Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line Is Infinitely Better Than You Think

The Toronto Maple Leafs still have some salary issues.

After trading Patrick Marleau this past weekend, the Toronto Maple Leafs still have some problems with the salary cap.

If they could unload Nikita Zaitsev, and his $5 million dollar cap-hit, they’d be a lot better off.

The problem – so we’ve been repeatedly told – is that the Leafs are so thin on the blue-line, and so lacking in right-handed defenders, that they can’t afford to just give Zaitsev away.

In my opinion, this is just posturing by the club in an attempt to get a better deal.  I fully believe that if they are out-waited, they’ll just give him away.

The Evidence?

First of all, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t anywhere near as thin on the blue-line as people would have you think.

Morgan Rielly is an elite #1 defenseman. A franchise cornerstone and one of the five or ten best in the entire world at his position.

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(Charts from evolving-hockey.com, used with permission).

Jake Muzzin isn’t far behind.  For close to the last decade, he’s been among the best play driving back-ends in the world.  When he got away from Zaitsev last year, he was a 57% player.

Travis Dermott is well on his way to being a top pairing defenseman.   If you were to add in Jake Gardiner, you’d have one of the best top-fours in hockey.  Maybe the best.

Secondly, the Leafs have incredible minor league depth.  Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin are both going to be good to great NHLers.  Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman could play on any team in the league.

Justin Holl and Jespers Lindgren are a lot better than most teams fifth or sixth minor league options.

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As for the right-handed thing, the media cares, but the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t.  They played Ron Hainsey on the left side.  They have inquired about Slavin and Nurse.  Left handers all.

Last year they could have landed Gudas or Jenson (righties) but they traded for Muzzin instead.

They might act like Zaitsev being a righty matters, but it’s just to get the best asset back possible.  If they have to, I have no doubt they’ll dress six lefties.  Babcock won’t like it, but I’m not sure they care too much what Babcock likes anymore – his playoff performance makes him lucky to just have a job.

The Toronto Maple Leafs should make re-signing Jake Gardiner a priority.  If he’s too costly, then they should try to find a cheap option with upside.  I’m not against pulling off a huge blockbuster, but I just don’t think it’s necessary.

Rosen, Borgman, Liljegren and Sandin all have upside.  Considering the range of effectiveness of bottom-of-the-lineup players (about 10% of NHL players actually have large effects on the game) there really is no risk in playing them, if necessary.

Warm bodies on the third pairing is all you really need.  If they have upside, so much the better.

But look at Gardiner’s chart! You can’t replicate that in a trade (since to get anyone even close is going to take something away from the team) so clearly signing him is the best option.

A defense with Rielly-Muzzin-Dermott-Rosen-Sandin-Liljegren is perfectly fine.

Add in Gardiner and it’s bordering on great.

So, in reality, there’s no need to worry about Zaitsev or Hainsey. They can be replaced by one of a half dozen guys with no loss of quality.

The Toronto Maple Leafs defense is way better than you think it is.