The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jake Muzzin Monday night, from the LA Kings.
Obviously, if you’re reading this, you know that the Toronto Maple Leafs finally went out and addressed a problem that has dogged the team ever since they became competitive: Being constantly out-shot.
Although the Leafs are a good possession team – currently ninth in the NHL – they allow the third most shots per 60 minutes, and are only 19th in shots-for per 60.
The Leafs allow almost three shots more than they get for every sixty minutes of 5v5 ice time. For a reference of whether that is good or bad, the best shot differential is about + 7 and the worst team is about – 7.
Basically, that is a pretty significant thing the team needed to address. Even the most casual fan with no understanding of hockey statistics can understand that the probability of winning is greater if you out-shoot your opponent.
And that is why I believe the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jake Muzzin.
They could have pursued a right-handed defensemen. We have endlessly speculated for months which right-handed defenseman the Leafs will pursue.
So why a left-handed?
Jake Muzzin
Because Jake Muzzin is the one player who will most help address the Leafs problem of constantly being outshot at 5v5. It doesn’t really matter what hand he shoots with.
Jake Muzzin is the king of puck possession.
As a rookie, Muzzin led all defensemen in the NHL with a crazy 63.14 CF%. The second best defenseman had a 57.81 CF% which in itself is a crazy high number for an entire season.
Muzzin led all NHL defenseman in puck possession in each of his first three seasons in the league. He really bombed out in his fourth season though, finishing as just the third best, with a CF % of over 57.
Fifth season, fifth best.
For five years, Jake Muzzin was the best possession defenseman in the NHL by a mile.
In the two of those years where he got 40 points he was one of the most effective defenseman in the NHL. Until the recent decline of the LA Kings, he would commonly be inserted into top-ten defenseman in the NHL conversations. He made Team Canada.
In the two years where he hasn’t been a top five possession defenseman, he’s almost 10% better, relative to his team. And he scored 42 points last year.
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Puck possession isn’t the be all end all. 40 points and being the best possession defenseman still doesn’t equate to 60 points and only slightly worse possession numbers, like Doughty was getting. So don’t get the idea I’m telling you that Muzzin is the best defenseman in the NHL.
But he is very, very good. And he addresses the exact thing the Leafs needed to address, which is their shot differential. He hits, he scores, he possesses the puck. He basically brings something for everyone.
To get him, the Leafs gave up a few lottery tickets. But anyone lamenting the cost really needs to understand how good Jake Muzzin is.
All available evidence says that if you put Jake Muzzin on a half-way decent team that he is the best possession defenseman in the NHL.
The Leafs, already ninth best at puck possession, despite never once dressing their optimal lineup yet this year, have now added the best possession blue-liner in the NHL.
I did not think the Leafs would pursue a left handed defenseman. I did not think LA would want to trade Jake Muzzin.
This trade is shocking. The Toronto Maple Leafs added an elite player without detracting from their current roster.
Without crossing the line into extreme hyperbole it is impossible for me to describe just how good a trade this was. And, the Leafs will still probably add another right hander anyways.
Stats from naturalstattrick.com and hockeydb.com