Toronto Maple Leafs: Playoff Efforts Getting Better

Toronto Maple Leafs fans are not happy.

After an impressive show in Game 1, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t hesitate to express their disappointment following a poorly played and atrociously officiated 4-1 loss to the Boston Bruins on Saturday.

In light of the intense criticism that the Leafs have been receiving in the wake of Saturday’s loss, it seems like a good time to look back on the last two times the Leafs met the Bruins.

In the last six years, the Leafs have faced the Bruins three times in the first round of the playoffs, building a rivalry that has dominated Leafs Nation in recent years and put tensions with the Montreal Canadiens and the Ottawa Senators on the back burner.

Before we condemn these Leafs to a third straight first-round exit at the hands of the Bruins, let’s take a look at the numbers from these last two meetings and compare them to what the Leafs have accomplished today.

First of all, Thursday’s 4-1 win already represents an improvement over previous matchups: in fact, its the first time the Leafs have won the first game of a playoff series since 2003 against the Philadelphia Flyers.

The 4-1 win represented another milestone for the more superstitious type, breaking what some describe as a “curse” that strikes the Leafs in a very specific scenario: namely, having four goals and a lead on Boston in the third period at TD Garden.

The curse began with the heartbreaking third-period blowout that eliminated Toronto from playoff contention in 2013 after being up 4-1 after 40 minutes and reared its ugly head again last spring when the Leafs entered the third in Boston up 4-3, only to lose the elimination match 7-4.

For the first time in a long time, the Leafs struck early and maintained a lead, on Boston ice no less.

Round One: 2013

While regular season success is hardly a marker of postseason success, it’s important to note that the 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs clinched their playoff spot a few games from the end of their 48-game season, which was shortened due to a lockout. It was their first playoff berth since 2003-04, and they likely wouldn’t have made it in a full 82-game season.

This year’s team may only have clinched a few games before the season’s close, but they’ve been all but a sure thing since midseason. They’re also riding what is now a three-year streak of playoff appearances, meaning this team is a lot more prepared for the kind of hockey played in the postseason – and the kind of hockey played by the Boston Bruins in particular.

But let’s take a look at those series. Two games into the 2013 series, a matchup where the Bruins also had home ice advantage, the Leafs were in a very similar spot to where they are now, stealing one win on Boston ice before heading back to their own barn. They had scored a cumulative five goals in two games and allowed six. However, things took a dramatic shift for the 2013 Leafs when they went on to lose two at home, allowing 9 goals and being pushed to the brink of elimination.

It’s worth noting that the 2013 Leafs, however, had a shoddy home record with only 13 wins at home. This year, the Leafs posted a home record of 23-16-2 in the regular season.

Bruins Back for More: 2018

What is more useful for the purposes of this investigation is the numbers that a very similar Leafs team posted last year against a very similar Bruins team, and this year has seen a world of improvement over those statistics.

Down 2-0 after leaving Boston, the Leafs allowed 12 goals against and only scored 4 of their own, losing the first two games played 5-1 and 7-3. Their penalty kill was at 50.0 and their power play was at 0.0.

Despite their subpar statistics, that team was able to win games 3, 5, and 6 to push the series to seven games, and very nearly took the series and moved on.

Back to the Future

Want more reasons to believe in the Leafs’ improvement? Freddie Andersen had a 6.65 goals against average and a .822 save percentage after two games last spring. He goes into tonight’s matchup considerably improved, with a GAA of 2.50 and a sv% of .937.

The Leafs defensive corps has also since been bolstered by acquiring veteran defenseman and Stanley Cup champion Jake Muzzin, and the centre depth is unmatchable thanks to the addition of 47-goal-scorer John Tavares.

For those who fear the loss of Nazem Kadri puts the series in jeopardy, remember that Kadri was suspended last year in Game 1, and a team without John Tavares at centre still managed to keep themselves in the competition without him.

Finally, this young team is finally coming into maturity. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are both riding career-high seasons and entering the playoffs healthy and confident. The whole team, many of which making their playoff debut in their rookie season in 2016-17, are older, wiser, and a lot tougher – a much more deserving opponent of the bruising Bruins.

A final reminder; take a deep breath, remember the Leafs are tied 1-1 in this series and heading back to home ice with better playoff stats than they’ve had in years, and be thankful you aren’t a Tampa Bay Lightning fan tonight.

Thanks for reading!

Stats from nhl.com/stats.