Toronto Maple Leafs: Optimal Postseason Lineup Preview

How will the Toronto Maple Leafs look when they hit the ice for their hotly-anticipated postseason rematch with the Boston Bruins?

Yesterday’s practice, the first of the official playoff period, hinted towards just that.

Game One will be the first time in precisely 20 games that the Maple Leafs will be able to ice their entire lineup. With a combination of holdouts, injuries, and load management stripping valuable contributors of service time at various points on the year, Toronto played roughly half of the regular season in a shorthanded capacity, lacking the requisite time needed to build chemistry and momentum at full-strength.

But none of that matters in the arena of the playoffs.

The Maple Leafs are finally beginning to regain their health, and following nearly an entire season of being withheld from tinkering with his team’s full breadth of talent, Mike Babcock can finally send out what he believes to be Toronto’s most optimal construction.

Based off what hit the ice at Monday’s practice, it looks a little something like this.

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/1115271878254452737

Let’s dive into some of the finer points here.

Matthews & Nylander Separated

By far the most head-scratching reveal of Babcock’s projected playoff lineup is his decision to disperse Auston Matthews and William Nylander on separate lines. The pair have played together for the majority of their respective NHL careers thus far, albeit with brief blips of seclusion, forming a chemistry that is arguably unmatched by any other member of the Leafs’ roster.

The Matthews-Nylander combination is a bonafide juggernaut at even strength. In 266:16 of shared 5v5 ice time this season, the two players have combined for a sterling 53.95% CF/60, per Natural Stattrick, evolving into one of the most lethal lines in hockey when joining forces with Andreas Johnsson, as well.

Why, then, would Babcock opt to disrupt what is a clearly effective connection, and right when the games begin to matter, too? His explanation does little to offer up an answer.

Perhaps there’s a master plan at work here. Perhaps Babcock’s decision to filter talent all throughout his roster looks genius in hindsight, and manages to unlock an unforeseen facet of the Maple Leafs’ potential. If not, though, adaption will be required.

The veteran coach’s willingness, or lack thereof, to alter his lineup on the fly may quickly emerge as the series’ X-Factor.

Ennis Scratched

Opting to scratch Tyler Ennis is yet another left-field development from the mind of Babcock.

Given the nature of his contract and how low expectations were entering the pre-season, Ennis has been a valued contributor for the Maple Leafs for most of the year, finishing with 12 goals and 6 assists for 18 points in 51 games. That point total may indeed seem a tad low upon first glance, but Ennis has nevertheless managed to earn those numbers despite spending nearly 300 total minutes of even strength ice time alongside the offensive black hole that is Frederik Gauthier.

That is a daunting task or any player, let alone a depth winger hoping for a redemption campaign.

Together, the pair combined for a lacklustre 45.87% CF/60, limiting the ability for the Maple Leafs’ to ice a fourth line capable of driving possession at the bottom of the lineup. Away from Ennis, however, Gauthier’s number dips to a dreadful 43.14%.  In the same circumstances, Ennis’ shoots up to a dazzling 61.16%.

Alas, it is Ennis who appears set to watch Game One from the press box above.

In a perfect world, Babcock wouldn’t put himself in a position where he’s forced to choose only one of Ennis or Trevor Moore with whom to fill out the wings of his fourth line. Both players, through their respective positional versatility and offensive potential, have seemingly proved themselves worthy of a postseason roster spot.

Gauthier, size notwithstanding, has not.

Then again, how could the Maple Leafs possibly justify scratching a fourth line centre who is fresh off setting a new career-high with 14 points in 70 games?

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of NaturalStattrick.com