Toronto Maple Leafs: Dougie Hamilton Rumours Statistical Analysis
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs need a right handed, top pairing defenseman, as any fan of the team is well aware.
On Saturday, on Hockey Night in Canada, it was mentioned that the Carolina Hurricanes might look to trade Defenseman Dougie Hamilton. I immediately wrote about the Toronto Maple Leafs acquiring him.
In my article, which you can check out here if you want, I stated that Dougie Hamilton might be the best defenseman in the NHL. I said that, at the very least, he was in a group with Drew Doughty, Victor Hedman, Morgan Rielly, Kris Letang, Mark Giordano, Erick Karlsson and Brent Burns.
This was met with resounding laughter by the comments section.
Which is fair – it’s a big statement, Hamilton isn’t exactly a superstar in terms of reputation, and most people here are Toronto Maple Leafs fans before they are entire NHL fans.
Fact is though, it’s a true statement. Dougie Hamilton is arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, and he’s definitely, without a doubt, a surefire top ten defenseman. That is just a fact.
But don’t take my word for it – take the following statistical analysis.
But before I get there, just one word on his reputation, as many said he is ‘bad in the room.’ This is complete B.S. The NHL has a culture problem, as anyone can tell you. Dougie Hamilton is ostensibly an introvert who, prefers reading and going to museums to partying and video games.
Like all stories of this kind, I can guarantee its 99% crap made up by a media hungry for controversy and a culture that abhors intelligence. If the worst thing you can say about a guy is that he is intelligent and cultured then I think the problem is with the reporting, not the player.
But on to the stats.
Statistical Analysis
This is just a few of the categories I think are important, feel free to add your own if you think I missed anything major. All stats are from corsica.hockey and are for the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons combined. Also, please forgive Morgan Rielly for the poor showing here, as he hasn’t been in this echelon very long, and has been cursed with very bad partners.
"Points / 60 (5v5)Burns 1.55Karlsson 1.43Hedman 1.18Letang 1.13Hamilton 1.11Rielly 1.02Giordano 0.94Doughty 0.37"
Frankly, considering his reputation, Drew Doughty’s ability to generate offense is surprisingly pathetic. In an attempt to rank the players, I’ll give eight points for a first place ranking, seven for a second place ranking etc.
"CF% (5v5) i.e Possession RatingDoughty 55.58%Hedman 54.8%Burns 54.34%Letang 54.17%Hamilton 53.82%Giordano 52.6%Karlsson 52.57%Rielly 50.1%"
Now, raw Corsi can be problematic because it doesn’t account for the fact that a good player can be on a bad team. The following is the percentage rating of a player compared to their team.
"CF REL%Karlsson 4.97%Hamilton 4.83%Hedman 4.79%Letang 4.7%Giordano 3.99%Burns 3.26%Doughty 2.31%Rielly – 1.1%"
This gives a bit better picture than raw Corsi, and again, Drew Doughty’s low ranking is really surprising.
"On-Ice Shots-Against / 60 (5v5)Giordano 27Doughty 27Hamilton 28Burns 29Letang 29Karlsson 30Hedman 31Rielly 34"
“On-Ice” stats simply mean the entire team when a given player is on the ice. As expected, most of these guys do a good job of keeping the puck away from their own goalie, despite a reputation as offensive players.
"Goals – all situationsBurns 48Hedman 38Hamilton 37Giordano 31Karlsson 29Doughty 26Rielly 25Letang 22Points – all situationsBurns 184Karlsson 165Hedman 160Doughty 124Rielly 122Letang 120Giordano 113Hamilton 106"
Other than the top three guys, we can see that there isn’t much difference between the rest of them. Especially when we take into account that Doughty (4th) has a lower points per 60 (all situations) than Hamilton, who is the lowest ranking on this list. (1.53 to 1.34 in favor of Hamilton). Hamilton simply didn’t get enough PP time to put up the raw totals of his peers here. Statistically, if he had, he’d be fourth.
"WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player)Hamilton 3.68Burns 3.52Letang 3.28Giordano 2.26Karlsson 1.95Doughty 1.73Rielly .59Hedman .37"
This is only one way to look at a player, and as we learned last week, it is flawed when players like Mitch Marner don’t rate very well. That said, you can’t throw away a stat because you don’t like the results and usually after 82 games you get a pretty good picture.
"X GF Differential (5v5 expected goal plus/minus)Hamilton 37.69Giordano 27.25Letang 25.3Burns 19.04Hedman 14.02Karlsson 10.25Doughty 7.11Rielly 1.02"
Expected Goals have been proven to be far more predictive of future performance than regular goals, because they attempt to take luck out of the equation. No stat is perfect, but this is far better than using straight +/-.
Conclusion
No statistical analysis is perfect. Like I said at the outset, you may have some stats you’d have included, and you are free to let me know about it. That said, I believe I have a pretty comprehensive look here at what makes a defenseman good. Obviously, I could have included PK Subban, John Carlson, Roman Josi or Hampus Lindholm. The point here is just to take a cross section of some of the best defenseman to find out where Hamilton ranks.
If we assign an eight to everyone who finished first in a category, a seven to everyone who finished second, and so on and so forth, we get the following rankings:
"Brett Burns 50Dougie Hamilton 44Victor Hedman 39Erik Karlsson 38Mark Giordano 36Kris Letang 35Drew Doughty 31Morgan Rielly 15"
While nothing is comprehensive, I feel this is conclusive proof that Dougie Hamilton belongs in a group of players who can be considered the best defenseman in the NHL. I said he was ‘arguably the best’ and I think the stats bear that out.
I am surprised, actually about how good Brent Burns is, and how poorly the Toronto Maple Leafs Morgan Rielly shows. Though, like I said, he hasn’t been in the elite group for as long as the others, and I am fairly certain that he is also the youngest player on this chart.
Next. 2019 Top Leafs Prospects. dark
To conclude, I stand by my statement and I maintain that the Toronto Maple Leafs should trade for Dougie Hamilton.