Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Still Never Signing an Offer Sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs got off to a great start in the this years playoffs.

The catalyst behind the game one victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs was Mitch Marner, who scored a goal on a penalty shot, and whose penalty killing is as much of a joy to watch as any single thing in hockey right now.

Marner just finished his best campaign yet, scoring 26 goals and finishing with 94 points.

Comparisons to Sundin and Kessel are a bit rich, considering that Sundin played in the Dead Puck Era, and Kessel was a monster dragging 17 losers on his back.

Marner might have matched their totals, but he had not only John Tavares as his centre, but he had teams concerned about Auston Matthews playing on a different line.  And a Norris Trophy worthy defenseman moving pucks up the ice all day long.

Great season, but let’s slow down on comparing him to the two greatest Maple Leafs of the post expansion era.  And yeah, I did just say that Phil Kessel is a better player than prime era Sittler, MacDonald, Salming, or Clark.

But reviving Phil Kessel’s completely unfair reputation is a job for another day.  Today it’s about Mitch Marner.

Marner Is Staying

criticism of Kyle Dubas is hilarious.

Not only was he the only GM in the last year to add a #1 centre and a #1 defenseman to his roster (Tavares and Muzzin), but he smartly locked about seven quality players to cheap, short term deals to fix his salary cap problems in the future.

He’s the best candidate for GM of the Year.

Additionally, he made a brilliant trade for Nic Petan, identified the talents of Tyler Enis, and, as he said he would, signed young superstar franchise players Auston Matthews and William Nylander to contract extensions.

Both of which were highly criticized because of their for-the-future structures.  People generally are terrible at doing anything but viewing things in the eternal present, so I can forgive this.  But it doesn’t change the fact that both deals will be extremely team friendly anywhere from one to three years from now.

So, like criticisms of Phil Kessel, criticisms of the Leafs young GM are pretty terrible and not rooted in things like “empirical evidence,” or “reality.”

Worst thing you can say about Mr. Dubas is that he erred on his back-up goalie choice, and even though it didn’t work out, the thinking behind the move checks out.  Basically, if you have to choose between a 35 year old career back-up and the 25 year old coming of a season in which he was the best goalie in the AHL, it’s a no brainer.

So back to Marner.

The GM said he’d sign him, and we have no reason to doubt him. End of story.

Offsheets don’t happen in the NHL, and Mitch Marner wouldn’t sign one anyways.  The Leafs will give him a fair contract – which is anything around nine million or less – and that will be that.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have structured their team in order to pay their top end guys, and cycle through the rest of their team as needed.  It’s a “studs and duds” set-up, and they hope to be able to exploit the NHL’s salary cap parity by doing this.

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As for Marner and his great play, he can’t really drive his price up. He is a hometown kid with 94 points.  His price is already as high as it can be.  You can’t pay him more than Tavares, and you can’t pay him more than Matthews.

He’s a winger, not a centre, so there’s a limit.  He is an amazing player, but no one who isn’t related to him thinks he’s anything close to an Auston Matthews level player.  There’s nothing wrong with that either – literally two other people on earth are.

Nikita Kucherov has a contract that starts next season which pays him $9.5 million.  Marner might be able to argue that the cap is going up and that he deserves $10, but even then, getting paid more than Kucherov is kind of stupid.

Marner is a great player.  Kucherov – at least today – is better.

I have no doubt the Toronto Maple Leafs are prepared to give Marner Kucherov money.  But he can win the Conn Smythe trophy, he’s not pricing himself out of town, and he’s not getting more expensive.

The Leafs have three years of data and are the exact opposite of the kind of people who would look at one springs worth of results and overreact.  By this same token, Marner could disappear for the rest of the playoffs and not hurt his salary either.

It’s all hype. Marner will sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He won’t price himself out of town, and no one will offer sheet him.

Next.