan Dubnyk all ranked lower in the statistic than Andersen.

Still, Andersen’s metrics pose a fascinating look into how his season went, where he excelled, and where there is room for improvement.

Profile

Age: 29 (Oct 2, 1989)

Height: 6-foot-4 / 192 cm

Weight: 229 lbs / 104 kg

NHL Draft: Third Round, 87th Overall by the Anaheim Ducks (Re-Drafted)

Contract

It feels like just yesterday Frederik Andersen was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs. We are already three seasons into his reign of the Leafs net, which means that there are only two years left on his current contract.

While much has been talked about the lack of security on the Toronto blueline, with Morgan Rielly being the only regular signed past the 2019-20 season, a massive decision is quickly approaching in the Leafs net.

Andersen will be 30 during the course of the season and would need to re-signed heading into his age-32 season. With Joseph Woll and Ian Scott turning pro this year, another heated debate regarding the net in Toronto could be rapidly drawing closer.

For now, though, Andersen will be playing in the fourth year of the five year contract he signed back in 2016. Unlike most contracts Toronto has given out recently, Andersen’s total salary comes in at $5 million, matching his cap hit. He received a $3 million signing bonus on July 1, with the rest of the money coming in base salary over the course of the year.

Andersen also has a 10 team modified no-trade clause, which barring something drastically unforeseen, will have no impact this year or next.

2019-20 Season Outlook

This upcoming season, nothing changes regarding Frederik Andersen’s role with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

He will be the team’s number one goaltender. He will be relied on to perform consistently throughout the season and into the playoffs. He will still be the most important player to the team’s success.

It’s a lot to put on one player’s shoulders, but with the lack of depth the Leafs have in goal, Toronto needs a healthy, well-performing Andersen. To this point in his Leafs career, Andersen has posted two .918 seasons and a .917 last year. He’s been consistent to this point, he cannot afford to take a step back.

Entering his 30’s, load management will be a serious topic once again this year. Though he took a step back in games played, Andersen still faced the most shots in the league. Look across the hall and you see a trophy that came from load management. Look at the Stanley Cup champions and you see a goaltender who played just 74 games over the entire season, regular season and playoffs combined. Look at the Vezina nominees and you see three netminders who played slightly above half of their team’s games, with the most at 53.

Simply put, the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t need Frederik Andersen for 60-plus games of the regular season. They need him for 20-plus games after Game 82 is played. Whether the coaching staff agrees and has enough faith in the backup to rest Andersen more, will remain to be seen until this time next year.