The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins are tied at one heading into game three.
If you had of told virtually anyone of the millions of Toronto Maple Leafs fans that their team would be heading home for game three after getting a split in Boston, 100% of them would have been happy.
But the reality is much different than the hypothetical.
With Nazem Kadri facing suspension, and the team getting rocked on Saturday night, the view of the team’s potential fortunes has seemingly taken a nosedive.
Doom and Gloom
Of course the outlook if Kadri is suspended for any amount of time (which he almost certainly will be) is bleaker than it was, but based on the conversations I’ve had with Leafs fans over the last couple of days, the team might as well just call it quits today and forfeit the series.
And yet, after Thursday, I had about double that amount of people tell me they were wrong when they thought a skilled but possibly un-tough team could win this series.
You can’t take one group any more seriously than the other. The whole thing is hilarious, because you wouldn’t know that this was a team that recently went to the playoffs once in a decade.
Through two games, the series has produced two vastly different games. Each team has looked great, and each team has looked terrible.
This isn’t – or shouldn’t be – particularly surprising, since both teams are pretty much evenly matched.
A split in Boston is advantage Leafs.
And even without Kadri, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the advantage of inserting William Nylander at centre (he’d be #2 on Boston, so that’s still advantage Leafs) or even Nic Petan (if they feel, as they should, that reuniting Nylander and Matthews is in everyone’s best interest).
Kadri going out means that the never-should-have-been scratched Tyler Ennis will draw into the lineup.
Ennis scores a lot in limited minutes and even though you’re not going to replace Kadri, moving Nylander to centre and inserting Ennis isn’t as much of a downgrade as most people probably think.
Another reason to think that the Leafs will get it done is Auston Matthews. The worst parts of the fan-base are already chirping about him, but the fact is he leads the Leafs with 8 shots in two games, and 12 scoring chances.
His shooting percentage is zero.
His on-ice shooting percentage is zero.
Matthews has one goal on 35 shots across the last nine playoff games, and that is just a total fluke. (all stats from naturalstattrick.com). This has nothing to do with his effort, or his ability to play in big games. It has everything to do with the fact that sometimes the puck just doesn’t go in for whatever reason. Things have a tendency to even out, and Matthews will score more goals
Since Matthews has entered the NHL, 212 games and three seasons ago, he is the NHL’s leader in goals scored per minute of 5v5 ice time. He is the fifth highest scorer (points) in the NHL on a points per minute basis during the same time.
No other player in the NHL is on both the top five lists for goals and points per minute during the last three seasons. If you weight goals more than assists, which you should, Matthews is the best even strength scorer in the NHL over a 212 game sample size.
The Leafs have essentially played the Bruins to a draw without getting anything from their best player. This is just one of those wacky hockey things that happens and is otherwise unexplainable.
If I have to pick a team to win a best of five, it’s the team with an overdue Auston Matthews.
Matthews, I repeat, has a single goal on his last 35 shots in the last two years of playoffs, even though he usually shoots roughly 15% and is, the evidence says, the best goal scorer in the NHL.
The law of averages and all things holy say that the Toronto Maple Leafs will advance to the second round on the upcoming and vastly overdue hot-streak of their best player, Auston Matthews.
Yeah, game two sucked. But jeez, keep your head. Act like you’ve been here before. As long as there are games to play, the Leafs have a chance.
Look, the Leafs might win and they might lose. But there’s no need to be so gloomy about it. The outlook is pretty good. Playoff hockey is sweet. Might as well enjoy it while you can.