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Toronto Maple Leafs: Reasons for Playoff Optimism

By Jarrett Noakes

GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Mike Babcock of the Toronto Maple Leafs shakes hands with referee Brad Watson #23 and linesman Lonnie Cameron #74 during a game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on February 16, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Mike Babcock of the Toronto Maple Leafs shakes hands with referee Brad Watson #23 and linesman Lonnie Cameron #74 during a game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on February 16, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – APRIL 04: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs takes the ice against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Scotiabank Arena on April 4, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – APRIL 04: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs takes the ice against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Scotiabank Arena on April 4, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /

#1 – The Leafs are Pacing the NHL in Shots For

Over their 14-game slide, the Leafs shot the puck at a higher rate (38.6 shots/game) than any other team in the NHL by a wide margin. They scored on only 7.8 percent of those shots, which is uncharacteristically low for them.

A new wave of statistical analysis has shown that shooting percentages tend to fluctuate naturally over the course of a season similarly to batting averages in baseball.

If the Leafs shot at their season average of 10.4% over those 14 games, they would have scored an extra goal per game. It appears that the Leafs have suffered more from bad puck luck than from poor play as of late.

#2 – Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott are Healthy in Time for Playoff Action

The Toronto Maple Leafs poor defensive play was an important factor in their struggles towards the end of the regular season. Losing Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott to injuries was a tough blow for a blue-line that was already thin, to begin with.

Fill-in performances from Martin Marincin and Justin Holl left something to be desired and the Leafs were unable to move the puck up the ice with the same speed as earlier in the season.

Luckily, Gardiner and Dermott both recently returned from injury and appear healthy for the start of playoffs. With over 100 points between them over the past two seasons, the return of two defensive staples with offensive instincts will provide a huge boost.

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