If the Toronto Maple Leafs let Jake Gardiner go in free-agency, they will regret it.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a team built on the principles of analytic analysis. If there is a team in the NHL that recognizes how good Jake Gardiner is in reality, compared to how is viewed by fans, it’s them.
The Leafs have Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott as locks to patrol their blue-line next season. Who will fill in the other 3 spots is, right now, a mystery.
But one of those spots should go to Gardiner who is one of the best defenseman in the history of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Jake Gardiner
One thing that killed the Leafs this past spring was that Gardiner and Dermott were both injured. They were ineffective on a third pairing that should have been dominating.
This back injury was really unfortunate, because it not only prevented the Leafs from advancing, but it cost Gardiner the chance to redeem himself for the previous year’s game seven (where Freddie Andersen couldn’t save half the shots he faced with Jake on the ice, but where Gardiner took all the blame).
But make no mistake – whatever your opinion is about Jake Gardiner, the stats say he is a star player, even an elite one.
At 5v5, he scores as much as anyone, and he backs it up with great defensive impacts.
A look at the stats for his career shows that the only years when he wasn’t significantly getting the Leafs more goals when on the ice than allowing was the two years they were among the worst in the NHL.
Fact is, Jake Gardiner is so great statistically that if you want to stick to the narrative that he is bad defensively, or bad in general, you are as much as saying that you do not think anyone has the ability to measure a hockey player’s performance.
And that is a ridiculous statement, ergo the stats must be true and Jake Gardiner is awesome.
So clearly the Leafs can’t afford to lose their best all-round defenseman. Does it matter that their top-four would all be left-handed? Not at all.
And the back injury could play into the Leafs hands here. The Leafs are cup contenders, and Gardiner probably would like to win the Cup on the team he grew up with, and helped build up to this point.
And while Gardiner would normally be able to cash in huge this off-season, that back injury might deflate his value.
So wouldn’t it make sense for both team and player to come to terms on a one-year extension? Gardiner could get a modest raise, prove he is healthy and go for the big payday next year.
The Toronto Maple Leafs would solve a problem, keep their cap in tact, and retain one of the best players to ever dress for them.
Seems like a win-win.
If not, screw it, sign him long term. He’s worth it.