Toronto Maple Leafs: Mike Babcock Has Not Learned

The Toronto Maple Leafs symbolize one of the most enviable situations in all of hockey.

If given the chance, I’m relatively certain that all 29 other NHL head coaches would sacrifice their first born child if it meant gaining a roster which features the likes of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Jake Gardiner, Travis Dermott, Andreas Johnsson, Nazem Kadri, Kasperi Kapanen, William Nylander, and Frederik Andersen.

Misusing that degree of talent should be impossible. There is simply no room for error in that regard. Not enough open lineup spots for any combination to be suboptimal.

Just blindly throw names at the wall and, 10 times out of 10, things will probably turn out alright. It’s really not that hard.

Mike Babcock has somehow managed to accomplish the impossible.

Before diving into the nitty-gritty of it all, though, let’s first acknowledge the recent steps Babcock has taken in the right direction.

As The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn detailed so eloquently here, Babcock made the merciful choice to lessen Ron Hainsey’s even strength ice time significantly on Thursday night, handing him the second-lowest total on the team to only Nikita Zaitsev.

He then bumped Andreas Johnsson back up to his rightful place on Auston Matthews‘ wing – where the two connected on the game’s tying goal mere seconds later – and proceeded to ride both Matthews and John Tavares for upwards of 20 minutes each by game’s end.

Having established himself as his team’s best player over the past month or so, William Nylander was deservedly rewarded with over 17 minutes of his own in a dominant performance as the Leafs’ called-upon third line centre, while the fourth line saw the ice for only 5.

Nearly all criticisms which have been levied at Babcock this season regarding the usage of his players were rectified on Thursday night. The good players played more. The bad players played less. And, perhaps most importantly, those good players actually played with other good players.

Who could have predicted that to work out?

In any other circumstance, the Leafs would have rolled through the defending Stanley Cup Champion and completed their season sweep in statement fashion, effectively easing the doubts which have now begun to centre on the malleability of Babcock’s mindset.

Of course, that’s not what happened. Frankly, it might have been for the best.

Disclaimer

The Leafs have lost ground in their division as of late. And while this isn’t news, it warrants mention nonetheless.

Thanks to a recent surge by the Boston Bruins, Toronto has now dropped to third in the Atlantic, four points back of Boston with just one game in hand, as the prospect of watching home-ice advantage slip through their grasp has fan fervour hitting a fever pitch.

Tensions are frayed, patience is thin, and no one is thinking clearly.

Which makes this the perfect time to look at Ron Hainsey.

Ron Hainsey

Ron Hainsey is 37-years-old at the moment, due to celebrate his 38th birthday before the postseason begins. Now, the vast majority of 37-year-olds, save for the Zdeno Charas of the world, don’t typically find themselves logging top pairing minutes on a Stanley Cup contending roster.

Hainsey has been doing it without interruption for the past 2 years.

So, when it comes to determining whether or not Hainsey is still suited for his current role, the requisite sample size is there, with over 160 regular season games to form a basis upon.

Hainsey crumpled under the sheer weight of his usage just last season – his body proving incapable of holding itself together over a 7-game playoff series (which the Bruins smartly took full advantage of).

To any rational observer, Hainsey’s steep decline was a red flag; a message floating down from the heavens which simply read “Hey, cut it out”.

To Babcock, however, it was the reasoning he needed to try his luck once again. Only this time, he’ll be doing so with the knowledge that 82 games of additional mileage have been shovelled onto Hainsey’s already-declining frame since.

So, yeah. Not ideal.

Things are Changing, Aren’t They?

You’re right, though.

Hainsey certainly did see the second lowest ice time of any Leaf defenceman against the Capitals. And that’s great. Superb, even. Hunky dory. Truly the bee’s knees.

But don’t believe that to be an ongoing trend. Not even for a minute.

In fact, Thursday marked just the fifth time in the Leafs’ past 20 games that Hainsey’s TOI dipped below the 19-minute mark. Over that same span, Hainsey has actually proceeded to log upwards of 21 minutes on a whopping 10 separate occasions, even venturing into 22-minute territory on 5.

Earlier this very week, Hainsey saw a total of 21:00 across 33 shifts in a 3-2 OT loss to the St. Louis Blues. And considering how he ended up missing a chunk of the game to serve a 2-minute minor, it theoretically shaved around 30 seconds off what his total could have actually been.

Seriously, what is the logic here?

Even if Hainsey’s on-ice results painted him as an elite shutdown defender (which they don’t, and we’ll get into that), grinding him into a fine white paste by mid-February serves precisely no purpose other than to actively harm Toronto’s odds of playoff success.

But that’s not the case anymore, right? I have been told that things are changing.

Hainsey’s 16:01 against Washington was actually his second shortest work day of the season, which “coincidentally” corresponded with one of the Leafs’ strongest possession efforts from the past few games.

Fantastic! This should, in theory, suggest that Babcock has now begun paring down the usage rate of his most senior defenseman as the Leafs prepare to embark upon the season’s final stretch.

Every point matters, so Babcock is adjusting accordingly. Right?

Nope. Not even close.

Hainsey landed right back in the 20-minute club on Saturday night, finishing with a healthy 21:17 spread across 30 shifts. That 21:17, by the way, was nearly 3 minutes higher than Jake Muzzin‘s service time with the Leafs facing a divisional rival on national television. Jake Gardiner saw around 3 minutes less, as well.

That’s not just a problem. It’s a catastrophe.

A loss to the Montreal Canadiens would have bumped the Leafs to within a single point of dropping into a Wild Card birth and a mere three points from falling out of the playoff picture altogether.

Given the stakes, one could argue that Saturday actually served as the closest thing to a playoff game the regular season has to offer. If there were ever a time to break out the big guns, that would have been it.

Of course, it should have really come as no surprise to learn that Travis Dermott went on to log just 12:50, the lowest ice time of any Leaf aside from the three who happen to comprise the fourth line.

In the biggest game of the year, facing a potential first-round opponent who, if victorious, would have plunged Toronto’s playoff odds into a cavern of uncertainty, Babcock actively sent Dermott over the boards a mere 7 more times than he did Frederik Gauthier.

What Does Hainsey Do?

Let’s give Hainsey the benefit of the doubt, though.

Sure, he may not be a gifted puck-mover whose overall game suits his team’s preferred playing style even remotely. But that’s ok! Sometimes, players just don’t fit. Hainsey doesn’t have to move the needle in either direction to be of any value. As long as his performance won’t actively hamper that of his teammates, the Leafs can get by, right?

Well…

Per Natural Stattrick, every single Toronto Maple Leaf who has shared a minimum of one second of ice time with Hainsey this season – save for Par Lindholm, weirdly enough – has seen their even-strength possession numbers immediately flourish upon being split apart.

Every single one. No hyperbole.

Stripped of Morgan Rielly, whom Hainsey has logged nearly 800 minutes alongside thus far, his 5v5 CF/60 tops out at a miserable 46.91%. Away from Hainsey, Rielly’s shoots up to 54.38%.

John Tavares – a stellar possession driver throughout the entirety of his entire career –  has clocked roughly 400 minutes of ice time with Hainsey this season, the most of any Leaf forward.

Without Tavares, Hainsey manages a 48.33%. Without Hainsey, Tavares leaps to a 56.14%.

You get the point.

Needless to say, any suggestion that Hainsey bestows a negative impact upon this staggeringly talented Leafs roster is not breaking new ground. It’s common knowledge now – a fact which even the most ardent, grizzled, “I haven’t shaved my Wendel moustache since 1993 out of respect” members of Leafs Nation have since come around to.

In the depths of what is arguably hockey’s most toxic and dysfunctional fanbase, the subsequent decline of Ron Hainsey is perhaps the lone topic of discussion capable of bringing both sides together.

Yes, even the ones who have majored in Biz 101.

This only highlights the problem. The trade deadline has now come and gone, and the only person who still remains unconvinced that a soon-to-be-40-year-old defenceman should not be clocking top line minutes also happens to be the only person with the authority to change it.

Mike Babcock is a good coach. He’s a smart coach. The perfect coach, in fact, to navigate hockey’s premier brand through their sorely needed and decidedly painful rebuild.

But the rebuild is over. It has been for some time.

At a certain point, Babcock will need to view the Leafs as the contender they are, rather than the developmental body they used to be. Doing so will require significant adjustment – something that won’t come easily to a coach who appears firmly set in his ways.

For the past 2 years, Babcock has been given front row seat to what every single person who even remotely follows the Toronto Maple Leafs has inevitably come around on; Ron Hainsey is not a top-four defender.

And for the past 2 years, he’s ignored it entirely.

With the Leafs now poised on the verge of contention, their organizational landscape has shifted, therein creating a new reality which bears new expectations. If Babcock fails to reach those expectations, the final years of his 8-year contract may not matter.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of hockeyreference.com, naturalstattrick.com & moneypuck.com

All standings information courtesy of NHL.com