Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner Contracts Will Dictate Team’s Future

Contract talks between Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs have reportedly picked up momentum following the All-Star break.

Some have speculated that the potential extension for Auston Matthews has been shortened from 8 years to 5-6 years, sparking the recent progress in contract negotiations.

In theory, this would reduce the average annual value of the contract because the Leafs would be purchasing fewer of Matthews’ unrestricted free agency-eligible years.

The contract situations of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been an underlying storyline throughout this season. Matthews and Marner appear poised to make somewhere in the range of $20 million/year between the two of them if they demand their full market value.

This could create significant salary cap challenges for both next season and beyond. It is beginning to become increasingly clear that the Toronto Maple Leafs will be at a disadvantage to other Stanley Cup contenders in hockey if they pay their stars full market value.

Mitch Marner

This past summer, Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning signed an 8-year extension for $9.5 million/year. Blake Wheeler of the Winnipeg Jets also signed an extension for 5 years at $8.25 million/year.

By contrast, some reports say that the Toronto Maple Leafs will have a difficult time keeping Marner’s contract under $10 million/year.

If Marner signs for more than either of Kucherov or Wheeler, despite his restricted free agent status, the Leafs will be lagging behind their competition. That is not a statement to highlight a perceived moral injustice, it is simply a matter of dollars and cents.

That said, it’s highly unlikely that the Leafs are going to make Marner the highest paid winger in the game over two players who’ve been among the best wingers in the NHL for multiple years.

Auston Matthews

In a similar fashion, if Matthews matches Connor Mcdavid’s 8-year $100 million contract ($12.5 million annually), he will have rightly earned it.

However, with the Penguins paying Sidney Crosby $8.7 million/year for the next seven years and Evgeni Malkin $9.5 million/year, it should come as no surprise if the Leafs struggle to surround Matthews with a supporting cast that can compete with the best teams in hockey.

Future of the Team

If Matthews and Marner decide that they want to be paid as much as possible on their next contracts, it will be difficult in the years to come to convince the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Travis Dermott, Jake Muzzin, and Frederik Andersen to take anything less than full market value.

In terms of winning a Stanley Cup, The Toronto Maple Leafs’ stiffest competition for the foreseeable future will be the Tampa Bay Lightning: A cohesive team that has managed to sign each of Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos for $9.5 million or less per year.

While Tampa Bay’s frequently mentioned income tax rates are slightly advantageous (37% as opposed to Toronto’s 46.16%), the Leafs’ financial freedom to front-load massive signing bonuses on contracts can largely offset any unfair salary cap advantage that Tampa Bay might have (See John Tavares‘ contract).

The divisional playoff format will likely pit the Leafs and Lightning against each other in the 2nd round of the Stanley Cup playoffs or earlier on multiple occasions in future seasons.

The narrative surrounding the team could become quickly sour if the Lightning consistently get the better of a contract-shackled Leafs team come playoff time.

This much is clear: Whichever route Matthews and Marner choose to take, their decisions will have important implications for the future success of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All contract values courtesy of CapFriendly.com