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Toronto Maple Leafs: Reasons for Playoff Optimism

By Jarrett Noakes

GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Mike Babcock of the Toronto Maple Leafs shakes hands with referee Brad Watson #23 and linesman Lonnie Cameron #74 during a game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on February 16, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Mike Babcock of the Toronto Maple Leafs shakes hands with referee Brad Watson #23 and linesman Lonnie Cameron #74 during a game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on February 16, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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Toronto Maple Leafs
TORONTO, ON – FEBRUARY 2: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on February 2, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#5 – Auston Matthews is Set to Score in Bunches

Auston Matthews was noticeably dominant to close out the season, however, his goal totals didn’t reflect the play seen from him on the ice. At times, shot volumes can serve as a better gauge for how well a goal scorer is playing.

At the end of the regular season, Matthews shot the puck at a higher rate than any other stretch in his career. He fired 91 shots on net in the final 20 games of the season (4.6 shots/game) and scored on only 7.7% of those shots.

In his career, Matthews scores on 15.4% of his shots, suggesting that his scoring rate could see a big jump based on how often he is shooting the puck. Matthews can only defy the law of averages for so long, goals will come if he continues to play as well as he has recently.

#6 – The Leafs are Consistently Outshooting their Opponents

Over the past month, the Leafs have had an average shot differential of +5.0/game. Only one team in the NHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, had a better shot differential in this year’s regular season. After ranking 23rd in shot differential a year ago, this comes as a major improvement.

If the Leafs are able to rekindle their scoring touch and continue to carry the play by outshooting their opponents, they could be a force in this year’s playoffs.

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