Toronto Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin and the Inability to Properly Evaluate Player

The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jake Muzzin from the L.A Kings on January 28th, a month before the NHL trade deadline.

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager pulled off the magnificent feat of acquiring a top-pairing blue liner in exchange for a package that did not include any of the teams top prospects.

But this is Toronto, so instead of celebrating, we have people lamenting on what might become of Carl Grundstrom (who cares?).

And because this is Toronto, people don’t even bother to measure Muzzin’s performance, instead, he gets labeled a disappointment by one uninformed TV broadcaster, and suddenly the entire Leafs Nation is ripping the guy.

It’s ridiculous.

Especially in light of his incredible performance, which we shall now get into.

Jake Muzzin

Since being acquired, Jake Muzzin has played in 27 games, averaging the second most ice time on the Leafs at even-strength and overall.   He is playing over 20 minutes per game, including time on both special teams units.

Muzzin has posted a 54% CF rating (possession) which is the best on the Leafs this season, other than Travis Dermott who played many of his minutes in a sheltered third pairing role. (All stats naturalstattrick.com)

54% possession is a borderline elite number. It means that whenever the Leafs employ Muzzin, they get 54% of the total shot attempts.  It might not sound like a lot, but if you get 54% of the shot attempts, you’ll win most of your games.  Only four teams in the NHL have a Corsi of 54% and they will all be making the playoffs.

The crazy thing about Muzzin is that he’s a play-driving machine.  Since he’s come into the NHL, he’s been the league leader, or close to it, every year in which his team has been good.  In years when he’s been on bad teams, he’s always had a strong Corsi relative to his team.

Very few, if any, defenseman drive the play like he does.

It’s been no different with Toronto, where, anytime he gets away from the absolutely brutal Nikita Zaitsev, his possession rating is 57% which is roughly what the current NHL leader, Dougie Hamilton is putting up.

At first glance, Muzzin’s shot suppression numbers aren’t great, allowing 32 per 60….but again, take him away from Zaitsev and you get………you guessed it……..the best numbers on the team.

Additionally, In 27 games, Muzzin has five goals and 16 points.  That is a 49 point pace, which is elite scoring for an NHL defenseman.

So we have an elite play driver who is scoring at an elite pace.

That means that when people say “Jake Muzzin isn’t living up to expectations”  they are wrong.  It means that when people say “Jake Muzzin is a top-four defenseman,”  they are wrong.

He’s a #1 defenseman.  At worst, a #2 top pairing defenseman.

It would be good for Babcock to get him away from Zaitsev, but realistically, he is crushing it anyways.

This isn’t my opinion either, for the record.  This is what the stats objectively tell us.

It’s a fact.

There is a serious discrepancy between how players are evaluated on TV broadcasts and how they are evaluated by actually measuring their performance.  Both Jakes on the Leafs are indicative of this problem.

Jake Muzzin, who according to my TV isn’t living up to expectations, is making it so that when he is on the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs get 54% of the shot attempts, 52% of the shots, 55% of the scoring chances and 59% of the goals.

Those are EXTREMELY strong numbers.   If we compare them to league-wide team stats, then when Jake Muzzin is on the ice, the Leafs are essentially the best team in the NHL.