Toronto Maple Leafs: Assessing William Nylander’s Return to the Lineup

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander to a contract that will eventually have him on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NHL.

Despite the holdout, the Toronto Maple Leafs have locked up one of the NHL’s best young starts to a long-term contract for the majority of his prime.

But the team has lost four out of five and some fans are actually lamenting the trade of Josh Leivo to Vancouver.

Obviously, there is a lot to unpack here, so strap yourself in.

Toronto Maple Leafs, Losing, Leivo

The first thing to address is whether or not Nylander is responsible for this losing streak.  That’s an easy one: not even close.  The idea is laughable.  The Leafs might be 1-4 since he came back, but even without looking into his play, this is just silly.  The Leafs lost two of those games in overtime, and we know that overtime in the NHL is a coin-flip due to the 3v3 format.  Add in the Lightning game, where the Leafs played well and would have won 9 out of 10 times, and you have a team that could easily be 4-1 instead of 1-4.

Therefore, the return of the Nylander, and the Leafs record since his return, are just a coincidence.  It’s unfortunate, however, because the narrative plays into the absolute worst tendencies of a skittish fan base.

As for Josh Leivo, I am a huge fan, but as a 25 year old with 10 points for a career high, his trade value was zero.  Kyle Dubas said afterwards that he gave Leivo his word that if he wasn’t going to be in the lineup every night, he’d find him a better situation.  Clearly the Toronto Maple Leafs valued the contributions of Connor Brown, Par Lindholm, Andreas Johnsson and Tyler Ennis more than they did Leivo, and so they found him a place to play.

Ideally, Leiov would have provided some nice depth, but ultimately a general manager who is as good as his word is worth more than whatever slight upgrade Leivo provided.

William Nylander

Since he’s been back, Nylander has appeared to be stuck in third gear, however I don’t really know if that’s really the case or if I am just seeing what I expect to.  We have seen occasional flashes of brilliance, but overall he’s been so-so, if I am to believe my eyes.  That, however, is to be expected since he missed two months and training camp.

Since coming back, Nylander has played mostly with Marleau and Kadri on what is about ten thousand miles ahead of the NHL’s next best third line.  Kadri has been absolutely snake-bitten, but he’s been playing fantastic and appears to have awesome chemistry with both his current wingers.

When iced together, the line has a possession rating in the 60%s.  Nylander has a very strong 58% CF and so even when not at full speed, it’s clear he’s been a positive addition to the lineup.

The Leafs with Nylander on the ice are getting more shot-attempts, more shots,  more scoring chances, and more high-danger scoring chances than the other team.  They haven’t had any luck, and so they have scored just one goal together, while allowing just one as well.

But – and this is key – the shooting percentage of the Leafs with Nylander on the ice so far has been 2.27% which is almost 5x lower than what it should be.

Statistically, Nylander has been pretty awesome since he’s come back, but the pucks just aren’t going in.  Now, of course he is getting favorable deployment and easy competition/zone starts as Babcock eases him in, but someone has to play those minutes and it’s still impressive.

As Nylander’s shooting percentage normalizes, we should expect to see the point per game his stats say he’ll get.  He will get in better shape, and get his timing back, and he’ll improve his overall game, but he’ll also get harder minutes, so everything should balance out.

Even with the 2% on-ice shooting, Nylander is still putting up 2 points per 60, which is sixth on the Leafs and miles ahead of Leivo’s .76/60 while posting a CF% eight percentage points higher in similar type of minutes.

But sure, the Leafs were better off with Leivo!!

stats from naturalstattrick.com