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Toronto Maple Leafs: 5 Playoff Predictions For Round 1 vs. Boston

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 7: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Nashville Predators during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on January 7, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 7: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Nashville Predators during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on January 7, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 27: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs competes in the Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay during 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition at Amalie Arena on January 27, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 27: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs competes in the Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay during 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition at Amalie Arena on January 27, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Auston Matthews Destroys the Bruins

Last year the Bruins held Auston Matthews to one goal in seven games.

Matthews wasn’t just held to a single goal, he only had two points.  This lead to a lot of terrible analysis like “Matthews played poorly,” and “Matthews didn’t show up,” etc.

99.999% of “analysis” ends up just being based on point totals, and it is generally impossible to convince people that a player known for scoring that didn’t score played well.

I’ll try again though.

Despite playing most of his minutes against Boston’s top defensive pairing of Zdeno Chara and Charlie MacAvoy, and frequently facing the top line in the NHL, Matthews still ended up over 50% possession for the series.

Despite taking on all of Boston’s best players whenever it was possible for them to get their preferred matchup, Matthews still had positive differentials in shot-attempts, shots, and scoring chances.

But when he was on the ice, the Leafs were outscored 4-8. Matthews’ on-ice shooting percentage last playoffs was 6% compared to the 10% that it usually is.  His goalie had a save percentage of 85% when Matthews was on the ice.  (All stats for this article naturalstattrick.com).

And that explains the bad stats.  Normally, Matthews can expect an on-ice shooting percentage in the 9-12 percent range, and a save-percentage of around 91%.

This year, the Bruins won’t get so lucky.  Matthews will be aware of his unfair reputation as a playoff non-performer, score about two goals per game and single-handedly beat the Bruins.

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