Toronto Maple Leafs: Reasons for Playoff Optimism

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MONTREAL, QC – APRIL 06: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates a second period goal with teammates on the bench against the Montreal Canadiens during the NHL game at the Bell Centre on April 6, 2019 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the Stanley Cup playoffs having won only four of their last fourteen games, but a closer look shows that there are many reasons to be optimistic.

The Leafs have not won a Stanley Cup since 1967, nor have they made it past the first round of the playoffs in 17 years.

Predictably, pessimism has grown among a fan base that has come to expect the worst.

However, the franchise has turned over a new leaf after extensive personnel changes from top to bottom and the growth of a talented core. Here are some crucial reasons why this year’s team should inspire optimism heading into the playoffs.

TORONTO, ON – APRIL 04: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs takes the ice against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Scotiabank Arena on April 4, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#1 – The Leafs are Pacing the NHL in Shots For

Over their 14-game slide, the Leafs shot the puck at a higher rate (38.6 shots/game) than any other team in the NHL by a wide margin. They scored on only 7.8 percent of those shots, which is uncharacteristically low for them.

A new wave of statistical analysis has shown that shooting percentages tend to fluctuate naturally over the course of a season similarly to batting averages in baseball.

If the Leafs shot at their season average of 10.4% over those 14 games, they would have scored an extra goal per game. It appears that the Leafs have suffered more from bad puck luck than from poor play as of late.

#2 – Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott are Healthy in Time for Playoff Action

The Toronto Maple Leafs poor defensive play was an important factor in their struggles towards the end of the regular season. Losing Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott to injuries was a tough blow for a blue-line that was already thin, to begin with.

Fill-in performances from Martin Marincin and Justin Holl left something to be desired and the Leafs were unable to move the puck up the ice with the same speed as earlier in the season.

Luckily, Gardiner and Dermott both recently returned from injury and appear healthy for the start of playoffs. With over 100 points between them over the past two seasons, the return of two defensive staples with offensive instincts will provide a huge boost.

TORONTO, ON – MARCH 23: Frederik Andersen #31 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates to the net at the start of the second period against the New York Rangers at the Scotiabank Arena on March 23, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#3 – Frederik Andersen Will Bounce Back to Form

Frederik Andersen’s .890 save percentage in March came as somewhat of a surprise from the affectionately dubbed “Steady Freddie.” However, Andersen has been a model of consistency throughout his career and should be able to regain his form from earlier this season. In fact, a few strong performances In April suggest that he could be finding his game already.

In each of Andersen’s last 4 seasons he has finished with a save percentage between .917 and .919. His cool demeanour and history in the league suggest that he is not at risk of suffering from a prolonged slump or damaged confidence.

#4 – William Nylander is Back to His Old Self

Nylander’s public contract dispute with the team forced him to miss the first two months of this year’s season. When he did come back, he struggled for an extended time to catch up to the pace of the game. Since being reunited on a line with Auston Matthews, Nylander has played with much more energy.

Nylander’s improvement has shown on the stat sheet with 10 points and 47 shots in the last 13 games of the regular season. More than that though, Nylander’s often referenced “compete level” has been a strong suit of late and should translate to a better playoff showing for him than last year.

TORONTO, ON – FEBRUARY 2: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on February 2, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#5 – Auston Matthews is Set to Score in Bunches

Auston Matthews was noticeably dominant to close out the season, however, his goal totals didn’t reflect the play seen from him on the ice. At times, shot volumes can serve as a better gauge for how well a goal scorer is playing.

At the end of the regular season, Matthews shot the puck at a higher rate than any other stretch in his career. He fired 91 shots on net in the final 20 games of the season (4.6 shots/game) and scored on only 7.7% of those shots.

In his career, Matthews scores on 15.4% of his shots, suggesting that his scoring rate could see a big jump based on how often he is shooting the puck. Matthews can only defy the law of averages for so long, goals will come if he continues to play as well as he has recently.

#6 – The Leafs are Consistently Outshooting their Opponents

Over the past month, the Leafs have had an average shot differential of +5.0/game. Only one team in the NHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, had a better shot differential in this year’s regular season. After ranking 23rd in shot differential a year ago, this comes as a major improvement.

If the Leafs are able to rekindle their scoring touch and continue to carry the play by outshooting their opponents, they could be a force in this year’s playoffs.

DETROIT, MI – FEBRUARY 01: Former Detroit Red Wings head coach and current Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock watches the No. 4 jersey retirement ceremony of former Red Wing Red Kelly (not pictured) prior to an NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena on February 1, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#7 – Mike Babcock Brings Stability in Tough Stretches

Head coach Mike Babcock has received criticism recently for his personnel usage including line combinations, defensive pairings, and the Leafs underperforming power-play.

While there are valid arguments for why players like Auston Matthews and Travis Dermott should be receiving more ice time than they do, the head coach’s role involves far more than player deployment.

Babcock’s role as a proven winner and positive communicator and mentor is valuable to the Leafs. His even-keeled approach whether winning or losing is the calming influence that this young Leafs team needs playing in a hockey-crazed city.

Babcock continues to be the right man for the job.

#8 – The Leafs Losing Streak had No impact on the Standings

While the team’s losing skid was a disappointing end to an otherwise successful season, the consequences were minimal. The Leafs have been secured in an inevitable playoff matchup with the Boston Bruins for over a month.

Not only does that take some of the pain of losing away, but it could also serve as a reasonable explanation for why the team began losing in the first place. With so little to play for, the Leafs likely found it difficult to match the focus and competitiveness of teams fighting for playoff spots and better positioning.

As the Leafs head into the playoffs for the third season in a row, it is important to remember that this team did not live through the years of mediocrity and losing that preceded them, and for that reason, they are not destined to repeat their mistakes, nor are they soured by their defeat.

Next. Best Line Combinations for the Playoffs. dark

With a new outlook and a bright future, this Leafs team deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. There are certainly reasons for optimism in Leaf land.

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