A Toronto Maple Leafs Fan Guide to the NHL Draft Lottery
Thankfully, the days of anxiously watching the draft lottery as a Toronto Maple Leafs fan are over.
No longer do you have to sit agonizingly on the edge of your seat as Bill Daly overturns cards, revealing one by one what teams did not have the ping pong balls in their favour that evening. It’s a tedious exercise and it’s great now that the Toronto Maple Leafs are no longer a part of it.
As Leafs fans, we know both the highs and the lows of the lottery. In 2015, Toronto was excruciatingly close from landing the first overall selection and Connor McDavid.
On the flip side, we all felt the elation of seeing the final card flip to reveal the Maple Leafs logo, handing Toronto Auston Matthews. At the very least, I know I was pretty ecstatic:
This year, and for the foreseeable future, the Toronto Maple Leafs do not have any direct stake in the lottery. So, as a Leafs fan, what should you be watching for? Who should you be cheering to win? And what’s the worst case scenario? Don’t fret: here is a definitive ranking of the possible lottery winners, from best to worst, from a Toronto perspective.
15. Colorado via Ottawa (18.5% chance at first overall)
This one was obvious. Although this would only make the Colorado Avalanche better going into the future and a legitimate Cup contender during the Leafs years of contention, it would be too perfect to see the Ottawa Senators lose out on the first overall pick. There are few things as fun as a fan as seeing your rivals make terrible, terrible decisions. While the Senators fan base may not deserve this outcome, it is easily the most enjoyable for Leafs Nation and just about every other fan base.
14. Los Angeles (13.5% chance at first overall)
The Kings are still a fair distance from truly contending for any sort of playoff success. While they have an intriguing base of prospects including two former Leafs picks in Carl Grundstrom and Sean Durzi, Los Angeles still has a boatload of ageing players taking up lots of space. This is a team that needs a significant overhaul. Combined with the fact they are in the Western Conference and have a very low probability of facing the Leafs in a playoff series, a Los Angeles win is among the most favourable outcomes for Toronto.
13. Minnesota (3% chance at first overall)
Although being just outside the playoffs, the Minnesota Wild are a team that feels a long ways from being a contender. Questionable decisions this season, such as trading Nino Niederreiter for Victor Rask, as well as two anchor contracts in Zach Parise and Ryan Suter make the Wild a team that are a ways away from being a threat. While a player like Jack Hughes would help Minnesota immediately and potentially push them back into a wild-card spot, the Wild have a fairly mediocre prospect pool. Even with a lottery win, the Wild seem destined for mediocrity once again.
12. Anaheim (6% chance at first overall)
With Randy Carlyle in the rearview mirror, things are starting to look up for the Ducks after a tire fire of a season. John Gibson showed his quality and prospects such as Sam Steel, Troy Terry, and Maxime Comtois made their NHL debuts. Adding Jack Hughes to their mix of forwards, both current and future, is very intriguing. That being said, they still have a couple of atrocious contracts and management is still somewhat of a question mark. Landing Hughes would accelerate Anaheim’s route back to success, but the Leafs do not have to be too wary of a Ducks victory in the lottery.
11. Arizona (1.5% chance at first overall)
The best team to miss the playoffs in the Western Conference, the Arizona Coyotes were victim to some dreadful injury luck this season. While they were in the hunt until the final few days of the regular season, the Coyotes lack a true superstar that can propel them to the next level. They may hope that fifth overall pick Barrett Hayton can reach that level in the coming years, or that Clayton Keller takes another step, but adding Jack Hughes would be massive to the Coyotes future success.
10. Chicago (2.5% chance at first overall)
While the Blackhawks have fallen off from the days of their modern dynasty, Chicago seems poised to bounce back into contention in the near future. Jonathan Toews had a resurgence, Patrick Kane continues to produce, and Alex DeBrincat had a breakout campaign. Factor in an absolutely stacked prospect pool on the blueline featuring the likes of Adam Boqvist, Henri Jokiharju, Nicolas Beaudin, and Ian Mitchell, a Chicago victory at the draft lottery could propel them back into the conversation as one of the top teams in the West in just a couple of seasons.
9. Vancouver (5% chance at first overall)
Boasting Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Jack Hughes up front would be absolutely disgusting. That being said, a uniting of the two eldest Hughes brothers in Quinn and Jack would be a fantastic story and would make for some incredible hockey to watch. While the Canucks would become a terrifying team heading into the future, the human element of a new brother tandem in Vancouver makes me a little more comfortable with a Canucks victory in the draft lottery.
8. New Jersey (11.5% chance at first overall)
Any Eastern Conference team winning the lottery is worse for the Toronto Maple Leafs for obvious reasons. Hughes landing in the West simply means facing him less often. Of the potential Eastern destinations, New Jersey would be among the more favorable. Outside of Nico Hischier and Taylor Hall, the Devils lack true game breakers offensively. Add in Hall’s contract uncertainty past the 2019-20 season, and Jack Hughes becoming a New Jersey Devil would be the easiest pill to swallow if he does land in on an Eastern Conference team.
7. New York (7.5% chance at first overall)
The New York Rangers have executed a very solid rebuild without the benefit of a top selection. The likes of Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, and an emerging Alexandar Georgiev result in a solid core going forward, but adding a talent like Jack Hughes would make the Rangers a dangerous team in the near future. Add in the breakout year Mika Zibanejad had, as well as the potential at landing Artemi Panarin or Erik Karlsson, and New York could be on the fast track to success.
6. Philadelphia (3.5% chance at first overall)
The final Metropolitan team in the lottery, the Flyers have an interesting mix of “win now” players and emerging talent. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek aren’t getting any younger, while Ivan Provorov and Carter Hart are only getting better. Then there’s the wild card that is Nolan Patrick, who has trailed behind Nico Hischier in terms of production to date. Winning another lottery and landing another top three talent would be a very scary outcome for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
5. Edmonton (6.5% chance at first overall)
Who wants to see Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jack Hughes all be wasted on the same team? While the pure talent those four possess would be some of the best hockey to watch in the NHL, Oilers management would still find a way to mess it up. Edmonton ranking this high is less about the on-ice product as it is the fact the Oilers would be winning another lottery. This management team being rewarded for their ineptitude would be among the most disappointing outcomes at this year’s lottery.
4. Detroit (9.5% chance at first overall)
We’ve finally reached the Atlantic division. A team in the Leafs division winning the lottery would obviously be among the very worst outcomes from a Toronto perspective, as they would have to face Jack Hughes more often and content with his team for a playoff spot directly.
Of the four candidates out of the Atlantic, the Red Wings are the least worrisome. They are still multiple years away from being any kind of threat to Toronto in the standings, though adding Jack Hughes would accelerate the process. A future trio of Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina, and Hughes would be nasty to deal with. Of the four Atlantic possibilities, however, it is the least worrying.
3. Florida (2% chance at first overall)
It would be a rough couple of days for the rest of the Atlantic Division if the Florida Panthers manage to add to the addition of Joel Quenneville with the first overall pick.
With a young core of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad, and the progressing Henrik Borgstrom, the Panthers are already on the track towards future success. Adding Jack Hughes would only amplify their potential threat towards the top of the Atlantic Division. Question marks still lie in goal, which is why they rank behind both Montreal and Buffalo in the “worst case scenarios” for the Leafs at the lottery.
2. Montreal (1% chance at first overall)
Do I really need to elaborate on this one? Any scenario where the Habs are able to add a top talent is less than ideal for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Montreal’s future is already bright with the likes of Ryan Poehling, Nick Suzuki, and Josh Brook in the pipeline. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin, and Victor Mete make up a strong young contingent in the NHL, plus Carey Price can give any team the ability to win.
The Canadiens are already set up to be successful in a couple of years but lack a game-breaking skater. Jack Hughes would bring that element and immediately enhance Montreal’s shot at jumping into the playoffs once again.
1. Buffalo (8.5% chance at first overall)
Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, AND Jack Hughes? Unfortunately for Leafs fans, the Sabres catastrophic second half means there’s a legitimate chance Hughes joins Eichel and Dahlin on the same team next season.
Long term, Buffalo is set. They have a top tier centre in Eichel, a future Norris contender in Dahlin, and a solid core of prospects including Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen in goal and Alex Nylander, Tage Thompson, and Casey Mittelstadt up front.
Next. Top 5 Leafs Specific Playoff Predictions. dark
Even without another top-ten pick, the Sabres were set to contend with the top of the Atlantic in short order. Add in another high selection, plus the potential of adding Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, or Bowen Byram through the lottery, and Buffalo could be a serious challenger far sooner than the Toronto Maple Leafs would hope to see.