Toronto Maple Leafs: Trade Deadline Duality Part Two

The 2019 trade deadline was a relatively quiet one for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Naturally, this degree of inaction has sparked some divisive reactions within the fanbase.

One side entered the deadline hoping that Kyle Dubas would swing for the fences and acquire the top-four right-shot defenceman the organization has coveted for so long. The other, perfectly fine with how the Leafs are constructed, saw only minor moves as the best course of action.

There is merit to either argument.

On Tuesday, we tackled the first side’s perspective. Today, it’s the other side’s turn.

Why the Leafs Deadline Performance Was Good

When putting together a list of the most forgettable Toronto Maple Leafs of all time, Par Lindholm is a guaranteed lock for the top-10, right?

Everything about the 27-year-old is understated; from his arrival back in late-April, to his on-ice performance, even to his presence in the media.

Through no fault of his own, really, Lindholm’s name barely registered a blip amongst the Leafs’ fanbase, and more or less stayed that way from his first game to his last. Scour through the team’s official YouTube channel and you’ll find only 6 videos featuring Lindholm in any capacity – 5 pre/post-game scrums and a “Leaf to Leaf” special with Andreas Johnsson.

He was the very definition of a supporting piece. Or, more accurately, he was precisely the type of player you see change hands on deadline day each year.

Lindholm’s tenure with the Leafs, while technically beginning in April of 2018, lasted all of just 61 games. Throughout it, Lindholm scored his first and only NHL goal while also managing to assist on 11 others for a total of 12 points in 11:27 of nightly ice-time. Lindholm generated just 60 shots in a Leaf uniform as well – an average of less than one per game – and finished his tenure with 132 Total Shots Attempted and a shooting percentage of 1.7%.

Moving him now simply made sense.

Lindholm is set to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1st and, given the options the Leafs already have within their system, it was extremely unlikely that management would have sought to bring him back. With a parting of ways practically inevitable, this meant that Lindholm would be walking out the door in return for nothing, which happens to go against every “asset management” fibre in Kyle Dubas‘ body.

There’s not even a guarantee that Lindholm sticks with another NHL team at all for 2019-20.

His underlying numbers thus far – 46.5% CF/60 at 5v5 and -5.7 Corsi rel% – aren’t strong enough to paint him as an analytics darling and Lindholm’s overall playing style doesn’t seem to evoke the rough-and-tumble qualities responsible for sending depth-desperate teams, like the Edmonton Oilers, tripping over themselves to sign.

For the Leafs to get anything in return for Lindholm at the deadline can be seen only as a win.

Getting Nic Petan, however, just makes it even sweeter.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one; but the Leafs just paid next-to-nothing to acquire an undersized forward with a versatile skill set who boasts a sterling track record in either the Junior ranks or the AHL (in this case, it’s both), and whose scouting reports believe him to be capable of a breakout “if just given the chance”.

Do you think Dubas has a type? I think he has a type.

Petan – a former 2013 second-round pick of the Jets –  fits that bill.

At only 23-years-old, there is still some runway laying ahead on his development path, making the fact that Petan will now be joining what is arguably the most cutting-edge developmental organization in hockey an enticing prospect.

If anyone can coax out his true potential, it’s the Leafs.

Petan will also be a pending RFA in the summer, which represents a large portion of why this move was made in the first place. What Petan offers the Leafs, from an asset management perspective, is a degree of team control and free agent status that effectively guarantees his next cap number to be cost-effective. Lindholm did not.

Per CapFriendly, Petan is now eligible to receive a one-year qualifying offer from the Leafs no later than June 25th. The Leafs are likely to pursue this avenue and, given how Petan’s 2018-19 base salary of $874,124 fits the criteria to receive a 105% multiplication factor from this season to next, the price tag for Petan’s offer is expected to come in at $917,831.

If accepted, that would give the Leafs yet another depth option signed for under $1 million at their disposal.

Furthermore, Petan has not yet met the CBA requirements to guarantee himself a one-way deal, either. While Petan would still have to pass through waivers en route to the Marlies, the two-way nature of his contract would give Toronto the requisite flexibility to bury his entire cap hit in the AHL if he ultimately failed to crack the lineup.

The hope, though, is that things won’t come to that. Petan has proved to be a dynamic scorer at every level he’s played at outside the NHL – something the Leafs believe they can tap into.

In 2013, Petan finished his draft year with a whopping 126 points in 74 games for the Portland Winterhawks – including 46 goals – and followed that breakout up with an equally eye-popping 113 points in 63 games the very next season. Since leaving Junior and graduating to the professional ranks, he’s proceeded to spend two extended stints in the AHL with the Manitoba Moose. The first, coming in 2014-15, saw Petan produce 32 points in 47 games as a 21-year-old rookie. In 2017-18, Petan’s 52 points in 52 games earned him point-per-game status.

To put that into context, Andreas Johnsson was a point-per-game AHLer last season through 54 games at the age of 24. Petan did it at age 23.

Sure, the Leafs declined to upgrade their defensive holes at the trade deadline, leaving them once again prepared to enter the postseason with Top Pairing Ron Hainsey™. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t succeed, either.

In Lindholm, Dubas had an underwhelming asset on his hands who seemed destined to walk as a free agent in 5 months. Not content with losing him for nothing, Dubas instead opted to sell Lindholm to the Jets in return for a younger asset with a higher ceiling and who offered far more in the realm of team control – upgrading the Leafs’ fourth-line in the process and adding yet another cost-effective depth piece to a system barrelling head-first into the murky waters of the salary cap.

The move may not have been the splashy blockbuster fans expected. But, in a vacuum, it’s hard to argue against it.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of hockeyreference.com & hockeydb.com 

All salary information courtesy of capfriendly.com