Toronto Maple Leafs: Once Again, Stop Trading Liljegren

The Toronto Maple Leafs are reportedly in the market to trade one of their most promising assets.

Take a seat, friends. It’s time we had our annual talk.

Timothy Liljegren‘s name found its way onto Craig Custance’s NHL Trade Big Board earlier this week and immediately ignited speculation as to whether or not the Leafs would opt to deal the prospect for a long-coveted top-4 defenceman. Joining Liljegren on the board were the likes of Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Dougie Hamilton. Which, if nothing else, is some elite company.

Look, there is obviously a semblance of legitimacy to all this.

This is Custance we’re talking about here; a person who has never been in the business of peddling baseless trade proposals and probably won’t be any time soon. They’re simply not his style.

Being one of hockey’s most reliable and plugged-in insiders, if Custance feels comfortable enough sticking his name to something, it likely means, nine times out of ten, the contents of that report were discussed between the members of some hockey circle in some corner of the league at some point in time.

In this case, it’s just pretty clear that the corner in question is not Toronto.

For those on the outside looking in, dealing Liljegren is the perfect quick-fix move given the Leafs’ current position.

Still just 19-years-old, Liljegren plays what has now become arguably the most sought after position in hockey (right D) and carries first-round pedigree with him, to boot. And if you don’t think the latter factors into the decision-making process of most NHL GMs, think again.

Then there’s the caveat of injury. With Liljegren currently recovering from a high ankle sprain that has not only kept him on the shelf for the past 16 games but also forced him to skip the World Juniors, he may have gained the perception of damaged goods. This, in turn, could perhaps lead opposing teams into the belief that they’d be buying low on Liljegren and, if their cards are played right, even land him for a discount.

Connecting the dots isn’t hard.

Not to mention, Toronto’s contention window is open right now. And regardless of what Kyle Dubas may have said last month, Liljegren is not projected to reach full-time NHLer status until next season at the earliest.

Why burn a contention year waiting for Liljegren to develop when you can merely capitalize on his value right now and cash in for present-day help? The Leafs are in a position to challenge for the Stanley Cup this year. If improving those odds means forfeiting the likes of Liljegren, why not take that chance?

Well, considering how this is now apparently a conversation we have on a yearly basis, let me tell you.

He’s Good

Right off the hop, let’s get one thing straight: Liljegren is good.

As the AHL’s youngest defenceman in 2017-18 by roughly an 18-month margin, Liljegren not only earned himself a spot on one of the deepest bluelines in recent American League memory, he maintained his top-six status all year long before capping a whirlwind rookie season with the Marlies’ first Calder Cup in franchise history.

But wait, there’s more!

Along the way, Liljegren also found time to set the AHL points-per-game record for an 18-year-old defenceman as well as log top-4 minutes for Team Sweden in their silver medal effort at the 2018 World Junior Championships.

That’s not shabby at all for a kid who, until 8 months ago, wasn’t even old enough to buy a drink in Canada.

But of course, like all prospects, there are areas to work on.

For starters, Liljegren’s gap control remains a work in progress and leads to a consistent struggle with defending off the rush. When operating from the point in the offensive zone, his shot falls overly prone to accuracy issues which, in turn, Liljegren tries to compensate for by forcing attempts from low percentage areas that routinely stop the play dead.

As the consensus scouting report pegged him to be one of the 2017 draft’s most graceful skaters, Liljegren has revealed himself in recent years to be far more gifted in the realm of lateral movement than straight-away speed, with the primary reasoning here stemming from his skating stance.

In the clip above, Liljegren is significantly hunched forward when moving vertically and effectively stunts the length of his strides while throwing his core off balance.

These areas, of course, do not call for panic. But if Liljegren is to ever ultimately reach his ceiling at hockey’s highest level, tweaks like these simply must be corrected.

Then again, these are merely growing pains –  the kind which plagues 99% of NHL prospects and, given how cutting-edge the Leafs’ development staff are, can be ironed out with extensive focus and work.

Poll the 30 other NHL fanbases and there’s a good chance that every single one would be head over heels to have a teenaged defenceman with Liljegren’s resume in their possession. Were he a member of, for instance, Chicago or Vegas’, system, gifs of each minute zone entry and outlet pass would clog Twitter timelines for eternity.

Which begs the question; why are Leaf fans so trigger happy to ship him out?

Two words: Rasmus Sandin.

Two Good Players

While Liljegren succeeded in capturing the mantle of “undisputed top prospect in the Leafs’ system” a year ago, a blisteringly hot start from Sandin to 2018-19 has seemingly changed that.

As a first-round pick, Sandin was always expected to be good. But few, myself included, ever saw him being this good. And while Sandin only continues to clear all expectations set for him by those both inside the organization and out, he’s quickly made a case for himself to usurp Liljegren atop Toronto’s prospect board.

Back in 2017, Liljegren was Woody. But Sandin is this year’s Buzz Lightyear; the shiny new toy Leafs Nation can’t wait to play with on Christmas morning and has them ready to toss last year’s model in a donation box before the wrapping paper is even fully torn off.

“We already have a promising teenaged defenceman of Swedish descent!”

Well, you know what’s better than one promising defenceman of Swedish descent? Two. 

Nowhere in the NHL rulebook does it explicitly limit how many good players a team can employ at a given position. Contrary to popular belief, they’re not restricted to only one. In fact, it’s perfectly legal to have two, three and, bear with me here now, even as many as four!

Wild, right? Who knew?

The source Custance uses to lay the speculative groundwork of his piece is quoted saying, “Sandin has done a good enough job to justify keeping him over Liljegren…I don’t care what Kyle Dubas says, there’s no way they can keep them all,”

Only, that line of thinking really doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Simply because one prospect manages to exceed expectations doesn’t then force the team in question to turn around and trade another. Asset management exists, after all, and Dubas seems to ascribe to that mindset more than most.

Not to mention, both Sandin and Liljegren have been in the Marlies’ lineup at the same time this season for a grand total of 11 games, none of which had them paired together.

If you remember, a Sandin – Liljegren pairing from the preseason flashed some impressive chemistry in their limited time together, and it’s that fact alone which makes it hard to picture Dubas shipping either prospect out before he’s even given a consistent stretch to judge how that chemistry translates on the Marlies.

And as for the “there’s no way they can keep them all” take, well…

Cap Crunch

With hefty extensions on the horizon for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner next season, Toronto’s cap situation is projected to be a relatively dicey one for the time being.

If you’re someone who has paid attention to this team at any point thus far, this is not news.

But in order for the Leafs to maintain visions of contention while also keeping the core intact in the process, the remainder of the roster must then be comprised of a supporting cast made almost entirely out of effective pieces signed to below-market-value deals, preferably with term.

Nowhere will these cost-effective options be more vital to their long-term success than in shoring up the Leafs’ most consistently glaring weakness; right-D.

And wouldn’t you know, Timothy Liljegren plays right-D.

In fact, he also happens to be locked into an ELC for the next three years which carries a performance bonus max of just $400,000. Even in the worst case scenario – which, funnily enough, sees Liljegren perform so far above expectations that he maxes out all of his bonuses – the most he could possibly count against the cap is a paltry $1.294 million.

To recap: at this very moment, the Leafs possess a 19-year-old RHD with top-4 potential whose ELC carries a MAXIMUM cap hit of under $1.3 million for the next three years which also project to be the very years when Toronto’s cap situation will be at its tightest.

And you want to trade this person?

Look, dealing Liljegren could make sense in a year or two when the $6.25 million from Patrick Marleau‘s deal comes off the books to hand Dubas a tad more breathing room. But to shuttle him away at this stage in his development? And directly before a looming cap crunch?

Why?

Whatever the return ends up being for Liljegren may very well bolster the Leafs’ Cup odds in the short term. But Dubas has long advocated against this, rather insisting that his focus is spent on maintaining a window which lasts years into the future.

Trading Liljegren only makes achieving that noticeably harder; if not for the simple fact that landing the RHD staple of the Leafs’ dreams won’t be achieved via Liljegren alone. That package will almost certainly require a sweetener of a first-round pick and, possibly, even another prospect.

That’s a hefty price. Suddenly, Toronto’s already thinning cupboard gets a strikingly more barren.

To forfeit such a high quantity young talent for the sole purpose of adding a proven contributor for a Cup run is precisely the type of move made by a team at the end of their contention window, not at the beginning. Which stage do you want the Leafs to be at?

So, keep Liljegren. Find out what he can be before we are forced into having this exact same conversation a year from now.

Thanks for reading!