Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Contract Irony

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Auston Matthews to a huge new deal this week.

The media covering the Toronto Maple Leafs barely acknowledged this news before moving on to the Mitch Marner contract, which was kind of crappy, if you ask me, which you didn’t have to because I have my very own column!

Mitch Marner is going to sign a contract with the Leafs and I won’t waste anyone’s time or money talking about it.  I only have this comment: the thing he said about not negotiating during the season due to it being a distraction has turned out to be pretty hilarious.

As for Matthews, I think people really need to realize a couple of things in order to be as happy about this deal as they should be.

Why Matthews Contract Is Good

Number One: 

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks are the two teams it makes the most sense to emulate.  They have combined for three of the last four, and six of the last ten Stanley Cups.

They also signed their best players to five year deals, coming off their Entry Level Contracts.  100% of those player later re-signed with them.

These are the two most successful franchises under the NHL’s current salary cap system, and so following their lead is never a bad idea.

Number Two: 

The Auston Matthews deal works opposite most second contracts.

NHL teams usually get cheaper cap hits in exchange for more length on the contract.

Let’s take Leon Draisaitl for example, because he is about as good as a player can be without actually being a ‘generational’ talent.   When his ELC was up, the Oilers signed him to an eight year deal that was worth more annually that he was worth at the time, with the hope that by the time he matured as a player, that, in conjunction with a rising salary cap, it would offer a yearly cap-hit that was below market value.

Draisaitl is 23 and an elite player who is signed for his entire prime at what is already a bargain $8.5 million annually.  Over the contract’s next six years, the salary cap (gambling and expansion) looks to hit 100 million and Draistaill will be a dirt-cheap player for what he brings to the table.

Over-pay now, give the player term, and get a cheaper contract later.  That’s how NHL player’s second contracts have worked lately for very good player like Draisaitl, Nylander, etc.

But with Auston Matthews it’s a bit different.  There is no mystery to what he will become, and therefore, no deal to be found by giving him term.

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In fact, the Leafs were lucky he’d even go five years.  If he was smart, he’d buy a crap-tonne of insurance and sign a series of year to year deals ensuring he’s one of the highest paid players in the NHL every year.

But he did them a favor, and signed for five years (which is the max length of an NBA deal, so it’s not like it’s a short-term contract).

Whereas most NHL players are going to get cheaper as the contract gets longer, it doesn’t work like this for players on Matthews’ level.  It would actually get more expensive.

So the Toronto Maple Leafs are actually saving money by not doing an eight year deal.  For all five of these years, the Leafs will save a couple million against what they would have paid on a max eight year deal.  This makes their team better and improves their chances to win.

It also coincides with John Tavares and Matthews both being in their primes.

Therefore, this is an amazing deal that the Leafs put together.  They got Matthews longer than they should have, by rights, been able to.  They saved money on what the contract would have cost, and they have one of the best players in the world on a deal that at $11.5 cap hit, is fair for this year and going to be team-friendly every year going forward.

By the fourth years, the salary cap might be over 100 million and as a percentage of the cap, Auston Matthews current cap hit, as a percentage of the cap, is only slightly higher than Dion Phaneuf’s was back when he signed for $7 million of a 65 million cap.

Matthews will be making 13% or less next year, while Phaneuf was paid about 11%.