Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Is Not the RFA to Worry About

For what seems like an eternity, the Toronto Maple Leafs fan base has had to hear about the threat of a daunting offer sheet.

First, it was William Nylander. Then it was Auston Matthews. With the Toronto Maple Leafs locking both players up to multi-year deals, the concern has now shifted to Mitch Marner.

With 63 points in 52 games, and four months remaining on his contract, there is concern among many about the increased potential of an offer sheet.

Despite this, Leafs management should not be worried about an offer sheet to Mitch Marner. Instead, they should be worried about two other pending restricted free agents: Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson.

When we think of the offer sheet, we think of high-end players. If signing someone means giving compensation, then it’s likely only going to occur with the best of the best. That’s why Leafs Nation was concerned with William Nylander, Auston Matthews, and increasingly so with Mitch Marner.

There are two reasons as to why an offer sheet to a star player the calibre of a Mitch Marner is not that concerning.

For starters, it is very unlikely you will actually lose the player. Unless you are a team with next to no cap space and an RFA accepts an offer sheet, it is a near guarantee that you will match. Even in that scenario, a team can still clear space.

Now that you’ve matched, the only reason for concern is the amount the player agreed to. In the case of Marner, matching an offer sheet and overpaying to the sound of $1-2 million is not that detrimental. Obviously, it’s not ideal, but it isn’t the end of the world either.

The real worry for both the Maple Leafs and their fan base is with pending RFAs Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson.

These are the players the Leafs cannot afford to overpay, especially next season. Both are likely to receive short term, two or three-year offers from Toronto in order to keep their average annual value (AAV) down. This should put them in the $2-million to $3-million range.

If both get to July 1 without a contract, the threat of an offer sheet becomes very real. The Leafs can afford to match an offer sheet of, say, eight years and $11-million per for Marner. It’s not ideal, but it is manageable.

An offer sheet of $5-million per for five years to Kasperi Kapanen, on the other hand, is not. In this scenario, Toronto would have to shed significant salary at a severe trading disadvantage or accept the compensation.

Teams can weaponize offer sheets to make rivals overpay for star players, but have next to no shot of actually gaining the asset. With mid-tier players, such as Kapanen and Johnsson, teams could actually acquire the player they offer sheet.

We’ve seen it in the past as well. Of the eight offer sheets signed since 2006, only two of them were signed by players you could deem to be “stars”.

Edmonton signed Thomas Vanek to a seven-year, $50-million deal in 2006, and Philadelphia signed Shea Weber to a 14-year, $110-million contract in 2012. Both were matched.

The rest? Ryan Kesler in 2006, Dustin Penner in 2007, David Backes and Steve Bernier in 2008, Niklas Hjalmarsson in 2010, and Ryan O’Reilly in 2013.

All of these offer sheets were submitted to young, mid-tier players with potential. The teams signing the player were looking to overpay in order to pry the asset away from a rival.

The only offer sheet to result in a change of team was with Dustin Penner. Penner was coming off of a 29 goal, 45 point campaign with the Stanley Cup-winning Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks were close to the cap after signing Todd Bertuzzi, and the Oilers took advantage, offering the 24-year old a five year, $21.5-million contract. Anaheim was unwilling to commit 8.5% of their cap to Penner (the equivalent to $6.8 million today), and Penner became an Oiler.

Here are how Kapanen and Johnsson compare to these past examples, with Hjalmarsson excluded due to the difference in position:

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The simplest way to prevent an offer sheet is to sign the player(s) prior to July 1. The problem for Toronto is with Marner expiring this summer as well, they cannot sign Kapanen or Johnsson prior, otherwise risking an unmatchable Marner offer sheet.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t matter all that much if Mitch Marner signs an offer sheet. He will be a Toronto Maple Leaf next season, barring something historically unforeseen.

The same cannot be said for Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, and that’s where Leafs fans worry should lie.