Toronto Maple Leafs: Evaluating the Josh Leivo Trade

After years of speculation and hundreds of healthy scratches, Josh Leivo is no longer a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It’s a move that needed to be made. Literally.

With William Nylander’s freshly inked contract hitting the books over the weekend, the Leafs quickly found themselves saddled with 24 players on a roster that only allowed for 23.

Something had to be done.

As was first reported by The Nation Network’s Jacob Stoller, the Leafs’ initial course of action was to quietly loan Travis Dermott to the Toronto Marlies on Sunday afternoon, part of an under the radar paper transaction.

Seeing Dermott’s name placed alongside the phrase “loaned to the Marlies” is assuredly worrisome for a good portion of fans. But not to worry, the reasoning for this is relatively clear.

Dermott was never expected to report to the Marlies. Rather, his temporary demotion was emboldened by Dermott’s status as one of the few non-superstar Leafs who holds waiver exemption, therein making him the simplest option in a logistical sense.

Sending Dermott down would be as simple as faxing in a form.

Since Toronto loaned Dermott to their AHL affiliate prior to 5:00 PM EST on Sunday, his contract, per the NHL CBA, did not officially count towards the Leafs’ active NHL roster for the entirety of said day. This ultimately achieved two things; making the Leafs a roster compliant team as of when Nylander signed and, in turn, bought Kyle Dubas an extra 24 hours to sniff out a more permanent move.

The expectation was always for Dermott to suit up for the Leafs in their next game, which kicks off on Tuesday night in Buffalo. In order to for that to happen and allow the Leafs to stay roster compliant in the process, someone else had to have been gone by 5:00 PM EST Tuesday at the latest.

Turns out, that someone ended up being Josh Leivo.

End of an Era

Let’s tackle the Leivo side of the deal first.

This was always bound to happen. You know it. I know it. Deep in his heart of hearts, I’m sure even Ian

Tulloch

Graph knew it too.

Leivo’s departure has been a very, very long time coming.

As Acting the Fulemin fascinatingly pointed out this afternoon on Twitter, 2018-19 has seen Leivo set a career high in games played (27) while the calendar still tells us we’re 22 days out from Christmas. Leivo hit the ice more in this season than in any of the prior 5 he spent in the Leafs organization. In fact, his most recent service time number is nearly double that of his next closest total (16 games in 2017-18).

Needless to say, Leivo was not a vital component of this team. Which doesn’t mean his departure carries no weight to it, either.

From the moment, Mike Babcock stepped behind the Maple Leafs bench, Leivo was seemingly thrust into a maddeningly unstable position – one a typical player would have handled with infinitely less grace.

Sure, fans could easily rationalize Leivo’s frequent healthy scratching with a “he’s getting paid almost a million dollars per year to watch games. What’s there to complain about?” mentality.

And that’s certainly how it seemed from an external perspective. But it was never that simple.

Leivo is a professional athlete. Someone who dedicated the entirety of his adolescent and adult life towards the lone goal of reaching hockey’s highest level. And once Leivo ultimately conquered that goal – doing so after 4 patiently spent seasons in the AHL – he was essentially barred from truly fulfilling it due to reasons of which were, at the time, unclear to practically all who watched.

Even in the limited ice time afforded to him, Leivo nevertheless proved himself worthy of NHL employment.

The closest Leivo would ever get to a legitimate on-ice role prior to this season came in 2016-17, when injuries forced him into logging an average of 12:34 a night, the highest per game minutes total of his career. Funnily enough, this just so happened to coincide with Leivo’s best offensive output to date as well. He quickly racked up 10 points in 13 games when given semi-regular usage, finding great success playing in the top-9 alongside Nazem Kadri.

And yet, even with near point-per-game production, it was back to the press box once Leivo’s injured teammates inevitably became healthy.

In spite of all this, Leivo miraculously never uttered a peep. Not publically, at least. Reports of a trade request from Leivo’s camp surfaced momentarily in January of last season only to be swiftly shut down by Leivo himself and then put to rest altogether via an out-of-the-blue contract extension weeks later.

Leivo was, in hockey terms, the perfect soldier. Only, not every soldier gets a happy ending.

What the Leafs are Giving Up

With just 6 points in 27 games this season, Leivo hasn’t exactly done himself any favours. To be fair, many have alternatively pointed to Leivo’s enticing shot metrics as a telling sign of a hidden impact. I’d even opt to agree.

However, favourable underlying numbers aside, you simply cannot avoid the reality that Leivo never immediately blossomed into the perennial 20-goal scorer his most ardent supporters (myself included) long thought him to be.

And there are few excuses to justify this either.

Leivo has found the back of the net just four times thus far. Not only is that undoubtedly disappointing production, but it’s particularly underwhelming given his skill set and extended usage on the Leafs’ second power-play unit.

Not to mention, Leivo’s current offensive pace is not likely due for an uptick, either. In fact, it seems relatively par-for-the-course, if not slightly unsustainable. Leivo’s shooting percentage to this point in 2018-19 sits at 10.5% and, per Hockey Reference, that lands him just a shade above the 9.5% league average.

If anything, Leivo was due for a regression.

So, look at the deal this way.

In signing Nylander, the Maple Leafs were obligated by the CBA to shed someone from their active roster. Rather than exposing one of Justin Holl; a 27-year-old RHD playing arguably the most coveted position in hockey, Frederik Gauthier; a 23-year-old centre existing within the organization’s most barren pool of positional depth, or Martin Marincin; whose presence, were he to clear, would actually withhold a number of the Marlies’ defensive prospects from the adequate playing time necessary for their development, to waivers and therefore risk losing them for nothing, Dubas charted an alternate course.

While on the topic of Marlies, they play a part in this deal too.

There are, by my estimation, at least 3 different Marlies right now who could either match Leivo’s current production or possibly even exceed it in identical usage. Trevor Moore, Mason Marchment and Carl Grundstrom are all wingers like Leivo, younger than Leivo, appear to each offer more future upside than Leivo, and will be RFAs for years to come.

Jettisoning Leivo is just smart asset management. In an immediate sense, at least.

Not only did Dubas avoid losing a valuable roster piece for nothing, he then coaxed Vancouver to offer up a younger asset (Michael Carcone) in return for one of his own that the Leafs had no intention of using long-term.

What would Leivo have realistically fetched on the open market in respect to draft picks? A fifth rounder? Maybe a fourth? The allure of a draft selection is enticing, no doubt. But they are also pure lottery tickets. Those who typically take years to develop, if they even make it that far.

Acquiring Carcone today represents a tangible return – one that can help the Marlies in an immediate capacity while likely offering the same expected rate of return of either aforementioned draft pick.

The Leafs have suitable replacements on the farm to go along with a contention window that is now firmly open. So, they acted like it. Why not?

Who The Leafs Got Back

Carcone is 22, in the midst of a breakout year with 17 points in 20 games and has emerged this season as one of AHL Utica’s best forwards.

Will he ever make the NHL? Probably not. But there’s a catch.

Becoming property of the Leafs now dictates that Carcone will join the organization which represents hockey’s most cutting-edge player development program. Not only that, but Carcone is expected to report to the Marlies where he’ll work daily with the same development staff who brought in fellow undrafted free agents in Marchment and Moore, each at similar junctures in their development to Carcone’s, and then guided them to the precipice of NHL employment within a 3-year span.

What is there to lose?

Thanks for reading!