The Toronto Maple Leafs will be playing the Boston Bruins in the first round of the NHL playoffs beginning next Thursday.
For many, it’s a nightmare match-up because the Toronto Maple Leafs have recently lost in the most horrific of ways to these same Bruins.
In reality, there’s almost no one left from the 2013 team, and last year was a total fluke.
The Leafs blew a third period lead in a league where leading after two periods is a near guarantee of victory. They made it to game seven against a heavily favored team, and Nazem Kadri was suspended for three games.
Even though the loss stung, the reality is that the Leafs played an more experienced and superior team and almost pulled it off.
This year, the Bruins are another year older, while the Leafs added Jake Muzzin and John Tavares. The Leafs record is deceiving though, because even though they didn’t have as many point as last year, this year’s team is better at 5v5 play, and has a more talented roster.
The Leafs had a really good record last year in one goal games – something which is a bit of a toss up – and so that inflated their totals. This year, they weren’t so lucky in close games and that, for the most part, explains why they have a better team but less points this year. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
So how do the Leafs beat the Bruins?
It’s easy.
They play their game. The Toronto Maple Leafs are close to the Bruins in every team statistical even-strength category, but the Bruins are better statistically, just slightly.
The one area where the Leafs dominate is their ability to score.
The Leafs have 50 more 5v5 goals than the Bruins do. Therefore, if they play their game, and not Boston’s, they’ll win.
The Leafs need to skate the Bruins into the ground, capitalize on their speed and outscore them.
If they buy into the myth that the playoffs require you to tighten up your game and they try to play on Boston’s terms, they’ll lose.
Speed is the key.
That and staying out of the box. That also is the Leafs game. The Leafs took three minor penalties more than the Blue Jackets, and are the second least penalized team in the NHL. The Bruins are the 11th most penalized team, and could sneak into the top ten if they take a few penalties in their last regular season game.
The key to success for the Toronto Maple Leafs is simply to play their game. Trade chances, score goals, trust Andersen, and stay out of the box. If they do that, they are unbeatable. They can really grind Boston down over four to seven games by icing the league’s best combination of centres.
Younger, faster, more talented and deeper.
I like the Leafs in five.