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Toronto Maple Leafs: The Path to the Stanley Cup

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 14: Kasperi Kapanen #24 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his goal with teammates Auston Matthews #34, Andreas Johnsson #18, and Nikita Zaitsev #22 against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on January 14, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 14: Kasperi Kapanen #24 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his goal with teammates Auston Matthews #34, Andreas Johnsson #18, and Nikita Zaitsev #22 against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on January 14, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs begin the Playoffs on Thursday vs the Boston Bruins.

It will be the second straight year that the Toronto Maple Leafs have opened the playoffs against the Bruins.

The NHL’s playoff formatting is extremely stupid – I don’t think there’s a person alive who disagrees.

The Leafs and Bruins are arguably the second and third best teams in the NHL after the Tampa Bay Lightning.  The fact that one of the best teams in the NHL is guaranteed to be eliminated in the first round is crazy.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and the Islanders are all inferior to the Leafs, Bruins and Lightning, and yet, two of those objectively worse teams are 100% guaranteed to see the second round.

It’s idiotic.

But it’s not big deal for the Toronto Maple Leafs who are going to win the Stanley Cup regardless.

Leafs will Win

One thing I know, but which I don’t expect many people to care about it, is the way in which the standings do not entirely reflect reality.

The Leafs didn’t dress their optimal lineup for a full game all year, but with some luck, they’ll enter the playoffs more or less able to do so.

Their record in one goal games since January is 6-10 (roughly, I tried to account for empty netters) which is something that is basically random. Last year they had a really strong record in one goal games and that explains the drop in this years point totals, despite icing an objectively stronger team.

Finally, the Toronto Maple Leafs power-play has some of the best stats in the NHL in everything except goal scored, which are low because their shooting percentage – which is a function of luck – is 19th in the NHL. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Tampa is #1 in PP shooting percentage, and the Bruins are #2.

The Leafs can finish as high as 5th in the NHL standings (this article was written ahead of Saturday’s games) and they did it while having a bad record in one goal games, never icing their best lineup, and having a low PP shooting percentage.

If they were lucky in those three things, instead of unlucky, they’d likely be the #2 team overall, and they’d likely be a lot of closer to the Lightning.

Since the reality is that their point totals are suppressed by bad luck, and that they have the deepest centres in the NHL, the statistical best goalie and defenseman, and a top five player at every position, I think they will do a lot better than people think.

What team can match Matthews-Tavares-Kadri-Marner-Nylander-Johnsson-Kapanen-Rielly-Muzzin-Gardiner-Andersen?  It is by far the best ten player combo in the league.

The path to the Cup is as follows:  Shock the world by easily disposing of the Bruins in five games.  Beat the Lightning in six.  Then down the Penguins in five, and make it to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in over 50 years.

Who will they play?  I don’t know! What am I , a psychic?  I do know it won’t be the Jets!

Next. Leafs Best Line Combos. dark

The Toronto Maple Leafs team is the best it’s ever been.  They will this years Stanley Cup.  That is my prediction.

And just for the record, I mean this 100% in earnest.  The Leafs have the best roster and they’ve gotten unlucky a lot this year. They are going to surprise everyone, but me (because I expect it).  The fact is, the negativity surrounding this team is pure garbage – they’ve got their best ever roster, so enjoy it.

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