Toronto Maple Leafs: This Is Why You Don’t Trade Young Forwards for Checking Defenseman

William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs waited until December to finalize a contract.

After that, it took the Toronto Maple Leafs former first round draft pick about a month to find his game.

And even when he did, he was snakebitten.  Nylander played another month of great hockey, but his shooting percentage was crazy-low, as was the shooting-percentage of everyone he skated with.

This coincided with twin 12 games streaks by Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri where each player scored but  a single goal – something unlikely to ever happen to either of them again, even if they play till their 50.

Nylander Is Back!

People try to offer subtle analysis that goes beyond point totals, but the fact is, most people don’t care. Most people look at Nylander’s 5 goals in 48 games and assume he is playing poorly.

They’ll tell you to watch the games if you bring up any of his other stats, but the fact is, if you do, you see a player that constantly carries the puck through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone with confidence.  A player who creates chances almost every time he’s on the ice.

Nylander was the Leafs best player during the month of February, but playing mostly with Marleau and Brown (as a centre when Kadri went down) didn’t do much for his point totals.

But then, in early March, Kasperi Kapanen went down with a concussion and William Nylander was reunited with Auston Matthews.

Since then, Nylander has nine points in nine games.

In total, Nylander’s 56% possession rating leads the Toronto Maple Leafs and is makes him worth every dollar he is paid.  You can’t allow goals when you always have the puck, and Nylander is an elite play driver.

Nylander is an elite play driver because of his ability to enter and exit zones with the puck, something that compliments Matthews skill-set perfectly.  That is why, since being reunited, they have possessed the puck for 60% of the time, which is absolutely crazy.

It’s obviously no coincidence that Matthews has five goals in nine games since the reunion.

Even more impressive, all five of those goals are at even-strength.

You can complain about Nylander’s lack of scoring, but the fact is, he’s just getting really unlucky. Since reuniting with Matthews he has 19 shots (5v5 and all stats naturalstattrick.com) and 33 scoring chances.    But he’s shooting zero percent.

Matthews and Nylander on Fire

As for Nylander’s five goals on the year, who cares?  Players have no control over their shooting percentage. They will almost always shoot their average, and a brief dip is just an anomaly. Nylander has a 12% shooting percentage over 200 NHL games, and a 4.75% shooting percentage this year.

If he had the five extra goals he’s normally have, no one would be saying anything.

If you take away the first month of his season, and account for just the games in which he was up to NHL speed, Nylander has 2.14 points per 60 minutes of 5v5, despite playing on a third line with guys who can’t score for much of that time, and despite the low shooting percentage.

For context 2.14 p/60 is the same amount that Nathan MacKinnon scores, and more than Sebastion Aho, Blake Wheeler or Jamie Benn. 2.14 is top 40 scoring, which is elite, superstar, franchise player levels.

If you just look at games since teaming back up with Auston Matthews, he’s at 3.19 p/60 which is Hart territory.

The bottom line is this: Nylander is on a cheap, team-friendly contract.  He is never getting traded.  He is a franchise player, and every bit as good as Mitch Marner.

And that, kids, is why you don’t trade a franchise player who is 22 year old for a stay at home defenseman.