Tie Goes to the Veteran Policy Is Killing the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs just finished a week in which they allowed an incredible 23 goals against.
If you want, you can take an optimistic view: The Toronto Maple Leafs are missing two of their four best defensemen, as well as Kasperi Kapanen. And out of those four games, they were very close to winning two of them. One of the games followed a Western Road trip with Monday night game, short handed, against the NHL’s best team. Another was with the back-up goalie on the second night of a back to back.
Now, nobody needs or wants excuses, but even the most pessimistic fan has to admit that it’s better than just seeing the team collapse for no reason. Amid the negativity that surrounded this team prior to this last week’s terrible play, I was tried to point out that the Leafs were a really good team, one which had just played the previous quarter of a season at a 13-4-3, which is a 119 point pace.
I think this is a really good team that, if everything goes right, could go all the way. That said, I think our most negative friends have a point: The Leafs issues are more than just allowing a lot of goals over a four game period. They are a good team, no doubt, but I think they are also a team that is deeply flawed.
While some may be quick to blame rookie GM Kyle Dubas, I think almost every single issue is something that could be corrected with the existing roster, and such, most of the blame falls on coach Mike Babcock.
I will now list several things I think could easily be corrected.
Veterans Are Killing the Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a problem, and that problem is that some of the coaches favorite players are terrible. The Leafs have four veteran players that they play all the time that constantly hurt the team.
While the Leafs are an O.K 11th in the NHL in puck-possession (shot-attempts), they are second worst in the NHL for shot-attempts allowed, third in the NHL for shots-against, and only two possible playoff teams have allowed more goals. (All stats 5v5 and from Naturalstattrick.com).
This is not a situation that can continue if the team wants to have lasting success.
A look at the individual shot-attempt percentage of all Leafs players who have skated for at least 800 minutes this season reveals that Ron Hainsey, Patrick Marleau, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev are the team’s worst possession players.
In terms of minutes and usage, this is half of the Leafs top four, and two top-nine wingers.
Ron Hainsey might be a plus/minus leader, but he is a negative in shot-attempt, shot, scoring chance and high-danger scoring chance differential. He is a plus player because his on-ice save percentage is a ridiculous .930%. He is just not a first pairing defenseman in any way, shape or form.
Patrick Marleau has 2 goals in his last 15 games. He’s spent over 400 minutes with Auston Matthews and together they had a 48.5% CF, while Matthews with anyone else is a 55% player.
Connor Brown has four 5v5 goals this season and six in total. Considering the amount of minutes he gets, that is atrocious. In his best month this year, he scored two goals.
Nikita Zaitsev is just brutal. For some reason, Babcock loves him, but he can’t score, can’t defend, doesn’t drive play and, worst of all, he neutralizes Jake Muzzin who puts up elite numbers with literally anyone else he plays with.
Marleau and Hainsey’s minutes should go to Trevor Moore and Tyler Ennis.
Zaitsev and Hainsey should reside in the press box unless the Leafs suffer even more injuries on their blueline. I can count ten better players in the system better than both of them.
Power-Play
The Toronto Maple Leafs power-play started off on fire, then it went ice-cold for months, and lately it’s been pretty good.
The Leafs have not had a very high shooting percentage, but their power play has been near or at the top of the league in shots, possession and scoring chances.
The problem with the Leafs power play is its construction.
The Leafs load up a super line, which would be fine, expect there’s two problems.
- What is the point of loading up a super line if you change it half way through?
- With all three centres on the first unit, they are almost forced to switch half way through. Even doing that, this creates a situation where you have to kill the momentum of each power-play that doesn’t score by playing the fourth line.
The Leafs should either a) Leave Kadri off the super-unit and then play that unit for the entire power play, or b) split the talent (and the centres up). One power play can have Tavares/Marner/Rielly and the other can have Matthews/Nylander/Muzzin.
It’s really not that difficult to see how this would be a more effective set up.
Breakouts
The Toronto Maple Leafs can drive you mad watching them, with their Ferrari offense, as they fail again and again to break the puck out of the defensive zone.
I’m not an expert tactician, but there’s a couple things that are just so obvious and could easily be corrected.
The long bomb breakout has got to go. The Leafs over-rely on it, and it hardly ever works. It’s pointless when carrying the puck, or making a series of short passes are far more effective.
Another thing that drives me nuts is watching the defenseman play the puck off the glass. When you do this, you have no idea where the puck is going to go, and that makes it a very low percentage play.
Finally, dumping the puck in. The Leafs aren’t a dump and chase team by any means, but they do dump the puck in sometimes and they shouldn’t.
Watching any Leafs game, William Nylander and Jake Gardiner stand out as a players who understand the importance of skating the puck out of trouble, rather than blindly throwing a huge long-bomb pass or chucking the puck off the glass.
If the Leafs would focus on short breakout passes, skating the puck out of the zone, bank passes off the boards, and avoided dumping the puck in, I think they’d play a lot less defense and subsequently cut down on their terrible shot-against numbers.
Fixing the Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a great roster, and, overall, they’ve had a pretty great season.
With that said, they allow too many shots against and play poor defensively most of the time.
I don’t think a coaching change is in order, but I do think that there are three main things that the current coach can do to improve his team.
The first is to move the poorly performing veteran players out of their top-of-the-lineup roles. Patrick Marleau and Connor Brown should never again be asked to play in the top nine. Nikita Zaitsev and Ron Hainsey should be in the press-box and only play in case of emergency.
The Leafs depth chart on defense looks like this: Rielly, Muzzin, Gardiner, Dermott, Holl, Ozhiganov, Rosen, Borgman, Marincin, Sandin, Liljegren, Hainsey, Zaitsev.
That is 11 players the Leafs can play before they should even consider playing Hainsey or Zaitsev.
The second thing to do is to get some balance on the power-play because the current set-up has too many disadvantages that amount to shooting yourself in the foot, and neutralizing one of your best weapons.
Next. The Three Best Defenseman in the NHL. dark
Finally, the Toronto Maple Leafs need to get a handle on their breakouts and stop with the long-bombs and the plays off the glass.