Toronto Maple Leafs: Why Trading Leivo Was the Right Move

Josh Leivo is no longer a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And with that, one era ends while another begins.

Before we dive in here, I want to make something clear: Josh Leivo is a good hockey player.

He’s big, harbours some offensive upside, and can confidently spend time alongside practically all calibres of teammates while not looking out of place.

Leivo was a good soldier, just as I hammered home in yesterday’s breakdown of the trade, and remains a good bet to thrive in his new surroundings with the Canucks. Leivo’s loss stings a bit. An unfulfilling end for what was an ultimately unfilling tenure. I sincerely hope this fanbase appreciates the 5 years he spent in blue and white.

Now, with that out of the way, here’s why trading Leivo was unquestionably the right thing to do.

The return of William Nylander, while serving as a godsend, also gave the Leafs 24 players they needed to fit onto a roster which only allows for 23. Obviously, that’s impossible. Someone had to go. And in attempting to determine who that someone would be, a consensus formed to centre primarily around 5 distinct candidates;

Leivo, Justin Holl, Frederik Gauthier, Martin Marcincin, and Tyler Ennis.

Of those 5, Ennis was probably the least likely to hit the road all along. The 28-year-old has not only proved himself to be one of the summer’s sneakily good signing, he further encapsulates the precise type of bottom-6 acquisition a team like the Leafs will need to make year after year with a cap crunch rapidly approaching.

Ennis costs just $650,000 for this season, knows his role and plays it to a tee, and even logs time on the second power-play unit periodically. He’s earned his spot.

So, with Ennis a no-go, those 5 names then whittle down to 3. Keeping Leivo only to assuredly banish him to the press box once again meant that one of Holl, Gauthier, or Marincin would need to hit waivers, therein risking either to be lost for free.

Asset management typically dictates that, at the bare minimum, surrendering one asset and receiving zero in return is less than ideal. The Leafs were guaranteed to lose at least one asset from their roster. There was no escaping it. Therefore, they went with the move that got them one back.

Circling around to the aforementioned trio, neither player would have benefited from hitting waivers. And for varying reasons, as well. Let’s get into why.

Justin Holl

This one should be easy.

Did we not just suffer through a 5-month negotiation saga in which fans far and wide pleaded for management to trade William Nylander? And, remind me again, as my mind tends to slip in my old age, what was the number one asset those fans looked for in return?

Ah, that’s right. A right-handed, puck-moving defenceman.

Want to know what Justin Holl is? You guessed it; a right-handed, puck-moving defenceman.

Now, if you’ll allow me another reminder, could you kindly jog my memory as to why Leaf fans even believed they could justify shipping Nylander out for defensive help in the first place? It was the team’s glut of scoring wingers, right?

And what does Josh Leivo happen to be? A scoring winger? Right again!

See how little sense waiving Holl to keep Leivo would have made?

Those who were chastising the Leafs yesterday for ultimately trading their 12th best forward are the same people who led the “trade Nylander for an RHD” charge for nearly half the calendar year, ignoring in the process that Holl, the player they seemed otherwise fine with losing for free, actually fit their preferred return archetype all along.

Another thing to remember here is that the decisions pertaining to personnel movement and lineup formation are made by two entirely different people.

Kyle Dubas does not set the Leafs’ lineup, Mike Babcock does. And Mike Babcock does not choose who goes on waivers, Kyle Dubas does. Therefore, pointing to Holl’s one game of service time this year as a justifier for booting him: a) completely ignores any context and b) is probably not an accurate barometer for how the guy who ultimately chooses whether Holl stays or goes actually feels about him.

Does Holl have top-4 upside? Probably not.

But he’s still a phenomenal puck mover, remains under team control for both this year and next at a paltry 675K cap hit and plays the coveted role of right D. Giving all that up just to keep a 25-year-old winger with 6 points in 27 games to his name does not compute.

Frederik Gauthier

Frederik Gauthier‘s case for staying will, unlike him, be short, given how it centres solely around the fact that he’s a centre.

First of all, were Gauthier to have even hit waivers on Monday, another team would have undoubtedly put in a claim for him. The Athletic’s James Mirtle even speculated as much on a recent episode of the Leaf Report Podcast.

Gauthier is big, plays centre and, regardless of his stat line, harbours first-round pedigree. That is catnip to NHL GMs – a group well known for the hubris they exude toward reclamation projects. Half the General Managers in the league likely see Gauthier right now as a relatively blank canvas upon which they can paint a picture of an elite shutdown pivot.

It would be easy, if only they could just teach him to be mean. Or if they could develop his skating stride. Or if he could somehow find any semblance of an offensive touch.

If. If. If. GMs operate almost solely on ifs, and Gauthier is a 6’5″ version of one.

Then there’s the Leafs’ crop of centre depth, which, in its current state, seems perilously shallow. Outside of lines 1-3, Toronto’s inventory down the middle reads: Par Lindholm, Gauthier, then probably Adam Brooks, Adam Cracknell, Josh Jooris and…that’s it.

Yikes.

As good as he’s looked thus far, Brooks is not ready for the NHL quite yet, physically or skill-wise. Cracknell, 33-years-old and currently injured, played his last full NHL season in 2016-17 when he put up 16 points in 69 games for the Dallas Stars. That’s fine production, sure, but not exactly an enticing backup plan.

Then there’s Jooris, another vet flirting with 30 who has struggled mightily this year up against AHL competition.

Like it or not, the Leafs need Gauthier. If for no reason other than insurance. To cast him out for nothing would have been inexcusable.

Martin Marincin

Look, I’m done defending Martin Marincin at this point. Enough virtual ink has been spilt on the topic.

The 28-year-old indeed solidified himself as one of the AHL’s best defencemen last season almost entirely thanks to his unrelenting knack for barring opposing forwards entry into his own team’s zone. It has been well documented that Marincin is really, really good at preventing zone entries. And, at times, that skill has translated up at the NHL.

But that’s all he can likely offer from here on out.

The thought of waiving Marincin is undesirable not because the Leafs would risk him getting claimed, as he would almost certainly clear. No, it’s less than ideal because he’d go unclaimed and, therefore, join the Marlies, where his presence would create a number of roster headaches.

Were Marincin a right-shot, his demotion would not be a problem. The Marlies’ right side currently features the likes of Timothy Liljegren, Vincent LoVerde, Frank Corrado and Jordan Subban. Both LoVerde and Corrado are veterans who could benefit from the occasional night off, while Liljegren will be absent from mid-December to early January once the Leafs loan him to Team Sweden for the World Juniors.

They could make righty Marincin work.

Unfortunately, Marincin shoots left – a position which both the Leafs and Marlies happen to possess in bulk. The Marlies’ left side is arguably even more plentiful than their right. Calle Rosen, Andreas Borgman, Rasmus Sandin, and Sam Jardine all occupy roles of varying consistency and, save for Jardine, remain staples of the D corps.

Only, the Marlies aren’t making Marincin a frequent scratch. He has a tangible resume of thriving against AHL opposition and his arrival would absolutely serve as a needed boon for the team’s struggling penalty kill.

Marincin’s guarantee of a regular role would have to come at the expense of someone else’s.

And, considering his rookie status, that someone might end up being Sandin – whose play this season has not only earned him a rightfully defined top-6 role, but may even lead to a brief call-up to the big club down the stretch.

He’s really been that good and sitting him would be truly harmful to the first rounder’s development.

Frankly, there’s just no harm in keeping Marincin with the Leafs, if not for the sole purpose of injury insurance. He’s capable of handling sheltered, PK-centric minutes in a pinch, having proven as much over the past three years.

Dubas, hard as it may seem, made the right move.

Thanks for reading!

All salary information courtesy of CapFriendly.com