Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp: Kenny Agostino

Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.

The Toronto Maple Leafs made few waves in actual free agency on July 1st. Of course, the major news came from the acquisition of Tyson Barrie and departures of Nazem Kadri and Nikita Zaitsev, but the Leafs made multiple signings on the opening day of free agency.

While the few headlines that went towards Toronto’s UFA additions went to the signing of Jason Spezza, the not-yet-official-but-official signing of Kenny Agostino is one that fascinates me.

A former hot prospect once traded for Jarome Iginla, Agostino’s career has become that of a journeyman “AAAA” player. With stints in St. Louis, Chicago (AHL), Boston, Providence, Laval, Montreal, and New Jersey since his departure from the Calgary Flames organization, Agostino’s professional career has been anything but stable.

After his first true season in the NHL, Agostino will be looking to carry the success of 2018-19 into his tenure in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization and make the team out of camp.

Season in Review

Kenny Agostino found himself in an all too familiar position on July 1st, 2018.

After another season in the AHL, this time with the Providence Bruins, Agostino was being offered two-way contracts to become a new team’s AHL leading scorer.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Heading into the 2016-17 season, Agostino was fresh off of an 83 point season in the AHL, leading the league in scoring, and was looking to springboard that performance into a full-time NHL gig with the Boston Bruins. Instead, he played just five games for the big club and failed to reproduce his AHL MVP campaign when down with Providence.

This meant settling for a one year, two-way contract with the Montreal Canadiens to be a leader for the Laval Rocket. That’s what Agostino was expecting for the 2018-19 year, but as we all know, hockey rarely goes as expected.

12 games and ten points into his season in Laval, he was recalled by the Habs after injuries to Joel Armia and Paul Byron on November 7. Suddenly, Agostino was thrust into the NHL. With just 22 career games under his belt, he was given his first true chance to stick in the big league.

Transitioning into a fourth line grinder for Montreal, Agostino managed to stick for 36 games due to Montreal’s rotating number of injured players creating roster space. In that time, Agostino showed he could handle the NHL level. He posted 11 points in his first 24 games. Then came a 12-game pointless streak.

The combination of the Canadiens getting healthier and Agostino’s drop off in production resulted in a waiver placement on February 10. All signs pointed towards a return to the AHL, where he would go back to performing in his expected role in the preseason.

Then the New Jersey Devils stepped in, claiming the Morristown native the next day.

Playing for his hometown team, Agostino immediately found the scoresheet in his first game for the Devils. His scoring continued to the end of the season, and at a higher rate in New Jersey, finishing with 13 points in 27 games.

Agostino nearly tripled his NHL experience in 2018-19 after being expected to be Laval’s go-to man. His season just goes to show you never know what’s going to happen in hockey.

Statistically Speaking

Kenny Agostino’s breakthrough into the NHL is a nice story, but what value could he actually bring to the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Agostino has been known as an elite scorer at the AHL level, but it’s actually his defensive metrics that stand out at first glance at the NHL level.

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Looking at Agostino’s RAPM chart, via Evolving-Hockey.com , he appears to be a well rounded even strength player with more of an emphasis on defence. While this is true in the role he played, it’s important to note Agostino’s usage before writing rave reviews of the player.

Of his 717:18 at even strength, just 177:59 was spent against “elite” competition, according to PuckIQ. In Montreal, just 21.5% of his even strength ice time came against “elite” competition, with that number reaching 28% in New Jersey. Compare this to teammates Byron (30.6%) and Pavel Zacha (30.9%), and it’s evident that Agostino was rarely against top players, as you would expect for a fourth liner.

He was also the benefactor of a heavy dose of offensive zone starts. In Montreal, Agostino was heavily sheltered. 67.42% of his starts came in the offensive zone, with that mark dropping to a much more reasonable 53.15% in New Jersey. This difference in usage is evident in Agostino’s Corsi-For, where he posted a 56.70 percent CF% in Montreal, versus a 48.86 percent CF% in New Jersey.

Now, all is not bad for Agostino here. As shown in the RAPM chart, Agostino’s defensive value is no lie. In New Jersey, his 53.25 Corsi Against per 60 was second best among players with 300 minutes on the team, just behind Taylor Hall. In Montreal, it was all the way down at 48.68 CA/60, the best on the team.

Where the main critique lies is his offensive generation at the NHL level. In the heavily sheltered role in Montreal, Agostino’s Corsi For per 60 was a middle of the pack 63.74, 12th on the team. In New Jersey, without the benefit of 67.42% of his starts coming in the offensive zone, that total fell to 50.89 CF/60, 16th on the New Jersey Devils.

It’s very interesting to me that we have these two data sets from the same season. We know what to expect from Kenny Agostino if he were to be played on a fourth line that received heavy sheltering. We also know what to expect if the fourth line receives more balanced minutes.

This could be key for the Toronto Maple Leafs. With Spezza and Nick Shore added to the roster, Toronto could easily have two fourth lines they rotate. One, a more sheltered unit with Spezza looking to dominate weaker competition, and the other a more defensively sound group, with Shore providing penalty killing value.

Profile

Age: 27 (Apr 30, 1992)

Height: 6-foot / 183 cm

Weight: 198 lbs / 90 kg

NHL Draft: Fifth Round, 140th Overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins

Contract

Though technically not official quite yet, Agostino is expected to have signed a two year, one-way contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs worth $700,000 per year.

After four consecutive one year contracts, Agostino has finally found some stability past the timeline of 365 days.

In 2015, he was extended by Calgary, only to be left unqualified come season’s end. He signed with the St. Louis Blues, where he put up a monster season in the AHL and earned a one-way contract with the Bruins the following year. He failed to replicate the 83 point performance and be left to free agency once again.

The Montreal Canadiens picked him up on July 1, 2018, on a two-way contract, and you know how the rest played out already.

Receiving not only a one-way deal but also a second year as well is massive for the 27-year old Agostino. He will finally be able to get settled in an organization and not have to worry about what’s to come in July. Regardless as to whether he sticks with the Toronto Maple Leafs or ends up in the AHL with the Marlies, Agostino can bank on the stability past one season.

2019-20 Season Outlook

Training camp and the ensuing preseason will be a massive factor for where Kenny Agostino ends up for the 2019-20 season. The cluster of depth wingers the Toronto Maple Leafs have could be decisive for where he plays next year.

Trevor Moore, Ilya Mikheyev, Nic Petan, Jeremy Bracco, Mason Marchment, and Dmytro Timashov will all be pushing for the same roster spots in camp.

More from Editor In Leaf

There are two ways to analyze the signing of Agostino. One, he was signed to a two year, one-way deal to help get him through waivers and to the Marlies where he can be the extra offensive juggernaut that they missed following the midseason departure of Sam Gagner.

The second is that Agostino was a relatively balanced winger in his first NHL season, with more value coming from the defensive side of things.

Personally, I see Agostino sticking through the first month of the season. At that point, we will see how Mike Babcock deploys his depth options, what’s working, and what isn’t. The return of Hyman to the lineup would be anticipated a short time following this point of the season as well.

We could see a number of possibilities in the first month with the first line left winger missing, but I would imagine we see a line consisting of Agostino, Jason Spezza, and Nick Shore for a stretch of the opening games of the year. Spezza brings powerplay minutes, Shore brings penalty killing minutes, and Agostino is a balance at even strength.

It’s a tough read for Kenny Agostino at this point. His signing isn’t even official quite yet, so we have yet to hear what Kyle Dubas, Babcock, or Laurence Gilman have to say on the matter. For now, though, Toronto is a good gamble from Agostino’s perspective. It’s a club that is not afraid to roll four lines of skill and he plays a position where the team is especially weak, in the left wing.

dark. Next. Countdown to Camp: Nick Abruzzese

Kenny Agostino is looking to build off of his first NHL season and become a legitimate depth piece. After a tumultuous start to his career, Agostino will be a good story to follow in camp and, hopefully, into the NHL season.

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