Toronto Maple Leafs: Media Is Being RIDICULOUS Over Mitch Marner

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to sign Mitch Marner to a contract extension.

The Toronto Maple Leafs also have some cap problems.

Put the two together, mix them together with a 24/7 hype machine like the Toronto Media, and you have a bit of  sticky situation.

Add in the fact that Mitch Marner is from Toronto and is universally beloved, and you’ve got an even stickier situation.

Or at least it seems that way.  I doubt it’s that big a deal in reality.

Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner needs to be re-signed, and he will be.   The media is pumping his tires to a ridiculous degree, and fans are arguing like mad over what he’s worth.

But it’s not that hard to figure out.

Darren Dreger was on Leafs Lunch the other day talking casually about Marner signing for $11.5 million like it’s a foregone conclusion.

But let’s get real.

Are the Toronto Maple Leafs going to pay Mitch Marner to be the highest paid winger in the NHL?

No they are not. Not unless they are idiots. Nikita Kucherov’s new deal is for $9.5 million, and if the Leafs exceed that they have blundered.  Nikita Kucherov is a vastly superior player to Mitch Marner.

Oh but Tampa Bay has less taxes, you say?  If Mitch Marner hires a competent accountant, then he’s not gonna lose any money. Besides, the potential for endorsements is much larger in Toronto than the tax savings he’d get elsewhere.  It’s a bad argument.

Paying Marner more than Kucherov is madness.

Let alone how ridiculous it is to pay him the same as Tavares or Matthews.  If you think Marner is in anyway comparable to Matthews with what he brings to the table, I am sorry you are wrong. Opinions are nice, but facts are better.

It is a fact that Matthews is better.  I don’t care if the coach put Marner on the PK, that doesn’t make him the highest scoring player in the NHL on a per minute basis, like Matthews is.

There is a much better comparison to Marner than Matthews or Tavares, and that is William Nylander.

Over the last three seasons, which include one in which Nylander sat out for 20 odd games and then took a month to get in shape, only to be stymied by poor shooting percentages.

Nylander vs Marner since 2016

Shot-Attempts: 52.52% vs 51.31%

Shots: 49.88% vs 49.02%

Scoring Chances: 54.39% vs 54.26%

Goals: 56.52% vs 56.17%

As you can see, the Player on the left, William Nylander, is slightly better. Despite having a season in which people are calling a “lost season”  the Leafs, as a team, do better on the ice when Nylander is playing vs when Marner is.  (All stats 5v5 from Naturalstattrick.com).

Only slightly, but they do better.  And that sample size is from 240 games. Three seasons worth.

And Marner is closer than he should be, because of Nylander’s entire lost season. Prior to this season, they score at essentially the exact same rate per minute of 5v5 ice time.

Yes, Marner pads his stats with Power Play Points than Nylander doesn’t get, but all research tells us this is because of opportunity and nothing else.  If you gave Marner’s PP minutes to Nylander they’d get the same amount of points, because they are extremely similar players (in terms of results).

90% of the game is played 5v5, btw.

I don’t mind paying Marner more than Nylander because he’s younger, he probably has a higher ceiling, he does kill penalties, and he does have PP success.

But not four million dollars more.

That’s insane.

It’s ridiculous.

It’s indefensible.

If Marner won’t sign for $9.5 million annually on a six year deal, (and if he’d sign for eight years, I would do a half-million more) then you trade him.

It’s that simple.  If you turn Marner into three players on cheap contracts you’re probably coming out ahead.  Especially if you get players with high-ceilings who can help you immediately.

This shouldn’t be anyone’s first choice, and I think it’s irrelevant because the Toronto Maple Leafs will almost certainty get this done. But it’s sure as hell a better option than making a good, not great, winger into the highest paid at his position.

Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Ovechkin and Patrick Kane are five wingers who Marner isn’t even close to, let alone better than.  I love Mitch Marner. I’m glad that he is on the Toronto Maple Leafs.  But if you are putting him top five, you’re overrating him.

And you can’t make a top ten winger the highest paid at his position.

His closest comparable is William Nylander, who makes under seven-million and get’s called overpaid.

You do the math.