Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Will be Better Next Year

The Toronto Maple Leafs just finished their first year as a contender.

While people complain that the Toronto Maple Leafs lost in the first round for the third straight time, they leave out a lot of information when saying that.

It’s true the Leafs lost three times in a row in the first round, but the first two don’t count.

In year one, the Leafs were not even expected to make the playoffs. They did, and they almost beat the Washington Capitals, a legacy team that would go on to win a cup the following year.

In year two, they were expected to make the Playoffs, but not contend. Instead they finished tied for sixth overall and then got screwed over by a stupid NHL playoff formatting system that made them face one of the only teams better then they were.

Still, they almost won, leading into the third period of game seven against another legacy team, one which was packed with veterans, hall of famers and had nearly a decade of contending experience.

In both years, they over-achieved.

This year, the Toronto Maple Leafs would have won if not for a Kadri suspension and injuries to Travis Dermott and Jake Gardiner which rendered their league-best third pairing almost completely useless.

So, they do keep getting better, it’s just that raw uncontextualized results don’t really illustrate that.

And they’ll be even better next year.

Leafs Improving

There are several reasons why the Leafs will be better next year.

For one, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander are just about to hit their best years.

More from Editor In Leaf

Hockey players tend to peak from age 22-25, and the Leafs Big Three is entering that zone right now. Good luck to the opposition.

Another reason they’ll be better is that William Nylander will return to his superstar status. He and Matthews, when paired, are the highest scoring combo 5v5 in the NHL. This will help.

A third reason they’ll be better is addition by subtraction. Ron Hainsey is the worst top-pairing player in the NHL, Nikita Zaitsev makes everyone he skates with worse, and Patrick Marleau scored at a lower rate than Frederik Gauthier.

Just by exchanging each of these players with a random AHL player, the Toronto Maple Leafs will improve.

Furthermore, the Leafs have players like Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin on the horizon. They’ll be better able to spend their salary cap money if they lose Marleau, Brown, Hainsey, Zaitsev etc. and replace them on the cheap. This means possibly one more elite level player can be added.

People worry about the defense, but I think they’ll bring back Jake Gardiner, and along with Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott they’ll have one of the best blue lines in the NHL.

The Leafs will do better next year is because their power-play won’t be so ineffective. The Leafs PP was among the best in the NHL – in everything except goals.

That is a good thing, because shooting percentage is random. The Lightning shot over 20% and the Leafs were around 10%. This led the Lightning having the best PP in the NHL, even though the Leafs controlled the puck more, and generated more chances. The law of averages will work in the Leafs favor here.

But the biggest reason the Leafs will do better next year is because this year they didn’t dress their optimal lineup for even a single game. The one game they almost did it, Kadri was injured in the first period.

The Leafs finished pretty high in the standings last year for a team who didn’t have a good power-play and wasn’t ever fully healthy.

Next. It's Been Rumour City for the Maple Leafs. dark

Since they won’t be losing anyone of significance off their roster – with the possible exception of Jake Gardiner – it’s highly likely that they will be better next season.

I fully expect them to win the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup.

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