Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews Extension a Double-Edged Sword

The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially locked in their franchise face.

Yesterday afternoon, the Leafs announced that they had come to terms with Auston Matthews on a monumental contract extension set to pay him an annual average of $11.634 million for the next 5 years.

The news, of course, promptly obliterated Twitter.

After months upon months of unsubstantiated speculation about offer sheets and baseless trade rumours, Kyle Dubas now has both Matthews and John Tavares in his employ for the next half-decade to come. Three down, one to go.

The main point of contention of the deal, at least amongst fans, is the term.

This is an understandable gripe. The NHL is currently knee deep in the era of the mega-deal, where 8-year extensions have become the established norm for franchise pillars of Matthews’ ilk. Just look at what Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel –  fellow elite pivots and top draft choices – respectively committed for once their ELCs expired, for example. To understand the established precedent and then compare it to what Matthews just signed for may not be too pleasant for those Leaf fans hoping to have secured their star centre on a bargain.

Matthews, however, seems interested in setting his own precedent.

The first course of action for most people upon learning the extension’s specifics was to head straight to Cap Friendly in a frantic search for comparables. But here’s the thing: there are no comparables for this deal. At least, none that fit both the term and AAV.

William Nylander‘s freshly-inked extension is the closest thing in this regard at the moment, and that’s merely due to his pro-rated $10.27 million cap hit that is applicable for this year alone thanks to Nylander’s 3-month absence to begin the season.

McDavid and Eichel warrant further mention as well, even when considering how both signed respective 8-year deals at the exact same juncture before factoring in that McDavid’s AAV represents a higher percentage of the cap than Matthews’.

This is truly uncharted territory for pending RFAs, particularly those of Matthews’ calibre.

Signing for 5 years effectively pushes the 21-year-old superstar right to the precipice of UFA – when he’ll almost certainly have a Rocket Richard or two under his belt, and perhaps even a Hart Trophy, to cash in with on the open market.

Would 8 years have been the ideal outcome here? Absolutely. Without question. Matthews is the lifeblood of the entire Toronto Maple Leafs organization and it doesn’t take a genius to hypothesize that Dubas wants to keep him around for as long as possible.

But the general perception regarding deals of this nature is that an increase in term subsequently allows for a decrease in salary. That was not going to be the case here.

As reported by TSN’s Bob McKenzie following yesterday’s official announcement, an 8-year term for Matthews would, in fact, have accomplished the exact opposite. Sacrificing three years of UFA eligibility, directly coinciding with the middle of Matthews’ prime, would not have come cheap for Dubas & co. and, in stark contrast to previous deals along these lines, would likely have cost the team roughly $2 million more on a per year basis than they eventually locked their franchise face down too.

In this scenario, Matthews suddenly becomes the NHL’s highest paid player from a cap hit perspective and the Leafs have $2 million less of wiggle room to work with when finding new deals for each of Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen, and Andreas Johnsson this summer.

Now, $2 million may not be a gargantuan sum of money in the context of an $83 million cap, but given how tight Toronto’s cap situation projects to be for the 2019-20 season, it very well may represent the difference between keeping both of the latter two players or being forced to lose one.

To truly break this down, let’s paint a picture. This is what Dubas will be looking at when heading the summer of 2019, holding exactly $16,394,301 of room with 6 spots on the active roster to fill.

Barring (yet another) absolute meltdown from his agent, we can likely assume that Marner’s AAV will fall somewhere in the range of around $10.5 million, leaving $5,894,301 to divvy up between the 5 spots. Those 5 spots happen to include both Kapanen and Johnsson, and considering how the pair of RFAs have put together breakout campaigns for themselves this season, their ensuing demands will almost certainly come in higher than expected.

That leaves a bridge deal as the best bet for keeping both, at least in the short term.

Conservatively, we can estimate that Kapanen’s eventual cap hit will come in at roughly $2.5 million while Johnsson’s rounds out to $2.1 million – identical to what Connor Brown signed for on the heels of a 20-goal rookie year.

This leaves $1,294,301 of cap space and 3 remaining roster spots.

To remedy this, Dubas then adds Trevor Moore‘s $775,000 in next to round out the forward corps, along with Calle Rosen‘s $750,000 to solidify the blueline. With both Moore and Rosen now accounted for, their combined price tags push the Leafs over the cap by precisely $230,699 with Garret Sparks – or another cheap back up option – still left to sign.

Even if the Leafs’ brain trust manages to get the books back down to even, that gives Toronto no modicum of flexibility to make an in-season move and no financial cushion to account for any injuries.

Case in point; things are going to be tight next year.

When a team already finds themselves over the cap with a backup goaltender still yet to be signed, the importance of $2 million becomes abundantly clear.

Sure, the Leafs could have succumbed to the demands of the Matthews camp and locked him in for 8 years at a $13 million annual price tag. It would have been as easy as signing on the dotted line. But doing so would have then essentially sealed either Kapanen or Johnsson’s fate, and left no wiggle room in the aftermath of their departure.

This is why the Matthews extension is both a blessing and curse.

The mere 5-year commitment certainly hurts the team from a long-term perspective, as it walks one of the NHL’s premier young stars, who also happens to play the sport’s premier position, right to UFA status in the middle of his prime and hands him the requisite leverage to command upwards of $15 million per year in salary.

That’s going to be a headache. There’s no way around it.

In the short-term, however, the $11.634 million that Matthews will count for beginning next year is, in fact, a discount – according to McKenzie’s report – and gives Leafs’ management a window in which to keep their talented young core intact for the time being.

When it came to signing Matthews, Kyle Dubas ultimately had two options; either sacrifice roster depth in the short term for the sake of controlling his star centre long-term, or give up that long-term control in lieu of maximizing the roster’s depth in the short-term.

Dubas chose the latter.

And in opting for an immediate return rather than future certainty, Dubas is betting on himself; betting on his ability to use the aforementioned $2 million savings to build a Stanley Cup-winner before 2024, and betting that winning said Stanley Cup will convince Matthews to stay once his 5 years are up.

Now armed with half a decade of staggering depth, that Cup dream becomes are the more possible. As for what happens after that? Well, that’s a question that will need an answer 5 years from now.

Thanks for reading!

All salary information courtesy of capfriendly.com