Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp: Mikhail Abramov

Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.

For the 2019 offseason, we kick off the Countdown to Camp with a player added to the Toronto Maple Leafs organization a little over a week ago.

Mikhail Abramov was selected 115th overall by the Leafs in the fourth round back on June 22. A center who projects longer term as a right winger, he played for the Victoriaville Tigres of the QMJHL in 2018-19.

Abramov came to North America after playing in CSKA Moscow’s youth system, where he excelled at each of the U16, U17, and U18 levels. Coming to the QMJHL, he was drafted 97th in the CHL Import Draft by Victoriaville. He had minimal draft hype as he did not appear in the MHL, Russia’s equivalent of the CHL.

Season in Review

With little fanfare coming into the 2018-19 season, Abramov put his name on the map at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. With seven points in five games on the bronze medal Russian team, Abramov put his name into the back of scouts minds heading into the season.

He continued his hot start to the year in the QMJHL preseason as well. He posted the same stat line (seven points in five games) and immediately showed he was a top offensive talent for a Victoriaville team that was in desperate need of exactly that.

Though the scoring rate didn’t continue into the regular season, Abramov’s fantastic Hlinka Gretzky and QMJHL preseason showed what he is capable of right at the beginning of the year, a key factor for a Russian coming to North America for the first time in his draft year.

Abramov’s final tally of 16 goals and 54 points in 62 games was sneakily impressive. On a Victoriaville team devoid of offensive talent down the lineup, 54 points were good for third in team scoring, behind fellow Russian rookie Yegor Serdyuk and overager Simon Lafrance.

Outside of the Serdyuk, Lafrance, and Abramov trio, the next highest scoring forward was Conor Frenette, with 27. Abramov had double the amount of points that the fourth highest scoring forward had.

Needless to say, Victoriaville was a bad offensive team. Though the trio accounted for a vast majority of the teams scoring, Lafrance rarely lined up with Abramov and Serdyuk through the season. Abramov and Serdyuk were often paired together, while Lafrance was moved around the lineup to try and spark more offence throughout the roster.

The Tigres still managed to finish 12th overall in the QMJHL, matching up with the Val d’Or Foreurs in the first round. The four seed, Victoriaville and Abramov started hot, winning the first two games. Abramov scored four assists in Game One and Two but suffered an injury in the second game of the series that would keep him out until Game Six.

Victoriaville lost each game without Abramov, including a 2-1 loss in Game Five. With him back in the lineup for Game Six, the Tigres won 6-2 and finished Val d’Or off in overtime in Game Seven. Abramov’s six assists in four games were a massive component to Victoriaville’s success, but a second-round matchup against Rouyn-Noranda was all but done before it even started.

The best team in the QMJHL destroyed the Tigres, sweeping them in four games. Victoriaville’s offensive trio was stifled by the likes of Noah Dobson and Justin Bergeron. The Tigres scored just three goals in the series, with Abramov picking up one of the three. The Huskies outscored Victoriaville 21-3 in the four games, ending Abramov’s season.

A final stat line of 54 points in 62 games in the regular season to go with seven points in eight playoff games completed a very solid rookie season for Mikhail Abramov.

Statistically Speaking

Abramov’s statical outlook, on the surface, is relatively weak. His 54 points in 62 games leave some to be desired in the high scoring QMJHL. His NHLe score of 9.52, based on MannyElk’s conversions, ranks 10th among Toronto Maple Leafs prospects not playing in the direct system (NHL/AHL/ECHL).

That number is on the low side for Abramov’s talent level, shown by his advanced metrics. His involvement percentage was up at 31.50%, a high mark for draft-eligible QMJHL forwards. Of the 76 tracked by Scouching for the 2019 Draft, Abramov was fifth. The only first-year eligible players ahead of him were his teammate Yegor Serdyuk and Moncton Wildcat Jakob Pelletier.

In terms of Cat%, Abramov ranked very highly as well. Cat% calculates a player’s impact on even-strength goals compared to the average, which can be broken down into goals for, against, or total.

Abramov’s Off. Cat% of 91.61% was very good. This means Abramov scored at a 91.61% higher rate at even strength than his team’s output when off the ice, nearly doubling the output versus the team average. This percentage was among the highest in the QMJHL for first-year eligible players, behind only Rimouski’s Maxim Cajkovic, Moncton’s Jakob Pelletier, and Charlottetown’s Nikita Alexandrov.

Of these players listed, Serdyuk was the only one to be selected later than Abramov. Pelletier went 26th to the Calgary Flames, Alexandrov went 62nd to the St. Louis Blues, and Cajkovic went 89th to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Of course, Abramov went 115th to the Toronto Maple Leafs, while Yegor Serdyuk was drafted 165th by the Philadelphia Flyers.

Profile

Age: 18 (Mar 26, 2001)

Height: 5-foot-11 / 180 cm

Weight: 154 lbs / 70 kg

NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 115th Overall in 2019 by the Toronto Maple Leafs

2019-20 Season Outlook

Mikhail Abramov will be heading back to the QMJHL and the Victoriaville Tigres for another season in 2019-20.

With Simon Lafrance heading to the University of Quebec-Trois-Rivieres, Abramov will be expected to take another step in terms of offensive production. The duo of Abramov and Serdyuk were already vital to the Tigres success in 2018-19. As sophomores, their importance only increases.

Victoriaville will be getting some help, though. Ukrainian Alexander Peresunko has committed to the Tigres after a productive season in the NCDC with the Boston Jr. Bruins. As a 19-year-old, Peresunko is a wild card coming from a lower level league. If he can produce at the QMJHL level, he will be a massive help to Abramov in providing another talented winger to potentially play with.

Incoming first-round pick Maxime Pellerin will also provide offensive depth, while Frenette and midseason addition Olivier Mathieu will look to progress.

Overall, 2019-20 will be an important one in Mikhail Abramov’s development. In his first season as a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect, Abramov will need to show that his underlying numbers are in fact showing of further scoring talent in the QMJHL.

Abramov could also have a shot at the Russian World Junior squad after his performance at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in 2018.

As a fourth-round swing, Abramov’s talent combined with his advanced metrics makes him a very intriguing player, one that Leafs fans should be keeping an eye on during the 2019-20 season.