Toronto Maple Leafs: Why It’s OK to Over-Pay Mitch Marner

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to give Mitch Marner a new contract.

If you’ve been living in a cave, you might be unaware, but otherwise it won’t be news to you that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner are in a difficult negotiation.

The difficulty stems from the fact that Marner’s dad and agent are telling Darren Dreger that his client will try to get an offer-sheet if the Leafs don’t pay him like they paid Auston Matthews.

The problem, of course, is that Mitch Marner isn’t anywhere close to as good as Auston Matthews.

But that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get paid.

Leafs and Marner

The comparables for Mitch Marner’s contract seem to be in the $9 million range.  Leading to all sorts of smart people saying crazy things like “take the four picks if he signs for too much.”

The fact is though, that these people are making these decisions without any actual risk.  It’s easy to say you’d take the picks when you don’t actually have any say.

But Mitch Marner is the biggest thing in this town since Wendel Clark.  It was possible to trade Clark because of his injury history, and the fact that he was older.

But losing a 22 year old Marner isn’t something Kyle Dubas will survive.  The four picks are good only on paper.  They aren’t good in real life where Mitch Marner isn’t just a great player, but a great personality who is born in the city he plays in.

He’s more than just any player, and losing him over a million or two dollars would be idiotic.

These people who want the team to play hardball with the second best player they’ve ever drafted, don’t seem to be considering that when Patrick Kane signed his post-ELC deal, the NHL was a different place.

In today’s NHL players don’t get as much money for past performance, as analytics have changed the way contracts are handed out.  Teams would now rather bet on their  young players, overpay them today in the hopes that a couple years down the road the player will be worth his cap hit with several years left on the deal.

That is why it’s a bad comparison to say that Patrick Kane signed for X percentage of the cap years ago, and so Marner should too.

Not How it Works Now

Fact is, Mitch Marner isn’t worth $11.5 today.  But with the NHL essentially allowing gambling, as well as expanding, the salary cap (which is linked to revenue) will be going up, up, up.

Signing Marner for $11.5 today would be a terrible deal.  But it’s better than losing him.  If you could sign him for that much money on an eight year deal, you’d be getting a steal by the time the contract was half over.

Mitch Marner is still getting better.  He scored 94 points at age 21 and that makes him a good bet to one day be in the Hall of Fame.

If you trade Marner in a cold-hearted move because he wants more than he is worth today, you’re screwing over this franchise like it’s never been screwed before.  Teams need players who are more than just a warm body. They need heroes.  They need ambassadors.

Think of what Marner means to the most important members of Leafs Nation – kids 4 to 12 years old.  To them he is a god.  To lose that, over what it would cost to waive Connor Brown is just so damn stupid.

The Leafs have a winner in Mitch Marner, and if you’re every going to overpay anyone, overpay him.

Frankly, it’s laughable that people want to take the picks rather than overpay slightly.  Connor Brown, Nikita Zaitsev, Patrick Marleau, Ron Hainsey and others on the Leafs roster are way, way overpaid.  But you want to draw the line in sand with one of the best players to ever put on the uniform?

And you want to take a condescending tone with anyone who thinks differently?  Please.

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• Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Needs To Be Taken Seriously

The bottom line is that Mitch Marner is a special player who you can’t replace.  No one is saying that you should just meet his demands wholesale.

I am saying that it’s not worth the fight. The Leafs can’t win here.  You can’t replace him, and your fans will hate you.  You’ll rip this team apart before it even has a chance to show how special it can be.

Over what – a million pucks and some lame-ass principle you have about money and risk that isn’t yours?

Whatever the Leafs pay Marner – and there is a number that is too much, but I would need Brandon Pridham to tell me what it is – it will almost certainly end up being a team-friendly number within a few years.

Having Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander locked in for the entirety of their 20s is worth almost anything.

The pro-Marner faction of this fanbase is the side I never agree with about anything.  But my pro-stats friends have lost the thread here.  They are too afraid about looking silly that they won’t consider anything bigger than some arbitrary number they came up with based on cap percentages and guys they think are comparable.

But Mitch Marner isn’t comparable to anyone – and that’s because of who he is and what he means to this team.  They also aren’t thinking of the fact that it’s now standard practice to overpay now in the hope you get a friendly number with time.

Mitch Marner is going re-sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it’s going to be for a number that the people I usually agree with do not like.

This is turning into one of those things where the “smart” people have come up with answer and will no longer discuss it.  Unfortunately, those people do not seem to be considering the entire situation.