Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should be Favorites in Any Playoff Series

The Toronto Maple Leafs are an outstandingly deep team.

The Toronto Maple Leafs play in a division with three of the four or five best teams in the NHL, and as such, their path to the finals is preposterously difficult.

Barring a first round upset to Tampa, or some kind of collapse by Boston or themselves that sees their first round opponent become Montreal or one of the Metro teams, the Leafs will likely have to face both Boston and Tampa Bay if they want to make the Finals.

But while many people bemoan their lack of grit, or overrate the impact a declining nearly useless Wayne Simmonds or Adam McQuaid would have had, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a roster built for playoff success.

And by “built for playoff success” I mean that they are stacked in the one thing that matters.

No, not toughness.

Not body-checking, faceoffs, leadership, or any of the other nonsense that doesn’t really matter.

I am talking about depth down the middle.

And no team is deeper.

The Center of the Ice

The Leafs depth down the middle is unrivaled by any other team.  John Tavares and Auston Matthews gives them the best 1-2 punch in hockey, and then Nazem Kadri is the best third line centre that exists by about seven hundred miles.

On the fourth line they have Frederick Gauthier and his 45% possession rating. This is not ideal, and I’d like to see what Nic Petan could do in this role, but if paired with Trevor Moore, Gautheier is a 50% player.

I can live with that.  As long as the fourth line isn’t getting buried, it’s fine for 10 minutes per night, especially since, in the playoffs you’ll probably see Tavares and Matthews take on more ice time at the expense of the Guathier line.

Then, of course, finishing off the Leafs depth down the middle is Freddie Andesen.  Somehow he doesn’t get nearly the credit he deserves.  For my mind, Andersen should be runner up to Robin Lehner for the Vezina this year.

Lehner has it locked up – let’s face it, anyone who can keep that Islanders team afloat deserves a shiny trophy – but Andersen has been nearly as valuable. The Leafs allow too many shots and they employ (for some reason) both Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev.  Andersen has won them a lot of games they had no business winning and he solidifies the Leafs depth down the middle.

Conclusion

Most teams would kill for an elite centre and the Leafs have two.  At least ten teams in the NHL would use Kadri as their first line centre, and his numbers clearly place him in the top 30 overall.

No other team has a Kadri equivalent on their third line.  The fourth line won’t  play too much, and the goalie is among the best in the league.

Centre ice depth wins in the NHL, especially in the playoffs.

One thing that really gives me hope for the Leafs making a deep playoff run is the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Penguins, with Malkin-Crosby-Staal, are the only team in recent history with comparable centre-ice depth to the current Leafs roster.

They went to the Stanley Cup Final in both years where they had all three of them healthy in the playoffs.  In the Penguins other two Cup Final appearances, they had Nick Bonino putting up #1 centre numbers.

Now this is not a guarantee, and of course Boston, Chicago and LA show that there are other ways to build a team.  The Leafs however, are the only team that rivals what Pittsburgh did down the middle, and in 100% of the seasons when Pittsburgh had 3 x #1 Centres, they made the Finals.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs have a healthy Kadri, Tavaers and Matthews, I don’t think anyone will be able to beat them in seven games.  The fact is, no team can match the Leafs depth down the middle of the ice, and in a seven game series, that is going to matter way more than toughness, heaviness or anything else.