Toronto Maple Leafs: 5v5 Play Is the Key To Playoff Success

It’s a day that ends in a Y, so Toronto Maple Leafs Nation is filled with anxiety, doubt and pessimism over their favorite team.

The Toronto Maple Leafs recent run of terrible goaltending and defense does not exactly inspire confidence, but don’t forget that they are missing two of their top-four defensemen.

Additionally, people have a very strong tendency towards recency bias, which means that they think that whatever is happening now is what will happen forever.  Basically, they weigh the present more heavily than it deserves when they try to predict the future.

While recency bias will usually always steer you wrong, when you’re evaluating a team that is injured, it’s going to be even worse.

Assuming the Toronto Maple Leafs get back Travis Dermott and Jake Gardiner in time for the playoffs, there are some real reasons for optimism.

The main one: their 5v5 play, where about 90% of the game occurs.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ 5v5

Using stats from our friends at naturalstattrick.com, we learned the following information:

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a score-adjusted Corsi rating of 53%.  Corsi is just shot-attempt differential, and it’s used as a proxy for puck possession.

The Leafs are 7th in the NHL, when the game is within one goal, in this stat.  The Bruins are slightly ahead of the Leafs, but only by three-quarters of a percentage point.

Overall, (i,e not score-adjusted) the Leafs are 9th in the NHL in puck possession.

More importantly, the Toronto Maple Leafs lead the NHL in 5v5 scoring with 197 goals.  Despite their reputation for playing poor defensively, the Leafs are third in the NHL in 5v5 goal scoring differential.

Boston has racked up the OT points, and Tampa is getting it done with a crazy-good power-play shooting percentage, but going forward, the Leafs 5v5 play levels the playing the field a lot.

Boston can’t very well make use of the shoot-out or loser points in the playoffs, and players have no control over their shooting percentage, so TB’s PP could go cold at any time.

John Tavares is second in the NHL in 5v5 p/60, Auston Matthews is third, and Mitch Marner is seventh.  Since being re-united with Matthews, Nylander is putting up points at this same elite rate.

The Leafs have the best line in hockey.

A lot of people assume the best line in hockey is the first Boston line, but statistically, it’s Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Andreas Johnsson.

The fact that the Leafs second line consists of Tavares, Hyman and Marner and also happens to be the second best line in the NHL, is pure insanity.  I can’t wait to see another coach try and line match the Leafs in the playoffs.

Good luck with that.

I don’t care what the Leafs record is recently.  I care that when basically healthy they have played at a rate every bit as good as their competitors.

I care that they are the best 5v5 team in the NHL, and that they have two of the top four lines in the NHL.  Including the best one.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will run down the Bruins in five games.