Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly has 40 points before Christmas.
The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Morgan Rielly fifth overall back in 2012, and when Brian Burke said that he would have chosen him with the first pick, had he had it, we all scoffed, chalking it up to the typical Burke bluster and hyperbole.
Well Brian Burke has his faults (and he’s a terrible analyst for today’s game on TV) he doesn’t get nearly enough credit for making the Leafs what they are today.
Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, JVR, Bozak, Komarov and Nazem Kadri formed a solid group of veterans for the Leafs new management to graft their core onto, and it not only helped the Leafs rebuild much faster than should have been possible, but three of those players continue to be among the best players on the Leafs today (and in Leafs history).
But back to Morgan Rielly
40 Points at Christmas
For context, 40 points for a defenseman is considered very, very good. As a total after 82 games. Last year, only 16 defenseman eclipsed 50 points, and only seven had more than 60. Washington’s John Carlson led the NHL with 68 points by a defenseman.
With four points Thursday night, Rielly now has 40 points in 35 games, which projected over a full season, is 94 points. He is currently 19th in the NHL scoring race.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have only had ten 90 point seasons in franchise history, and their all time single season defenseman scoring record was set in 1976-77 when Ian Turnbull scored 79 points.
No Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman has ever won a Norris Trophy.
Scoring at this pace, while playing pretty tough competition (though slightly toned down from the crazy levels he was facing in previous years) with a bad partner (compared to what other elite players have to play with) is actually quite incredible, despite the Leafs loaded roster.
If the season was to end today, Morgan Rielly would be, at the very least, a finalist for the Norris Trophy, and odds are he’d win it.
Rielly has a four point lead on Tomas Chabot for the league lead in points by a defenseman, and he has a positive possession rating, and a plus 18 5v5 goal differential. His play is no doubt bolstered by the 13% on-ice shooting percentage as well as a 93.5% save-percentage when he is on the ice.
So while there is definitely an element of good fortune to Rielly’s season, he’s also doing it on a run-and-gun team that allows way too many shots, and playing with the aforementioned Ron Hainsey.
You might not think Hainsey hurts him that badly, but in 486 5v5 minutes, Hainsey and Rielly combine to be a 48% possession pairing. Rielly paired with anyone else (123 minutes) is a 54% possession pairing.
The up shot is this: while Rielly is getting lucky with high percentages, he’s also being dragged down by a player who has aged out of his role.
And just in case anyone thinks Rielly is just a flash in the pan, last year despite facing what I am led to believe is the toughest competition of any #1 defenseman in the NHL, he was one of just three players to face tough competition, post a positive possession rating and 50 points.
The others: the non-Ron Hainsey paired Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty.
Morgan Rielly deserved a Norris Nomination last year.
This year he should win it.
stats from naturalstattrick.com
quanthockey.com and hockeydb.com