Toronto Maple Leafs: Best Line Combinations for the Playoffs

Leafs Optimal Lines

Disregarding whether or not it will actually happen, or even has a chance to, here are what I think the Leafs lines should be entering the playoffs. I don’t think anyone will have any problems with the first two lines here, but this is Leafs Nation, so you never know!

Line 1: Hyman – Tavares – Marner

This is a no-brainer.  This line has been together for most of the year, all three players have hit career high’s in points and goals, and I think it’s one of the best lines in hockey.

Line 2:  Johnsson – Matthews – Nylander

This line is every bit as good as the first line, and possibly better.  No one in the NHL scores more per minute of 5v5 ice time than Matthews, and he and Nylander have been nearly unstoppable since being paired together again.  Statistically, this is the highest scoring line in the NHL on a 5v5 per minute basis.

Nylander is among the best zone-transition players in the NHL (maybe the best) and he is the perfect compliment to Matthews.  Johnsson here is just a bonus. He’s got 20 goals and if he keeps improving could eventually give the Leafs a super line like the Bruins have.

Those are the lines the Leafs should use, and in all probability, the ones they will lose.  It’s the best 1-2 combo in hockey in my opinion.

Line 3: Ennis – Kadri – Kapanen

This is the first lineup decision I’d make that Babcock probably won’t.  The fact is, however ,that Ennis is a superior player to either Brown or Marleau at this point and he should get the call.

Ennis’ points per 60 5v5 scoring is a solid 1.89 which is higher than Hyman, Kadri, Nylander, Marleau and Brown.  He should definitely be playing a top nine role by now.

Kadri is far and away the best third line centre in the NHL and if all three of the Leafs centres are healthy and playing well, other teams can only win with a hot goalie or on special teams.

As for Marleau, his 5v5 scoring rate is worse than that of Par Lindholm.

And yes I double checked that and it’s actually true. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Line 4:  Moore- Petan- Brown

Marleau for nine minutes  a night against fourth line competition is probably still good, but I’d rather have Nic Petan than the 38 year old Marleau.  I supposed there’s no chance the Leafs will dress Petan over Marleau, but I can dream!

I get the feeling that Brown is not a very popular player, but he’s way above average for a fourth liner, and I like his ability to grind, kill penalties and chip in the odd goal.  The only problem with Brown is that Babcock plays him too high in the lineup.  On the fourth line, I am a fan.

As for Trevor Moore, he’s been effective when he’s played and along with Petan and Ennis, I think he’s earned his shot.

The odds of us actually seeing this line are pretty much nil.  Marleau isn’t going to be healthy scratched, and neither is Gauthier, but regardless, I think this is the best way to organize the forwards.

Defense

On Defense, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of options because Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Jake Gardiner are legitimate top pairing players.  Before Gardiner went down, Babcock set it up so one of the Big Three would always be on the ice, but since Travis Dermott pretty much dominates in third pairing minutes, it would be pointless and wasteful to have one of the Big Three on the third pairing.

Pairing One:  Rielly and Gardiner

Morgain Rielly is a superstar now and needs no introduction. Objectively speaking, he should win the Norris Trophy.  Jake Gardiner is a great player too, and in the time that both players have been on the team, they’ve combined for about a year’s worth of minutes and put up great numbers.

This should be the Leafs top pairing.  Gardiner is so much better than Ron Hainsey it’s not even funny.  The Leafs simply cannot enter the playoffs with both of Zaitsev and Hainsey in their top four.

Pairing Two: Muzzin and Zaitsev

I’m not a huge Nikita Zaitsev fan, but I think he’s better than Ron Hainsey.  Plus, he and Muzzin have put up a 51% CF rating so far, which is good, and also better than what Zaitsev/Gardiner put up.  Don’t fix what ain’t broke.

Pairing Three:  Calle Rosen and Travis Dermott

Look, I know that Babcock won’t trust a rookie defenseman in the playoffs over Ron Hainsey.  I also know that there is almost no chance that Hainsey sits.  Doesn’t matter.  This isn’t about what will happen, it’s about what should happen.

Dermott and Rosen will easily be above 50% and provide the Toronto Maple Leafs with solid third pairing minutes.

That’s it.  That’s the lineup the Leafs should use. I’ll try later to do a special teams article, but this is how I think the Leafs, if healthy, should set their lines.

Frankly, I think the Leafs are somehow underrated due to the fact that we talk about them constantly and are so used to their lineup by now.  But realistically, they have top five players at every position, they have the deepest centre depth, they have a realistic Hart Finalist in Tavares, a possible Vezina goalie and a should-be Norris winner.

They have the best 5v5 team in hockey, and if they get decent goaltending and don’t get completely robbed by a hot goalie on their opponent’s team, the only thing that can beat them is special teams.

Sure, they haven’t had the best power play this year, but the fact is, power-play have a ton of variance and past performance doesn’t really predict future performance any better than just looking at the talent level and realizing that it’s insane.