Toronto Maple Leafs: Trade or Keep Kapanen and Johnsson?

Which player would you rather have on the Toronto Maple Leafs?

While much of the Toronto Maple Leafs offseason is being focused on signing Mitch Marner, there are still two other important RFA’s. Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen are the other two key RFA’s that need to be signed. It won’t be easy for Kyle Dubas to sign Marner, let alone all three of them because of the salary cap.

However, it’s not just the salary cap that’s the issue.

The Toronto Maple Leafs made two key additions in Egor Korshkov and Ilya Mikheyev. And while Korshkov is likely to start next season with the Toronto Marlies, Mikheyev could be on his way to the NHL. He could see a possible top six or, maybe, a top-nine role with the Leafs next season. If he ends up getting into the top six, where do you put both Johnsson and Kapanen?

With both Kapanen and Johnsson playing on Auston Matthews’ wing this past season, they’ve each come out with similar numbers. Kapanen finished off with 20 goals and 24 assists for 44 points, while Johnsson finished with 20 goals and 23 assists for 43 points.

Both players play a totally different game, which you would need on a line with Matthews. Johnsson is more of a grit player, going into the corner, getting the puck and winning the battles. While Kapanen is a get the puck, speed down the wing and fire a shot type of player.

Both players have almost exact standard stats (goals, assists, points), but you’d think maybe their advanced stats (CF%, SF%, xGF, xGA, xGF%) would be different. Nope, not at all.

With all of the advanced stats being close, there are two that stand out. The two are xGF (expected goals for) and xGA (expected goals against), which are almost opposite for the two.

Johnsson has a 36.3 xGF and a 36.3 xGA, while Kapanen has a 48.4 xGF and a 48 xGA. As Kapanen sits atop the xGF leaderboard, he also has more xGA, which is an argument to why Johnsson is the better player to keep.

But, Johnsson doesn’t have as high of an xGF as Kapanen, so it’s really hard to decide which player you keep. Each of the two players stats are almost identical except for one, and for Dubas, that may be the deciding factor. But, I doubt that.

Which player should Dubas sign?

My guess is, Dubas will probably try and sign both Kapanen and Johnsson. Both are good players that support Matthews very well. One winger has the speed to blow by defenders and the other is the one who will go into the rough areas to get the puck.

Does that line sound familiar to you? It’s almost like a slight downgrade to the Leafs first line. You have Zach Hyman going into the corners to get the pucks, John Tavares down the middle, plus the speedy winger in Marner who can get down the wing quick and either get a shot off, or pass it.

Both lines are almost as similar as Kapanen and Johnsson’s stats, but they will be asking for a lot of money. Maybe too much that the Leafs can offer. And, if that happens, it could likely go down to the wire as Dubas did with William Nylander, or there could be a trade.

I see the trade aspect being the more likely avenue. I believe that Johnsson is the easier player to sign because you can negotiate with him. Yes, you can do the same with Kapanen, but he has arbitration rights.

If Johnsson doesn’t get the money he wants, they would have to go to an arbitrator to settle it. Then, if Johnsson wins, he could get a lot more money than Dubas was hoping to sign him for. But, I don’t expect that to happen.

I think Dubas is more likely to sign one and trade the other. With the Toronto Maple Leafs in need of a defenseman, one of the two players could be very good trade bait. They don’t have enough money to sign Marner, Johnsson, and Kapanen, so one will be gone.

Who Would You Pick to be Traded?

I think the most likely player to be traded is Kapanen. It’s a tough argument because there are not many players on the Toronto Maple Leafs who are as fast as Kapanen, but it’s not just that. The negotiations with Kapanen would probably go to arbitration, and I doubt Dubas wants to go that far.

Johnsson is the better choice to keep. One reason is that he won’t go to arbitration. Another is, as much as he brings grit, he has speed too, which is an advantage.

As much as Kapanen has the “better” shot and he’s faster, I don’t think Dubas will want to go that far in trying to sign a player that may not fit into their cap situation. Also, Johnsson not being able to go to arbitration is an advantage.

But like I said, I think Dubas will try and sign both. He knows how much they are worth and he knows how high he can go in terms of money. But, the summer is long and one player could go, or both could stay.

The one who has the final say is Dubas, he gets the choice to keep both, or trade one, we just have to wait and see what he does.