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Toronto Maple Leafs Roundtable: The Marner Saga

By Mike Stephens

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 21: Mitch Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates during the third period against the Boston Bruins during Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scotiabank Arena on April 21, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 21: Mitch Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates during the third period against the Boston Bruins during Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scotiabank Arena on April 21, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – APRIL 21: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Boston Bruins in Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 21, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs 4-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – APRIL 21: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Boston Bruins in Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 21, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs 4-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Kyle Cushman

As much as I enjoy mass chaos, the Marner saga will end positively for all parties involved.

It will likely go past July 1st, giving Leafs Nation anxiety through the roof, but Mitch Marner will re-sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs. This extreme talk of “Auston Matthews money” has been overblown. I would be dumbfounded if the Marner camp genuinely believes that he is worth as much as a generational goal scorer, one that is a centre nonetheless.

I also don’t believe that the Marner camp is prepared to accept an offer sheet, significantly lowering their leverage once the negotiations go past the start of free agency. With the trend of younger players making more money off of entry-level contracts, I would anticipate Marner’s AAV to come in between $9.5 million and $10 million.

Is that an overpayment based on recent comparables? Sure, but only to the tune of $500,000 at most.

The value you would be losing on a slight overpayment to a player the quality of Mitch Marner is nowhere near the value you would be losing if the Leafs decided to trade him. While this saga has been messy, with plenty of drama coming directly out of the Marner camp, I do believe we will see a pleasant ending. Marner will remain with the team he dreamed of playing for, Kyle Dubas will retain his asset at a reasonable cap hit, and we can shift our offer sheet worries to the pair of Scandinavian wingers who are also set to reach restricted free agency in three weeks time.

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