Toronto Maple Leafs: The Dominos are Falling Fast

Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs are making money moves, and signs indicate that there is still more to come.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had an active couple of weeks. The entire ordeal began with trading Patrick Marleau and a first-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes in order to shed Marleau’s $6.5M cap hit. The team then subsequently signed Kasperi Kapanen for 3 years at $3.2M per season and Andreas Johnsson for 4 years at $3.4M per season.

On Monday, the Leafs went a step further with a blockbuster trade that sent Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen, and a third-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche for Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot, and a sixth-round pick.

The Leafs also formalized their previously arranged trade with the Ottawa Senators, sending Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown, and Michael Carcone in exchange for Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk and a third-round pick.

Factor in the signings of Jason Spezza, Kevin Gravel, Nick Shore, and Kenny Agostini and the Leafs underwent a 40% roster turnover of their skaters in just a single day.

So where do the Leafs sit now? Are their salary cap concerns solved? Have they conquered their defensive demons? Not quite, but they are in a significantly better position than they were two weeks ago.

Salary Cap Outlook

The hidden jewel of all of this activity is that the Leafs were able to pull off a trade to bring Tyson Barrie to Toronto at a reduced cap hit of only $2.75M for 2019-20.

The managerial wizardry that Kyle Dubas displayed in that move cannot be overstated. On the open market, signing a defenseman of Barrie’s calibre would likely cost around $8M on a long-term commitment.

However, the Leafs did gain some cap question marks, as Cody Ceci and Alexander Kerfoot are restricted free agents without a contract for the 2019-20 season.

According to CapFriendly.com, the Leafs currently have $11M in cap space for the 2019-20 season. After placing Nathan Horton on long-term injury reserve and shipping the temporary roster holders for Kerfoot, Ceci and Marner to the AHL, the Leafs should have around $18.5M in cap space.

This money will almost certainly be allocated to Ceci, Kerfoot and Marner. Assuming that Ceci’s reported verbal contract agreement for $4.5M/season is formalized, and Kerfoot receives something in the range of Kapanen’s $3.2M and Johnsson’s $3.4M, the Leafs should have more than $10.5M in cap room to sign Marner.

The Leafs have evidently made big moves to make the numbers work around Marner. With breathing space underneath the cap and informed consideration of his demands, it should come as no surprise if the team comes to an agreement with Marner very soon.

Defensive Outlook

Shifting to the defensive end, the Leafs now have five defensemen capable of playing 20 minutes or more on a nightly basis.

Barrie and Ceci join Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Travis Dermott to form a strong defensive core, while the 6th and 7th defensive roles could go to a committee of potential candidates.

With the team’s defensive group and salary cap rounding into shape, the picture surrounding the 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs is gaining clarity. Interestingly, Morgan Rielly is the only Leafs defenseman signed past the 2019-20 season, which could make for an equally eventful overhaul at this time next year.

Despite all of the excitement among Leafs nation, a truly successful offseason for the Leafs has to include the re-signing of Mitch Marner.

While there is optimism that the team can avoid a contract debacle like William Nylander’s only a season ago, Marner’s contract situation will continue to loom until he officially signs.

One thing is for sure: The dominos are falling, and they are falling fast.