Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-19 Player Grades

The Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-19 season is in the books.

Overall, it was a good first season of the post rebuild phase. Even though Toronto Maple Leafs   were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, I think that overall, the team is on the right track.

The Leafs have some of the best young players in the NHL, and they’ve got a solid mix of in-their-prime veterans and up-and-coming prospects that should keep them at or near the top of the NHL standings for years to come.

This year the expectations were raised extremely high with the signing of John Tavares, and the team did fail to deliver on them by going out so early in the playoffs. However, if we look beyond the results, if we look at the details – an unfair matchup for the seventh place team, a third pairing with two injured players struggling to keep up, the Kadri injury, Hyman playing three games on a torn MCL etc. – then I don’t think we should be too hard on the Leafs for losing.

The Toronto Maple Leafs did lose, but they could have easily won.  A couple cheesy goals against Andersen, a ridiculous Bruins power-play, and the solid goaltending might have cost the Leafs the series, but those seven games did show that even shorthanded than can outplay the Bruins.

With possible exceptions of Colorado and Buffalo, you’d be hard pressed to find a better, younger, more high-potential roster than the Leafs currently have.

The future is bright, but let us look to the past one last time and hand out some player grades for the 2018-19 season.

Auston Matthews by James Tanner

Auston Matthews is probably already the best player in the history of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  If he isn’t, give him another two years and they’ll be no debate.

The only thing holding him back is a series of unfortunate injuries. He missed 20 games last year, and 14 this year.  Other than that, he’s probably one of the best two or three players in the NHL.

Matthews leads the NHL in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes since he entered the NHL. Last season he was sixth.

Matthews is fifth in the NHL in 5v5 points per 60 minutes since entering the NHL. Last season he was 11th. (Stats naturalstattrick.com)

The slight drop in production relative to the league is easily explained: Matthews most common winger this season was Kasperi Kapanen, who had one goal and two assists in his last 14 games of the season.

Kapanen simply can’t score at a first line rate, while Nylander and Matthews combine to be the highest scoring 5v5 pairing in the NHL.

Overall, Matthews‘ injuries aren’t his fault.  It’s not his fault that Babcock doesn’t give him the ice time he deserves. Having to play with Kasperi Kapanen isn’t his fault.  He scored 37 goals and 73 points in just 68 games. He is the Leafs best player, and one of the best players in the NHL.

He get’s an A+.

John Tavares by James Tanner

John Tavares signed the biggest and most expensive free-agent contract in NHL history to come and play for the Toronto Maple Leafs – his home town team.

Expectations could not have been higher, and Tavares met every single one of them.  Not sure what he was thinking here, but that’s the only bad thing you can say about him.

The fact is, with everyone in the NHL not from Toronto cheering against him, Tavares had the best season of his career. He led the NHL in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes.  He led the NHL in 5v5 goals.

Only the fact that he isn’t the #1 PP option prevented him from leading the league in total goals and getting the Rocket Richard Trophy.

Tavares finished the season with an incredible 47 goals and 88 points.  Probably he’s over 100 if his left winger isn’t Zach Hyman, and if his coach gives him the amount of ice time he deserves.

Tavares was one of the highest scoring players in the NHL on a points/per/minute basis, and he essentially did everything he was asked to and more.

Now if only the coach would use him for more than one minute at a time on the PP and give him some PK time, he could be even better.  Like Matthews, any problems you see in Tavares’ game can be traced directly back to the coach.

He gets an A+, obviously.

Nazem Kadri by James Tanner

After spending the last couple years growing into a decent shut-down centre, the Leafs acquired John Tavares in the offseason, and Kadri became the team’s third line centre, and, for the most part, was stripped of his shut-down role.

He dropped from 32 goals in each of the last two seasons, to just 16 this past year.  This isn’t as bad as it looks, however.  For one, he got less ice time.  For another, while he was inexplicably on the first PP (why have three centres on it?) he wasn’t getting the same touches he got previously. For a third reason, he hit a ton of goal posts, and his shooting percentage was down.

Kadri had a 53% Corsi, scored at a half-way decent rate (all things considered) and finished with 44 points, which isn’t bad considering he missed nine game with a concussion.

When you factor in the concussion, the change of role, and the bad luck (all those goal posts) Kadri really did have a better season than the stats indicate.  He also gave the Leafs the best centre depth in the NHL.

An unfortunate suspension in the playoffs takes some of the shine of of him, but overall, he’s a good player and I’d like to see him back. (Though he is excellent trade bait, so we’ll see).

I give Kadri a B+.

Frederik Gauthier by James Tanner

Frederik Gauthier played in 70 games as the Leafs fourth line centre. This is a place in which the team could easily improve in the off-season.

As much as I want to like this player for his determination and perseverance, I just cannot come around because the stats are too bad.

Three goals in 70 games?  That’s bad.  Only 14 points in total, which is worse. Gauthier also had the worst Corsi relative to his team, at -6.65%.

So to be clear: he doesn’t score, and he doesn’t stop the other team from scoring.  Tyler Ennis went from a 45% player with Gauthier to a 65% player without him.

The only thing stopping Gauthier from being the worst player on the team was the existence of Patrick Marleau.  Gauthier is not an NHL player, that much is apparent. He doesn’t have any business playing on a contending team like the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I like Guathier, I’d like to give him a higher grade.  I wish he was the player he looks every couple games like he could be.  But he isn’t and if he is, he’s going to have to become that player playing on a different team.

What I don’t understand about the NHL, is why does the fourth line need to feature players like this? They generally play against the other team’s 4th line, and they get, maybe, ten minutes per night.  You don’t dress a defensive fourth liner and play him against other team’s first lines. So why not give the role to a player who might score a few extra goals?

I really liked Tyler Ennis on the fourth line. I’d like to see two other Tyler Ennises make up the rest of it.

Patrick Marleau by James Tanner

Patrick Marleau has had a great career.  Whatever the Toronto Maple Leafs were counting on when they signed him, by all reports he has provided it.

But leadership aside, Patrick Marleau just can’t contribute to an NHL team anymore.  Marleau turns 40 before next season starts, and unfortunately, the years have caught up to him.

Marleau finished the year with 16 goals and 37 points, and the lowest points per minute mark among the team’s forwards.  Freddie Gauthier scored more points per minute.

Marleau’s Corsi was -2% relative to his team, negating any defense he may have provided to make up for his lack of offense.  Sadly, instead of giving the aged veteran a night or a week off to regroup and try to find his game, the Leafs embarrassingly put his iron-man streak ahead of team success.

Marleau was inneffective offensively and defensively. Babcock skated him just a minute less than Tavares and Matthews, and then doubled down on Marleau in the playoffs.

It didn’t work and won’t work next year.  Marleau has had a great career, but he’s got to put the team first and hang up his skates.

He gets an F.

Zach Hyman by James Tanner

Zach Hyman is a great player playing too high up in the lineup, is something I have thought all season long. I respect the things he brings to the game – his tenacity, his ability to drive play – but I also feel like in a weird way we, as NHL fans, have been conditioned to under-appreciate offense, and that another 10 or 15 points would be better than what Hyman is bringing to the table.

Hyman had a good year – a positive possession rating relative to his team, and 20 goals and 21 assists in 71 games.  The question is, however, did he have a good year for playing where he played?  His points per hour rate is very good, but shouldn’t it be higher playing with the two guys ranked 4th and 5th? (Once again, all stats for this entire piece are from naturalstattrick.com).

Normally, we could look at WOWY stats (With You Without You) to determine how his line-mates performed without him, but of the 1000 5v5 minutes John Tavares played, only 93 of them were without Hyman.

Hainsey and Rielly each played about half their minutes with Hyman and without him, and they put up better numbers without him.

The 20 goals are nice, but they also include six empty netters.  (Led the NHL).

Overall, Tavares scored 60 5v5 points, and Marner scored 58. Hyman had just 33.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs had a player who could match the points the other two members of this line put up, there is no possible way that Tavares and Marner score less.  If Hyman has intangibles worth 25 points, I’ll eat my hat.

There is just no way this player should be in this role. He’s a good penalty killer though, and I like him a lot, so I’ll give him a generous C+.

Tyler Ennis by James Tanner

Other than Robin Lehner in New York, it’s hard to think of a player who had a bigger impact out of last year’s show-me UFA deals for vets.

Tyler Ennis was fantastic for the Toronto Maple Leafs this year, and hopefully they won’t mind re-signing to a new contract, because not only is a great player who helps the team out a lot when he is on the ice, but he’s extremely fun to watch.

Tyler Ennis put up a 46% Corsi and had 12 goals and 18 points in 51 games.  It doesn’t sound very good without the context, but the context is everything in this case.

First, Ennis jumped from a 46% player to a 61% player whenever he got away from FrederiK Gauthier.  It was an error on Mike Babcock’s part not to recognize Ennis contributions and get him more ice time with better players.  Certainly he may have been an interesting addition to the Tavares line, as a replacement for Hyman, or on the Kadri line replacing Marleau.

Ennis scored 1.85 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice-time, just below Hyman’s 1.96 and Kasperi Kapanen’s 1.90.  He scored more per minute than Kadri, Nylander, Marleau, and Brown.  Ennis did it playing the majority of his playing time with the offensive black hole that is Frederik Guathier.

His next two most common linemates were Par Lindholm and Josh Leivo.

It is harder to score goals against fourth liners with Par Lindholm and Freddie Gauthier, than it is to score goals against first liners with John Tavares and Mitch Marner.

There is no telling where the Toronto Maple Leafs could have gotten to this year if they’d had a coach with the creativity to try Ennis higher in the lineup.

Ennis played great, when given the opportunity.  Unfortunately for the Leafs, they were giving eight minutes per game to Ennis while hoping Pattie Marleau could leadership the puck into the net for 14 minutes per night.

It’s an A for Ennis.

Mitch Marner by Matt Vocino

After an impressive sophomore season in which Mitch Marner improved his point total from his rookie season by eight, Marner took his game to entirely new heights during his third season as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

In 82 games, a majority of which were spent on the wing of John Tavares, Marner put up a career high in goals with 26 and assists with 68.

Not only were his 94 total points a career high and the most scored by a Leaf in a season since Mats Sundin tallied 94 during the 1996-‘97 campaign, but it cemented his place in Leaf history as he became the youngest Maple Leaf to reach 90 points.

While Marner clearly had himself a year, his play alongside Tavares was key in making the former Islander’s first season a success. When playing with Marner at 5 on 5, his Corsi%, GF% and HDGF% numbers were noticeably better than without Marner.

Not to mention, Marner assisted on 26 of Tavares’ 47 regular season markers, many of which he recorded the primary assist.

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to do whatever it takes to sign him this Summer, as he’s only going to get better and better.

He gets an A+.

William Nylander by James Tanner

It’s hard to grade Nylander, since he was out until December due to a contract dispute that has colored how Leafs Nation views him.

Nylander could have scored 40 goals upon his return to the lineup and it is clear that the fans were always going to give him a hard time.  They’ll forgive him soon (people forget that Brendan Shanahan had not one, but two intense contract squabbles during his career) but for now, he’s a villain.

Which makes no sense. He’s only one of the three best players the team has drafted in forty or so years.  Since Sundin retired, he’s was the third best player to suit up for the Leafs until they signed Tavares.

He’s a franchise player.

He’s tearing up the worlds.

He was the team’s best possession driver (despite his apparently bad season) as well as one of their best playoff performers (he was second on the team in 5v5 scoring vs Boston, and his line outscored the Bruins by three).  One error repeated endlessly on TV has rendered these facts obscure, because people just remember that one give-away.

Oh well, he’s a millionaire who plays for the Leafs, is one of the best hockey players in the world, and he looks like a model – He doesn’t need to be popular.

In his supposedly terrible season, when Nylander was on the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs had 56% of the shot-attempts, 54% of the shots, 57% of the scoring chances and 55% of the goals. (Naturalstattrick.com for this whole article).

When on the ice, Nylander and his teammates combined to shot just 7.6% which other than Kadri was the lowest on the team.  His personal shooting percentage was 5.31%.

Those two numbers go a long, long way to show why Nylander’s point totals were so low this year.  From March to the end of the season, Nylander played 18 games (almost a quarter season) and his P/6 was back up to first line level – 2.12 p/6.

Conclusively, beyond any shadow of a doubt, Nylander’s season was good and idea that it was not is media driven nonsense. He struggled to score because of bad linemates, lack of PP time, and poor shooting percentage.

Overall, he gets a B+.

Kasperi Kapanen by Zoe Mason

In his first full season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Kasperi Kapanen did not disappoint.

In the absence of William Nylander, Kapanen had some pretty big shoes to fill, playing on the wing of Auston Matthews.

Nylander’s two-month absence due to a contract dispute was aptly handled largely as a result of Kapanen’s ability to keep up with and compliment the play of Matthews.

Undoubtedly, the most notable aspect of Kapanen’s game is his explosive speed. In the 2018-19 season, Kapanen’s speed was a weapon on the penalty kill and earned him two short-handed goals and countless other scoring opportunities.

By season’s end, Kapanen had racked up a respectable 44 points and was among the seven Leafs to score 20 or more goals. Kapanen’s success is even more impressive in the light of his splitting time between the second and third lines, as well as missing four games to injury.

Following his regular season success, his contribution in the playoffs was significantly less positive – 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 games played – but the season still came to a close as a career-best for Kapanen, who had dressed for only 55 games over the past 3 years previously.

Kasperi Kapanen was an active contributor, a reliable winger on a turbulent second line, and an unbeatably fast skater. Although denied rookie eligibility, 2018-19 was, in essence, his rookie campaign, and he still has a lot of room to grow.

Kapanen stepped up when he was needed, became a regular on a special team, and despite somewhat streaky offensive success, had an impressive campaign for a first go around. A great start but room for improvement. Therefore, his grade for the season is an B.  He was easily going to get an A until in the final month of the season he scored only two goals in 22 games.

Whether he remains a Leaf for 2019-20 or not, this is a player you want to keep watching as he continues to mature.

Connor Brown by James Tanner

Connor Brown broke in as a rookie three years ago and scored twenty goals. He has declined in every years since.

This past season, Brown scored just 8 goals, and 29 points dressing in every single game for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Brown’s most common linemate was Nazem Kadri, and this is another example of questionable coaching from Mike Babcock, as Brown doesn’t score nearly enough for a top nine role.

This was painfully obvious in the playoffs when Brown was used along with Marleau effectively neutralizing the elite offense of William Nylander. Brown is a valuable penalty killer, but since he can’t play above the fourth line on a contending team, he’s grossly overpaid and almost certainly is done in Toronto.

It’s a shame because he really could be one of the better fourth liners in the NHL, but you can’t spend $2 million on fourth liners when you’re trying to fit in as many elite players as possible under the cap.

Brown is the kind of player you can’t help but cheer for, but  he doesn’t have the offense for a top nine role, and that’s that.

I’ll give him a C  for his solid PK work and because I’m a fan.

Morgan Rielly by Peri Gallacher

To put it simply, Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly had his best season in his entire 6 year NHL career this 2018-2019 season.

Rielly played in all 82 regular season games as well as all 7 playoff games, and was a force on the ice in every single one despite his partner not being the most first string equipped player available to him.

Even in some the Leafs worst played games, Rielly was consistent and showed up each and every time. But that’s nothing new for Rielly, who has always been more reliable than most.

Besides his ice presence defensively, Rielly also had a record breaking offense season, beating his past season record of 52 points by a whopping 20 [52A 20G] for a career high of 72 total points.

The fact that in his total assists this year is the same as his total points in the 2017-2018 season is something to say, and that’s excluding playoff points , where he has a goal and 4 assists under his belt for this past season. ( Stats from  hockeydb.com )

It is also to be said that Rielly was easily one of the top defensemen in the league; having been one of the highest scoring defensemen in the league this season and being a valuable tool in 5v5 situations, Id like to say for the record that, Rielly was completely ROBBED BLIND of a Norris nomination.

Rielly’s character also spoke for itself this season, being one of the most humble guys in the world must be so tiring. Being quoted by Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, “… no one loves being a leaf more than [Rielly]” He’s proven himself as a true team player and key member in the locker room.

Rielly would also stick his neck out for his team mates when they were being but through the ringer [see Game 7 2019 post interview re: Jake Gardiner ] it’s not a stretch to say there were few players on the team who’s desire to succeed paralleled Rielly. From start to finish he gave his all and that in itself is enough for a good grade.

He gets an A+

Travis Dermott by Nick Barden

Travis Dermott had a solid 17 points in 64 games this season. He gets a B+

While he was mostly in the 3rd pairing, he still had the stats to show that he can move up in the pairings next season (pending Babcock shifts him up). Up until his shoulder injury, Dermott pretty much dominated the competition in third pairing minutes.

Dermott is the type of player that isn’t afraid to take a risk, but still stays back when needed. Some people may look at his point total and think, that’s not that good. This was technically Dermotts first season with the Leafs, but yet it wasn’t a full season.

While this grade is one that I really had to think about, it’s one that he’s earned. While he should be better next season (hoping he heals fully), he won’t put up top numbers unless he’s moved up to a top-4 pairing.

Even if you look at his points in the playoffs, it’s not bad at all for a defenseman. 3 points in the 7 games against Boston isn’t bad, and he had the 2nd most points as a defenseman on the team in the playoffs. I wasn’t being ‘nice’ with the B+ grade, he deserved it. Just look forward to next season when his grade could be a lot better, if he heals and if he’s higher up in the lineup.

Jake Muzzin by Nick Barden

Jake Muzzin gets a B+ for the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline.

One thing I believe that maybe some people don’t is that  Jake Muzzin is 100% the defenseman the Leafs  needed at the trade deadline.

This season, Muzzin had 37 points, his lowest total since the 16/17 season. I wanted to give Muzzin a higher grade, and in some parts of his game, he deserved it.

The way him and Zaitsev played against Boston in the playoffs was phenomenal, and even him just being able to contribute with Zaitsev beside him is remarkable. If you want to get into analytics a bit, his CF% was his highest since the 16/17 season and his PDO is the highest it’s ever been.

The reason why his grade is a B+ is because with the good season he’s had, there’s been things that have been difficult too. His move from LA to Toronto wasn’t as smooth as we would’ve hoped, but 4 points in his first 11 games isn’t bad either.

Of course, he’s not going to come to this team and ‘bloom’ right away. He’s has to get comfortable with the guys and get used to the systems. He wasn’t bad and he also wasn’t great, but a B+ grade is pretty good. With the way his season ended, I can tell next year will be a big year for him and I know he will take advantage of every opportunity he gets.

Jake Gardiner by Nick Barden

Jake Gardiner gets an A-.

There’s ‘A’ reason why Jake Gardiner’s grade is so high, and that’s because he could’ve had another career year, if not for being injured.

Some fans have never figured out that Gardiner is actually a defenseman that will be missed when and if he leaves after this season.

This season he only totaled 2 goals less than last season, but it’s not just that. His CF% and PDO were higher than last season as well. Even though his injury hurt the chances of him putting up numbers, he was still making the best out of it.

Gardiner is going to be a coveted defenseman that I’m sure tons of teams will want, and of course the Leafs will be one of the teams lining up knocking. He deserves every penny he makes on this next contract.

The reason why he’s getting an A- isn’t just because of his season in terms of stats. Gardiner will be missed a lot in this city and in this organization. He’s been loyal and it sucks that he’s been the lightning rod for casual fans to complain about for so long. The A- is also for his hard work, playing with a bad injury, and trying to help his team and city win a Stanley Cup, and that’s the most we can ask for.

Ron Hainsey by James Tanner

Ron Hainsey was one of the NHL’s leaders in plus/minus, and if you think for any reason that that is a good thing, then please read this article.  It’s very good and far more eloquent than I could manage.  Here’s a quote, but please do read the whole thing it’s extremely informative.

The purpose of analysis is to maximize the probability of future outscoring, and to do this requires looking at those metrics that suggest success is most likely in the future. Noting who outscored who doesn’t really matter if they do not continue outscoring. This is important. What is most likely to happen in the future is a better measure of who they truly are rather than what happened before. (Hohl, 2016).

Unfortunately for Hainsey’s future performance, other than goals, he was a negative in every major statistical category (shot-attempts and shots) despite playing with the likes of Rielly, Tavares and Marner for much of his time.

The plus minus stats have more to do with the fact that Freddie Andersen put up a Vezina worthy .929 save percentage when Hainsey is on the ice.  That’s a hall of fame level of goaltending, and it had nothing to do with Hainsey, and was just a flukey instance of happenstance (Hainsey has a long NHL career, and no history of inflating a goalie’s save percentage).

Morgain Rielly’s stats shot way up when on the ice with anyone else.

There’s not a winger in the NHL who can’t walk him at will.

The Toronto Maple Leafs playing Hainsey on the top pairing was, by far, the worst player deployment anyone in the NHL made last year.  The fact that the Leafs went into the playoffs with Hainsey on the top pair is unforgivable.  It is the #1 reason they lost.

Recent rumours that the Leafs might re-sign him are more terrifying than a Nightmare on Elm Street movie.

Oh but he’s great on the penalty kill!  Really?  The Leafs were 16th in the NHL in penalty killing, and they were under 80%.  I’m sure they can manage that terrible performance with just about anyone else on the first PK unit.

All I hear about is how Hainsey, Marner, Kapanen and Brown are such great penalty killers, but guess what? The Leafs penalty killing sucked.

Hainsey gets a D.

Nikita Zaitsev by Josh Tessler

Zaitsev’s performance over the course of last season was shaky.

When Zaitsev wasn’t in control of the puck, he didn’t appear to be that bad. His positioning at times was decent. But, as soon as he would take control of the puck, he would make plenty of mistakes.

He just appeared to be rather timid when it came to puck possession. Almost every time that Zaitsev touched the puck, he just appeared to look skittish. Instead of looking for the optimal pass or trying to drive up the ice, he decided to dump the puck.

In addition, his WAR per minute (Sean Tierney) was the second worst on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Whenever Zaitsev was on the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs were in jeopardy of coughing up a goal.

With the promise of his strong rookie season now far behind him, Zaitsev has a terrible contract that the Leafs would love to move.

With how ineffective Zaitsev was, you can’t possibly give him a good grade. Our grade for him is a C-.

Frederik Andersen by Josh Tessler

Frederik Andersen continued to improve last season.

When you line up Andersen’s stats from his 2017-18 campaign and his 2018-19 campaign, you’ll see that his Low Danger Save Percentage and his Medium Danger Save Percentage rose. The only slight issue was that Andersen’s High Danger Save Percentage dropped slightly.

But, his High Danger Save Percentage was still higher than Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens, Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning. If you are concerned about the drop in his High Danger Save Percentage, just keep in mind that Andersen had an awful Maple Leafs defensive unit in front of him.

In addition, there were plenty of games down the stretch in which Andersen kept the Leafs in the game. It’s hard to not appreciate all that Andersen does for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He is the backbone of their team, and at times, their best player.  Our grade for Andersen is an A-.

Garret Sparks by Wilbert Timmermans

Garret Sparks gets a C-.

Defining the season of Garret Sparks with a grade is a difficult thing to do. Cracking the Toronto Maple Leafs roster after a stellar season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies that resulted in winning the Calder Cup, is a tough thing to do.

However, the spot Sparks took over was from none other than Curtis McElhinney, arguably the best backup goaltender of the 2017 – 2018 season. Whether it was the pressure of becoming a NHL goalie, filling in the spot of McElhinney or the inconsistency of playing time, Sparks had a tough time adjusting to his role.

Ending the season with 20 games played, he had a save percentage of 0,902% and an goals against average of 3,05 (per HockeyDB). Numbers that need improving, especially compared to McElhinney’s save percentage of 0,934% and 2,14 goals against average.

Sparks performances on the ice were as inconsistent as they could come, showing great athleticism with great saves and letting in easy shots in the same game. Perhaps Sparks his season is best defined that for the playoffs Mike Babcock preferred Michael Hutchinson as backup goaltender for the playoffs which led me to give Sparks a C-

Despite this poor rating, I do believe there is still potential for Sparks to redeem himself next season. He’ll probably never be a starter anywhere, but could become a solid second like McElhinney.