Toronto Maple Leafs: Assessing Viable Landing Spots for Patrick Marleau
Where in the world are the Toronto Maple Leafs going to send Patrick Marleau?
It’s the question all Toronto Maple Leafs fans are asking themselves, after “how much is Mitch Marner going to sign for?” and ” who is going to offer sheet all of our RFAs?”
Joking aside, the recent developments in a Patrick Marleau trade have come swiftly and unexpectedly. The fanbase went from anticipating a $6.25 million boat anchor on the fourth line, to making mock trades by the dozen in one five minute segment on a Saturday night.
The news that Marleau had moved back to San Jose and was willing to waive his no-trade clause to move closer to home was stunning. Nobody thought that Marleau would be willing to move on from the team he signed with in order to win a Stanley Cup.
Yet after two seasons, it seems both parties are fully prepared to move on. Marleau wants to go back home and the Toronto Maple Leafs are in need of cap space.
That should make a trade simple enough, right?
Marleau’s cap hit, want of moving closer to San Jose, and split signing bonus between July 1 and sometime in December severely limits general manager Kyle Dubas’ options. A team that has plenty of cap space and wants a veteran, such as the Ottawa Senators, are not a trading partner due to Marleau’s needs in a deal.
Of course, there are NHL teams relatively close to San Jose. Outside of the Sharks, six teams are within 1500km of San Jose.
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Some are intriguing fits, others are far from possibilities. The Vegas Golden Knights have their own cap issues and are looking to move David Clarkson. If there were any team in the NHL that was least likely to trade for Patrick Marleau, it would be the team already $5 million away from the ceiling. Then there’s a team like Vancouver who has the cap space but has never been involved in a cap dump trade under the current regime, and it doesn’t look like it’s changing anytime soon.
While Vegas and Vancouver are not likely trading partners, it does show that Dubas is not limited to one team to make a Marleau trade. He does have options, though limited, and his hands will not be tied.
Patrick Marleau’s exit from Toronto will be fascinating. Until we see the Leafs PR tweet, we won’t know for sure how it’s going down, but for now, here’s an evaluation of five potential trade candidates.
Colorado
Last year, Joe Sakic acquired a starting goaltender by taking on Brooks Orpik‘s contract. This year, Sakic is once again sniffing around a cap-strapped team looking to create space.
Colorado is a rare combination of a contending team with plenty of room to work with. The Avalanche enter the offseason with over $35 million to work with, though they will have to use a fair portion to sign RFAs Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Compher, and Alexander Kerfoot.
Despite making the second round, the Avalanche have a clear weakness up front. A lack of depth beyond Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Rantanen limit this team’s ceiling. Just as Sakic did a year ago in addressing a lack of goaltending past the 2018-19 season when he traded for Philipp Grubauer, Sakic could be looking towards the Toronto Maple Leafs to address some of his scoring woes.
The Avalanche have no need for another prospect at this time. Taking on Patrick Marleau’s cap hit to acquire a draft pick or a prospect is of no help to a team looking to build off of a second round appearance.
Instead, Colorado will almost certainly look to pry NHL talent from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Sakic would be remiss if he didn’t pressure Kyle Dubas with the threat of an offer sheet towards one of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson, which could make a Grubauer-esque trade much more of a reality than what we currently anticipate.
Still, I doubt Colorado is where Marleau lands. Denver is nearly 1500km from San Jose and the Avalanche would be better suited to chase other options with the money they have to spend this offseason.
Regardless, it is very interesting that Colorado has been involved in conversations about a Marleau trade, which could indicate the Leafs will have to part with a significant asset to relieve themselves of the $6.25-million cap hit.
Arizona
If there were any experts in the NHL in taking on a bad contract to acquire an asset, the Arizona Coyotes and general manager John Chayka would be at the top of the list.
With a resume of Pavel Datsyuk, Dave Bolland, and Marian Hossa, Arizona has not been afraid to take on a cap hit in order to acquire an asset. Despite Patrick Marleau’s intention to play in 2019-20, unlike previous acquisitions made by the Coyotes in this scenario in the past, Arizona has been mentioned as an interested club.
The Coyotes’ history makes them a likely trade candidate, as does their proximity to San Jose (975km). From a Toronto perspective, Arizona would be near the bottom of the list of preferred trading partners, however, as it would take a legitimate asset to get Arizona to take on Marleau’s $6.25 million on roster cap hit this season.
In the past, Arizona has been able to move up in the first round to draft Jakob Chychrun, get Lawson Crouse out of Florida, and pry Vinnie Hinostroza out of Chicago in these trades.
Contrary to popular belief, Arizona doesn’t need to add money to hit the floor, another difference to the situation this time around. In fact, they have just under $14 million in cap space, but with no significant RFAs could be a player this offseason with room to use.
Set defensively, Arizona is looking towards adding offence this summer. To take Marleau’s contract, Chayka will be looking to add an asset that the Leafs don’t want to part with. Could the asking price be Kasperi Kapanen? Andreas Johnsson? What about a prospect such as Jeremy Bracco?
If this were to happen, the Toronto Maple Leafs would receive something in return, likely a moderately high draft pick. Still, losing Kapanen or Johnsson to move Marleau’s cap hit would not only be an extremely tough pill to swallow but would also defeat the purpose of clearing space in the first place.
The key point is this: Arizona is interested and is the fourth closest NHL team to San Jose. If the asking price lowers, or shifts towards a draft pick, the Coyotes could still be a very likely destination for Patrick Marleau.
Anaheim
The Anaheim Ducks are in in a weird position with talents such as Ryan Getzlaf and John Gibson, bad contracts such as Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler, but also a mix of exciting, young talent such as Sam Steel and Troy Terry.
The first team here that is not a playoff threat, the Ducks are a potential partner where a prospect or draft pick could get a deal done.
The fascinating possibility comes with Anaheim’s potential LTIR candidates, however. The Ducks are not a team that can stomach spending multiple millions on injured players, a luxury the Toronto Maple Leafs own. Anaheim has two players that are candidates to land on LTIR for 2019-20, which could open the possibility of a David Clarkson-Nathan Horton-esque swap.
Patrick Eaves played just 14 games split between the NHL and the AHL last year, recovering from post-viral syndrome. Ryan Kesler appeared in 60 games last season, but everyone knows he’s dealing with significant injury concerns after double hip surgery in the spring.
Do I see a Marleau-Kesler trade being a possibility? I doubt it, simply due to the fact Kesler has a whopping three years remaining at $6.875 million. That’s a massive amount to take on for just one year of Marleau’s contract.
Toronto would be eating over $20 million in three seasons in actual dollars to relieve themselves of Patrick Marleau’s $6.25-million cap hit for just one season. It simply doesn’t make sense, even for a massively rich club like the Toronto Maple Leafs.
One that does make a lot more sense is Patrick Eaves. With just one year left, Eaves is a prime candidate for this type of trade. If a deal were to occur after July 1, Anaheim would save $250 thousand in actual dollars in an Eaves-Marleau swap. It’s minor, but it would minimize the cost to move on from Marleau. A couple of mid-round picks or a B-minus prospect could get this sort of deal done.
An aspect that could put a halt in things would be Anaheim’s own cap situation. Even without Eaves or Kesler factoring in, the Ducks are projected to have only $14 million to work with. Marleau would eat up just under half of that, limiting other moves Bob Murray may want to make.
Despite their minor cap concerns, Anaheim is a fascinating trade partner from a pure fit perspective, though the Ducks have yet to be mentioned as an interested party.
Los Angeles
The Los Angeles Kings would be a perfect fit for the Toronto Maple Leafs, except for one glaring issue: The Kings have no cap space.
LA is the closest NHL city to San Jose, the Kings are rebuilding, and they should be looking to weaponize cap space and take advantage of a team close to the ceiling. But thanks to years of mismanagement following their Stanley Cups in 2011 and 2013, the Kings are in cap hell despite living in the basement of the National Hockey League.
Now, Los Angeles’ cap projections come in a little hot thanks to Brendan Leipsic‘s surprisingly high projection of $2.3 million next season. Still, the Kings sit at just under $15 million in cap space today and just over $6 million with their RFA projections.
Unlike most teams, a Toronto-Los Angeles trade would not be in the same vein as most cap dump deals. Instead of a Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen type trade, look towards a straight swap of bad deals.
The Kings have a multitude of less than ideal contracts. Dion Phaneuf was just bought out, Jeff Carter has fallen off a cliff, while Dustin Brown (three years), Anze Kopitar (five years), and even Drew Doughty‘s (eight years) deals could turn ugly quick.
The name that brings intrigue to the Toronto Maple Leafs would be Ilya Kovalchuk. After returning to North America last summer in a much-hyped signing, Kovalchuk flopped in LA. 16 goals and 34 points in 64 games were nowhere near the expectation, as Kovalchuk was coming off of a 1.19 points-per-game performance in the KHL.
Come season’s end, Kovalchuk suffered an injury and found himself playing fourth line minutes upon return. With two more years and an obvious change of scenery needed, a Marleau-Kovalchuk swap could be an intriguing fit.
From a monetary perspective, Marleau and Kovalchuk both come in at a cap hit of $6.25 million, though Kovalchuk’s runs through the end of the 2020-21 season. As the cap hits exchanged would be a wash, Toronto would need Los Angeles to retain on Kovalchuk’s contract.
Here’s the breakdown if the Kings were to retain 25% of Kovalchuk’s remaining deal in a trade:
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If the Kings were to retain 25%, they would save over $3.5 million in actual dollars. They would be taking a higher cap hit for 2019-20 and a portion into 2020-21, but they would be freeing themselves from a potential distraction in Kovalchuk and replacing him with one of the most well-respected players in the game in Patrick Marleau.
Kovalchuk has a $5.3 million bonus due on July 1, meaning a trade after the start of the new season would actually cost Los Angeles more.
For the Kings, motivation to make this move would come from moving a potential nuisance from the locker room, while also sending the second year of the deal away. They would also save a decent amount of actual dollars.
For Toronto, they would move on from Marleau while also helping their left wing depth. As talented as the Leafs forward group is, the left wing is fairly devoid of talent. Zach Hyman, Andreas Johnsson, Trevor Moore, and Marleau were the left-wingers come playoff time. If Kovalchuk still has scoring prowess left in him, playing on the left side of Auston Matthews and William Nylander or John Tavares and Mitch Marner would certainly get it out of him.
Playing on a terrible Los Angeles team, Ilya Kovalchuk still managed 18 goals. Remember, just over a year ago he was one of the leading scorers in the KHL. A move to Toronto could reignite him playing with a group of young, hungry stars ready to win.
A Kovalchuk-Marleau swap may not save the Toronto Maple Leafs a ton of money ($1.3 million if 25% is retained) but does offer a different proposal Kyle Dubas could be interested in.
San Jose
A return to San Jose is the best case scenario for Patrick Marleau, but there’s a slim chance of it happening. San Jose simply doesn’t have the cap space to absorb Marleau’s salary, even if the Leafs were to retain 50% of the hit.
Though the Sharks had lots of room to work with, the re-signing of Erik Karlsson plummets that number down to $14 million with more significant pieces to retain.
Factoring in restricted free agents such as Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc, as well as unrestricted free agents Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton, it will be tough for Doug Wilson to keep all of his players under the cap, let alone bringing back Patrick Marleau.
Simply put, it would be incredibly difficult to work out a deal with the Sharks to bring Marleau back home for a final season. His $6.25-million cap hit is just too much to swallow for a cap-strapped San Jose team. Even a fully retained $3.125 million is tough to accept given the Sharks’ situation.
There are other options for a return to San Jose, however. Just look at a previously mentioned deal from last summer, where Brooks Orpik was bought out after being traded to Colorado in order to return to Washington.
If the Leafs were unable to find a proper deal with one of the teams closer to San Jose, a trade could be finalized to a team that agrees to buy out Marleau’s final year, making him a free agent.
As a 35+ contract, the team buying out Marleau would receive no cap benefits. The team would still be on the hook for $6.25 million for 2019-20, though they would be able to spread the remaining money slightly. A buyout would save $833,333 this year, but cost $416,667 in 2020-21. From a pure cap perspective though, the team would only recoup the contract slot and roster space.
The situation is clear here. If Marleau is to make a final return to San Jose, it will have to come with the help of a third party.
So What is Going to Happen?
There are a lot of moving pieces in a Patrick Marleau trade. Anaheim could still clear space with whatever’s happening with Corey Perry, Colorado could threaten an offer sheet, or an unknown team could swoop in and offer to buy Marleau out in a trade.
Kyle Dubas and co. will have their work cut out for them. Brandon Pridham was the mastermind behind the Clarkson-Horton swap and his knowledge of the CBA will be crucial to making a good trade for the Toronto Maple Leafs here.
Combine the complexity of this trade with the amount of work being done at the moment with the quickly approaching entry draft, the three significant RFAs, as well as unrestricted free agency, and the Toronto Maple Leafs staff have their work cut out for them in the coming two weeks.
If I had to bet on a destination, Los Angeles just seems like too good of a fit. Even if my proposed Kovalchuk swap is not what Toronto would be interested in, the Kings are a fit from every angle. They are rebuilding, they are as close to San Jose as you can get without being in San Jose, they have bad contracts and need young talent, and new hire Todd McLellan is very familiar with the player. They could use a player with the leadership of Patrick Marleau to help right the ship after a turmoil-filled 2019.
Next. New Salary Cap Projections Not Kind to Leafs. dark
In summation, what we know for sure is this: Patrick Marleau and the Maple Leafs are set to part ways. How that actually occurs is a whole other complex ball game with many factors to consider, but the end result will be fascinating regardless of who the trading partner is.