We have to imagine a possible future without Mitch Marner on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Kyle Dubas will try to get Mitch Marner’s cap hit down as low as possible, and to do so he will have to give up some Unrestricted Free Agency years in the process. During the second intermission of last night’s game, TSN projected Marner’s cap hit to round out around $10M alongside Auston Matthews at $11.5, both at 5-6 years in length.
Bob McKenzie also had some other caveats, but was able to create a cap-compliant Toronto Maple Leafs roster with Marner and Matthews at those figures. Mitch is currently 10th in the league with 63 points in 52 games, putting him up with the likes of Brayden Point (who is also offer sheet eligible), Blake Wheeler and David Pastrnak.
We saw with the William Nylander contract negotiations that Restricted Free Agents do not have much leverage in these negotiations. One thing that could increase their leverage is the threat of an offer sheet.
There is a common trend that UFAs are likely to receive above market value offers on July 1. What is to say that there are GMs out there that will not try to offer sheet Mitch Marner to $12M for 7 Years, beating the Maple Leafs’ projected offer not only in Salary but also term.
Don’t forget about Paul Marner; Mitch’s dad who came out in an article by Jonas Siegel of the Athletic saying “It drives our family nuts when we hear you guys all talk about who should be the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch never hardly gets any consideration.”
With players who demonstrate leadership like John Tavares (who was recently a captain on his former team), Auston Matthews and Morgan Reilly on the Toronto Maple Leafs, it becomes difficult to see Marner getting that coveted ‘C’ on his jersey.
If the captaincy is something that means so much to Mitch and his family, maybe he will look elsewhere for it.
Mitch Marner will have two options available to him come this off-season, as his agent stated they will not be discussing an extension till after the season. He can sign the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 5-6 year deal that Bob McKenzie has projected to be around $10M or he can go make more money for a longer term somewhere else by way of an offer sheet.
For any team to offer Mitch Marner anything above a total contract value of $50,741,515 or an Average Annual Value of $10,148,303, they would have to give up 4 first round draft picks. If Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs’ head office were willing to do $10M over 5 years, any offer sheet worth signing would put the team that submitted it into that top tier.
Say what you will about Kyle Dubas, but I could see him making great use of those draft picks and $10M in cap space.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to donate to The Marner Jar which you should do every time you think about Mitch Marner’s future contract. All Proceeds go to Sick Kids Hospital in Toronto.
Salary cap information courtesy of capfriendly.com