Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp: Nick Abruzzese

Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.

Part One of Countdown to Camp covered one of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fourth-round selections in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft and Part Two is hitting on the second.

Nick Abruzzese was drafted 124th overall by the Leafs on June 22, completing the trade that sent Nikita Soshnikov to the St. Louis Blues. Unlike Toronto’s first three selections Nick Robertson, Mikko Kokkonen, and Mikhail Abramov, who were either projected to go earlier than where they were drafted, Abruzzese’s selection came out of left field.

Abruzzese entered the draft as a double overager, a June 1999 birthdate who was eligible to be selected in the entry draft the previous two years. This is what made the Abruzzese pick so unexpected. Even though he led the USHL in scoring, his age and size combined to make him a forgotten prospect heading into this draft. Despite this, the Toronto Maple Leafs still felt highly enough of him to take him 124th overall.

Season in Review

Coming off of a 0.65 points-per-game rookie season in the USHL, Nick Abruzzese was expected to take another step for the Chicago Steel in the 2018-19 season.

The Steel were losing leading scorers Jack Dugan, Blake McLaughlin, and Baker Shore to the NCAA, as well as Aaro Vidgren back to Finland. Winger Robert Mastrosimone was the leading returnee, leaving the first line centre role up for grabs.

As an undrafted double overager in the USHL, Abruzzese would have to have a stellar season to receive attention for the NHL Entry Draft. And oh boy, did he ever. His six points in four preseason games only started what would become a breakout campaign for the Slate Hill, New York native.

Originally a commit to the University of Vermont, Abruzzese switched his commitment in December to the Harvard Crimson. It was clear by this point of the season that he was garnering attention from scouts from the collegiate side to the NHL, as evidenced by his collegiate switch to a higher profile program.

Playing alongside a top prospect in Mastrosimone, Abruzzese dominated offensively over the course of the entire season. His 80 points in 63 games were good enough to lead the league in scoring, a mark 20 points better than Mastrosimone, who was second in scoring on the Steel.

Come season’s end, Chicago finished second in the Eastern Conference, eight points back of the Muskegon Lumberjacks. With a first-round bye, Abruzzese and the Steel defeated Cedar Rapids in four games in the Conference Semi-Finals. Matching up against Muskegon in the Conference Finals, Chicago pulled off the upset and beat the Lumberjacks in four to move onto the Clark Cup finals. The championship dream would end swiftly for Abruzzese and the Chicago Steel, however, falling in a sweep to the Sioux Falls Stampede in three games.

Chicago was lead to the finals by their first line of Mastrosimone, Abruzzese, and Toronto Maple Leafs rookie camp sensation, Gunnarwolfe Fontaine. The trio finished one-two-three in playoff scoring with 15, 14, and 12 points respectively.

Though his season ended in championship heartbreak, Nick Abruzzese was named as one of the three forwards on the All-USHL First Team, but more importantly, put his name square on the NHL radar.

Statistically Speaking

Because Abruzzese played in the USHL as a 19-year-old, it’s tough to gauge where he is in his development. Simply put, the USHL is poor competition for a double overage prospect.

The NHLe conversion rate provided by MannyElk put the USHL at 61% of the QMJHL, 52.4% of the WHL, and 51.5% of the OHL. If we are wary of overage production in the CHL, we should be even more apprehensive about overage USHL production.

Even with Abruzzese leading the league in scoring, his NHLe score only comes in at a measly 8.60. This ranks behind fellow fourth-round pick Mikhail Abramov (9.52), who is two years younger, and ahead of 2018 seventh round pick Semyon Kizimov (8.18) on the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect list.

So why should you be intrigued by Nick Abruzzese?

For starters, he’s not big. Now, that’s usually a knock on a player, but dominating as an overage player usually comes with the asterisk of being an adult playing against children. Though an adult, Abrusseze and his 5-foot-9, 160-pound frame do not have the size advantage most overage players have over their peers in a league such as the USHL.

It’s something that Toronto Maple Leafs director of amateur scouting John Lilley pointed out on draft day, saying “He’s underdeveloped for a ’99. When you look at him, you’d think he’s a ’01. He’s an older kid, but he still has room to grow and mature physically.”

The Leafs have not shied away from drafting overage players in recent drafts, but the most interesting comparison to me is Adam Brooks.

Brooks was drafted as a double overager as well, though out of the tougher WHL rather than the USHL. He had dominated with the Regina Pats, but many questioned how he would translate to the next level based on his less than stellar WHL career to that point. Although he had a low scoring rookie season in the AHL, Brooks broke out for 40 points in 61 games in his sophomore campaign with the Marlies given an increased role and at 23, he has a legitimate shot at being an NHLer.

The key here is the size comparison. Unlike a Brett Leason or a Justin Brazeau who can lean on their size to dominate younger, smaller opponents, Abruzzese (5-foot-9) and Brooks (5-foot-10) were forced to develop in their leagues without being able to rely on physical tools.

While size is key in understanding why the pick may have upside, it’s important to note that Abruzzese’s advanced metrics are not all that impressive.

Abruzzese, on average, was involved in 32.92% of his team’s scoring, via Scouching. This is a high total, ranking sixth among draft-eligible, full-time USHLers, but was nowhere near as impressive as the likes of first-year eligibles Bobby Brink (52.43%) and Shane Pinto (43.26%), as well as overager Bryce Brodzinski (37.65%).

When looking at Cat%, it paints a worse picture for Abruzzese. His Off. Cat% of 61.10% (meaning when on the ice, Chicago scored at a 61.10% higher rate than the team average) ranked 17th among draft-eligible USHLers, below fellow double overagers Ronnie Attard and Matt Brown. Defensively, Abruzzese’s Def. Cat% of 61.46% (meaning when on the ice, Chicago allowed 61.46% more against than the team average) effectively made him a neutral value player on the ice.

Statistically, the Nick Abruzzese pick is confusing. He’s old for the draft, played in a weak league, and his advanced metrics don’t help to build an overly convincing case for him. It’s clear this pick is based more on the “eye test”, where Leafs scouts see a player that has the tools to develop into an NHL forward.

Profile

Age: 20 (Jun 4, 1999)

Height: 5-foot-9 / 175 cm

Weight: 161 lbs / 73 kg

NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 124th Overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs

2019-20 Season Outlook

Nick Abruzzese will be facing a step up in competition for the 2019-20 season when he takes the ice for the Harvard Crimson of the ECAC.

The collegiate level will be the first true evaluator of Abruzzese’s skill level. He played his draft year in AAA when most are in the USHL, his Draft+1 season in the USHL when most are in the NCAA, and his Draft+2 season in the USHL when nearly all NHL prospects are in the NCAA.

Of all the conferences to go to, the ECAC will be the best for his transition to the next level. The ECAC is the highest scoring major NCAA conference. This past season, the two highest scoring players in the NCAA on a per game basis, Adam Fox and Ryan Kuffner, both came from the ECAC.

This should help Abruzzese’s transition, as should heading to a program the quality of Harvard.

Though the Crimson are losing Fox to the NHL, Harvard still boasts Casey Dornbach, Jack Drury, and Jack Badini up front, as well as Reilly Walsh and Jack Rathbone on the blueline. They will be adding NHL draft picks Henry Thrun and John Farinacci as well. Colton Kerfoot, brother of recent Leafs acquisition Alexander Kerfoot, also plays for the Crimson.

Though he played centre for Chicago, Abruzzese will be expected to start on the wing for Harvard, where he will have plenty of opportunities to step into an offensive role as an older freshman. At 20 years of age, he will need an impressive freshman campaign to prove his fourth-round value.